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Information and Ethnic Politics in Africa

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  17 September 2012

Jeffrey Conroy-Krutz
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Abstract

Political scientists’ explanations for ethnic voting differ. Some have argued that the utility of ethnicity lies partly in the information that demographic cues provide about candidates, particularly in information-poor societies. However, extant research has not tested this proposition directly. This article proposes that, if part of ethnicity's utility is informational, we should expect that voters’ reliance on ethnic cues will decline when certain types of higher-quality information are available. To test this, a survey experiment was conducted in Uganda, with subjects evaluating candidates under varying informational environments. While support for co-ethnics was high when ethnicity was the only distinguishing fact about candidates, it declined when information was presented that portrayed co-ethnics negatively vis-à-vis non co-ethnics. These results suggest that informational environments can impact ethnic voting.

Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 43 , Issue 2 , April 2013 , pp. 345 - 373
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2012

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Footnotes

*

Department of Political Science, Michigan State University (email: [email protected]). The author wishes to record special thanks to Clare Ahabwe Bangirana, Susan Barongo, Julie Kakeeto, Primrose Kirose, John Kiwanuka, Sylvester Mubiru, Georgina Mugerwa, Deo Musisi, Harriet Nambi, Margaret Namukasa, Angela Nansubuga, Amina Semakula, Nicholas Ssewanyana and the staff of the Makerere Institute of Social Research for excellent research assistance in Uganda. Additionally, he would like to thank Kate Baldwin, Timothy Frye, John Huber, Macartan Humphreys, William McAllister, Eric McLaughlin, Devra Moehler, Cyrus Samii, Alex Scacco, Gwendolyn Taylor, Nicolas van de Walle, three anonymous reviewers and those attending presentations at the 2008 Midwest Political Science Association Annual Meeting, the American Political Science Association Annual Meeting in 2008, Michigan State University and Columbia University for helpful suggestions on theory and research design. Research protocols were approved by the Columbia University Institutional Review Board and the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology. This project was funded by a Doctoral Dissertation Research Improvement Grant from the National Science Foundation (SES-0720275), while a summer research grant from the Columbia University Graduate School of Arts and Sciences funded earlier fieldwork in Uganda. Replication data are available upon request from the author. Data sets are available at http://dx.doi.org/10.1017/S0007123412000300.

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55 In Makindye, the only group large enough to meet this criterion was Baganda, while in Bbaale, Baganda and Basoga did.

56 An age-squared term was included initially but dropped because of non-significance.

57 Ordinal variables for radio, television and newspaper, with possible responses of accessing each never, less than once a month, a few times a month, several times a week, or every day.

58 An ordinal variable, based on subjects’ highest level of education attained. Possible responses included no formal schooling; informal schooling only; some primary schooling; completed primary schooling; some secondary schooling; completed secondary schooling; certificate; diploma; some university; completed university; and post-university.

59 This was measured by asking subjects whether their household has the following items: a radio, a television, a mobile phone, a bicycle, a motorcycle, and an automobile. A composite variable approximating total household wealth was created with these responses, with subjects living in households owning all the items rating a 6, and those owning none rating a 0, etc.

60 Each LC2 was assigned an ethnic fractionalization score, which was obtained by subtracting its Herfindahl score from 1. In other words, FRACTj = 1−Σ sij 2 where j refers to the LC2, i to an ethnic group within the LC2 and sij to the share of each group within the LC2. Scores range from 0 to 1, with figures representing the probability that two randomly selected individuals from the LC2 will be members of different ethnic groups. Of those LC2s in which the experiment was conducted, the ELF scores ranged from 0.5037 (Lukuli) to 0.9281 (Nsambya Railway) in Makindye, and from 0.6928 (Kyerima) to 0.9051 (Kanywero) in Bbaale.

61 Lowest information vs. party ID (z = 23.4, p < 0.001), vs. crowd size (z = 21.9, p < 0.001), vs. corruption (z = 33.4, p < 0.001), vs. education (z = 33.1, p < 0.001), vs. forest-clearing position (z = 38.6, p < 0.001), vs. past performance (z = 37.8, p < 0.001).

