Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-2plfb Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T20:31:15.891Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Governmental Responses to Terrorism in Autocracies: Evidence from China

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  25 January 2021

Philip B. K. Potter*
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
Chen Wang
Affiliation:
Department of Politics, University of Virginia, Charlottesville, VA, USA
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]

Abstract

Autocracies are widely assumed to have a counterterrorism advantage because they can censor media and are insulated from public opinion, thereby depriving terrorists of both their audience and political leverage. However, institutionalized autocracies such as China draw legitimacy from public approval and feature partially free media environments, meaning that their information strategies must be much more sophisticated than simple censorship. To better understand the strategic considerations that govern decisions about transparency in this context, this article explores the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP) treatment of domestic terrorist incidents in the official party mouthpiece – the People's Daily. Drawing on original, comprehensive datasets of all known Uyghur terrorist violence in China and the official coverage of that violence, the findings demonstrate that the CCP promptly acknowledges terrorist violence only when both domestic and international conditions are favorable. The authors attribute this pattern to the entrenched prioritization of short-term social stability over longer-term legitimacy.

Type
Article
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abrahms, M and Conrad, J (2017) The strategic logic of credit claiming: a new theory for anonymous terrorist attacks. Security Studies 26(2), 279304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Apple, RW Jr (1985) Thatcher urges press to help ‘starve’ terrorists. The New York Times, 16 July.Google Scholar
Atkinson, SE, Sandler, T and Tschirhart, J (1987) Terrorism in a bargaining framework. The Journal of Law and Economics 30(1), 121.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bailey, MA, Strezhnev, A and Voeten, E (2017) Estimating dynamic state preferences from united nations voting data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 61(2), 430456.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bandurski, D (2012) Preserving Stability. China Media Project.Google Scholar
Becquelin, N (2000) Xinjiang in the nineties. The China Journal 44, 6590.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Blanchard, B (2008) China tries to shift focus away from school collapses. Reuters, 26 May.Google Scholar
Boix, C and Svolik, M (2013) The foundations of limited authoritarian government: institutions and power-sharing in dictatorships. Journal of Politics 75(2), 300–316.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Boschee, E et al. (2018) ICEWS Coded Event Data. Harvard Dataverse, V22.Google Scholar
Bovingdon, G (2010) The Uyghurs: Strangers in Their Own Land. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, JM and Jones, BS (2004) Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Branigan, T (2008) This is not a natural disaster – this is done by humans. The Guardian, 13 May.Google Scholar
Brownlee, J (2007) Authoritarianism in an Age of Democratization. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cao, X et al. (2018a) Digging the ‘ethnic violence in China’ database: the effects of inter-ethnic inequality and natural resources exploitation in Xinjiang. China Review 18(2), 121154.Google Scholar
Cao, X et al. (2018b) Local religious institutions and the impact of interethnic inequality on conflict. International Studies Quarterly 62(4), 765781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chen, D and Ding, X (2014) How Chinese think about terrorism: a survey of Chinese attitudes in the wake of the March attack on Kunming. The Diplomat, 19 April.Google Scholar
China Internet Network Information Center (1997) Statistical Report on Internet Development in China. Available from http://www.cac.gov.cn/files/pdf/hlwtjbg/hlwlfzzkdctjbg001.pdf.Google Scholar
China Internet Network Information Center (2014) Statistical Report on Internet Development in China. Available from https://cnnic.com.cn/IDR/ReportDownloads/201411/P020141102574314897888.pdf.Google Scholar
Chung, C-P (2004) The Shanghai Co-operation Organization: China's changing influence in Central Asia. The China Quarterly 180, 9891009.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clark, H, Pinkovskiy, M and Sala-I-Martin, X (2017) China's GDP Growth May Be Understated. Cambridge, MA: National Bureau of Economic Research.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, M (ed.) (2018) Terrorism and Counter-Terrorism in China: Domestic and Foreign Policy Dimensions. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cohen, A (2006) The Dragon Looks West: China and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. Washington, DC: Heritage Foundation.Google Scholar
CPC News (2016) Xi Jinping tiguo de sange ‘xianjing dinglu’ shisha? [What are the Three Traps and Dilemmas Mentioned by Xi Jinping]. 18 May. Available from http://cpc.people.com.cn/xuexi/n1/2016/0518/c385474-28359130.html (accessed 26 June 2019).Google Scholar
Crelinsten, RD (1989) Terrorism and the media: problems, solutions, and counterproblems. Political Communication 6(4), 311339.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crenshaw, M (1981) The causes of terrorism. Comparative Politics 13(4), 379399.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cumming-Bruce, N (2018) U.N. rights officials criticize China over Muslim internments. The New York Times, 13 November. Available from advance.lexis.com/api/document?collection=news&id=urn:contentItem:5TR5-Y451-DXY4-X33H-00000-00&context=1516831 (accessed 14 July 2020).Google Scholar
Drakos, K and Gofas, A (2006) In search of the average transnational terrorist attack venue. Defense and Peace Economics 17(2), 7393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Duchâtel, M (2016) Terror overseas: understanding China's evolving counter-terror strategy. Berlin: European Council on International Relations.Google Scholar
Farnen, RF (1990) Terrorism and the mass media: a systemic analysis of a symbiotic process. Studies in Conflict and Terrorism 13(2), 99143.Google Scholar