62 Lowest information vs. party ID (z = 34.1, p < 0.001), vs. crowd size (z = 31.9, p < 0.001), vs. corruption (z = 69.1, p < 0.001), vs. education (z = 65.6, p < 0.001), vs. forest-clearing position (z = 97.7, p < 0.001), vs. past performance (z = 109.3, p < 0.001).

63 An additional note regarding the party treatment is warranted because, as discussed previously, we should not conclude that defecting from a co-ethnic, non co-partisan to support a non co-ethnic, co-partisan necessarily represents a decrease in ethnic voting, at least as defined by Horowitz (Ethnic Groups in Conflict, pp. 319–20). Two parties widely seen as favouring certain ethnic groups with sizeable samples in this study are the DP (pro-Baganda) and NRM (pro-Banyankole). Of those twelve Baganda in the sample who were DP supporters, ten (83.3 per cent) supported a non co-ethnic, fellow DP supporter under the second condition, rather than the Muganda NRM candidate. Similarly, of the twenty Banyankole in the sample who were NRM partisans, seventeen (85.0 per cent) supported the non co-ethnic, NRM candidate, rather than the Munyankole FDC candidate. However, it is impossible to tell whether these Baganda and Banyankole subjects were supporting the DP and NRM, respectively, mainly due to ethnicity (i.e., still voting ethnically) or for other reasons related to party identity.

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65 I thank an anonymous reviewer for making this point.

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68 An exception is for those subjects who opposed goods distribution.

69 All other sources combined, including print and television, accounted for less than 1 per cent.

70 Voice of Teso is owned by Captain Mike Mukula, who served as MP for Soroti Municipality between 2001 and 2006, and was re-elected in 2011. Mukula is a staunch NRM supporter, and his station was one of at least nine throughout the country that refused to air FDC advertisements for the 2011 presidential election (see Benon Herbert Oluka, ‘Nine radio stations decline Besigye ads’, Sunday Monitor (Kampala, 12 December 2010)).

71 The government temporarily closed Kyoga Veritas in 2003 for supposedly ‘seditious’ airings, while security agents allegedly operating on behalf of NRM candidate Mukula in 2006 reportedly ordered the station not to air election results (see Joseph Elunya, ‘Soroti Radio Station ordered to halt election reports’, Uganda Radio Network (23 February 2006). Online: http://ugandaradionetwork.com/a/story.php?s=3566)). After the 2011 elections, the station was accused of airings that harmed NRM candidates (see Simon Naulele, ‘Soroti Church radios sack journalists’, New Vision (Kampala, 7 March 2011)).

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73 The analysis assumes that votes were cast at polling stations at rates proportionate to each ethnic group's share of the LC2 population. This assumption, while potentially problematic, is necessary due to a lack of reliable estimates of turnout at each polling station.

74 Radio access is measured at the LC2 level, since population data are not available at the polling station level. Although radio access is, like vote totals, an aggregate, rather than an individual measure, I conceptualize this variable as a proxy for the likelihood that an individual LC2 resident receives negative information about Anyolo. As radio prevalence in the LC2 increases, even individuals who rely on word of mouth for their information will have an increased probability of receiving negative information about Anyolo, due to their neighbours’ increased exposure. Figures range from 0.14 to 0.63, with a mean of 0.40 (SD = 0.108).

75 Other major contenders in 2001, including former cabinet member Ateker Ejalu and Col. Arapai, were also Movementists.

76 Nor was there a significant correlation between non-Iteso support of Anyolo and radio prevalence (r = 0.114, p = 0.267).

77 This is not likely to result from any systematic bias against Iteso, as an ethnic group, in Soroti radio. For example, Capt. Mukula, the owner of Voice of Teso, is himself an Etesot.

78 This would have allowed inferences about whether negative information about co-ethnics was encouraging abandonment, positive information about non co-ethnics was encouraging defection, or some combination.

79 The design here only allows for testing of whether other information dampens ethnicity.

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81 In the event that a household visit failed, the enumerator visited every subsequent household until a successful interaction was completed.

82 Subjects were required to be citizens of Uganda and at least eighteen years of age.

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