Gaibulloev, K, Piazza, JA and Sandler, T (2017) Regime types and terrorism. International Organization 71(3), 491522.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gandhi, J (2008) Political Institutions Under Dictatorship. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, B, Wright, J and Frantz, E (2014) Autocratic breakdown and regime transitions: a new data set. Perspectives on Politics 12(2), 313331.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gehlbach, S, Sonin, K and Svolik, MW (2016) Formal models of nondemocratic politics. Annual Review of Political Science 19, 565584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerner, DJ et al. (2002) Conflict and mediation event observations (CAMEO): a new event data framework for the analysis of foreign policy interactions. New Orleans: International Studies Association.Google Scholar
Gilley, B and Holbig, H (2009) The debate on party legitimacy in China: a mixed quantitative/qualitative analysis. Journal of Contemporary China 18(59), 339358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gladney, DC (2004a) The Chinese program of development and control, 1978–2001. In Frederick Starr, S (ed.), Xinjiang: China's Muslim Borderland. Armonk, NY: Taylor and Francis, pp. 101119.Google Scholar
Gladney, DC (2004b) Responses to Chinese rule: patterns of cooperation and opposition. In Frederick Starr, S (ed.), Xinjiang: China's Muslim Borderland. Armonk, NY: Taylor and Francis, pp. 375396.Google Scholar
Goldstein, JS (1992) A conflict-cooperation scale for WEIS events data. Journal of Conflict Resolution 36(2), 369385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, MC (1991) A History of Modern Tibet, 1913-1951: The Demise of the Lamaist State. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Guha-Sapir, D, Below, R and Hoyois, P (2015) EM-DAT: International Disaster Database. Brussels: Catholic University of Louvain.Google Scholar
Hainmueller, J, Mummolo, J and Xu, Y (2019) How much should we trust estimates from multiplicative interaction models? Simple tools to improve empirical practice. Political Analysis 27(2), 163192.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hoffman, B (1997) Why terrorists don't claim credit. Terrorism and Political Violence 9(1), 16.Google Scholar
Hoffman, B (2006) Inside Terrorism. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Holbig, H and Gilley, B (2010) Reclaiming legitimacy in China. Politics and Policy 38(3), 395422.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holz, CA (2014) The quality of China's GDP statistics. China Economic Review 30, 309338.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hou, Y and Quek, K (2019) Violence exposure and support for state use of force in a non-democracy. Journal of Experimental Political Science 6(2), 120130.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huang, H, Boranbay-Akan, S and Huang, L (2019) Media, protest diffusion, and authoritarian resilience. Political Science Research and Methods, 7(1), 23–42.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ikenberry, GJ (2008) The rise of China and the future of the West: can the liberal system survive? Foreign Affairs 87, 23.Google Scholar
Jacobs, A (2016) Xinjiang seethes under Chinese crackdown. New York Times, 2 January.Google Scholar
Kaufman, A (2009) The ‘Century of Humiliation,’ Then and Now: Changing Chinese Perceptions of the International Order. Paper presented at the Annual Meeting of the American Political Science Association, Toronto.Google Scholar
Kearns, EM, Conlon, B and Young, JK (2014) Lying about terrorism. Studies in Conflict & Terrorism 37(5), 422439.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
King, G, Pan, J and Roberts, ME (2013) How censorship in China allows government criticism but silences collective expression. American Political Science Review 107(2), 326343.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
LaFree, G, Dugan, L and Miller, E (2014) Putting Terrorism in Context: Lessons from the Global Terrorism Database. Abingdon: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lai, H (2009) China's ethnic policies: political dimension and challenges. East Asian Policy 1(3), 513.Google Scholar
Laliberté, A and Lanteigne, M (eds.) (2007) The Chinese Party-State in the 21st Century: Adaptation and the Reinvention of Legitimacy, vol. 10. Abingdon: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lam, WWL (2001) China, U.S. boost ties against terrorism. CNN. October 19, 2001.Google Scholar
Lampton, DM (2001) The Making of Chinese Foreign and Security Policy in the era of Reform, 1978–2000. Palo Alto, CA: Stanford University Press.Google Scholar
Leibold, J (2014) Xinjiang Work Forum marks new policy of ‘ethnic mingling’. China Brief Volume, 19 June.Google Scholar
Li, H (2017) Xianjing yici xu shenyong [The term ‘trap’ needs to be used with caution]. People's Daily, 17 December.Google Scholar
Lorentzen, P (2014) China's strategic censorship. American Journal of Political Science 58(2), 402414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Luong, PJ (ed.) 2004. The Transformation of Central Asia: States and Societies from Soviet Rule to Independence. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Lust-Okar, E (2005) Structuring Conflict in the Arab World: Incumbents, Opponents, and Institutions. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, LJ (1985) The media's role in international terrorism. Terrorism 8(2), 127146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, TD (2001) The Affirmative Action Empire: Nations and Nationalism in the Soviet Union, 1923–1939. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mattes, M, Leeds, BA and Carroll, R (2015) Leadership turnover and foreign policy change: societal interests, domestic institutions, and voting in the United Nations. International Studies Quarterly 59(2), 280290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mattes, M and Rodriguez, M (2014) Autocracies and international cooperation. International Studies Quarterly 58(3), 527538.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ministry of Foreign Affairs of the People's Republic of China (2002) China's Position Paper on Enhanced Cooperation in the Field of Non-Traditional Security Issues. Available from https://www.fmprc.gov.cn/mfa_eng/wjb_663304/zzjg_663340/gjs_665170/gjzzyhy_665174/2612_665212/2614_665216/t15318.shtml (accessed 8 July 2019).Google Scholar
Minzner, CF (2009) Riots and cover-ups: counterproductive control of local agents in China. University of Pennsylvania Journal of International Law 31(1), 53124.Google Scholar
OECD (2019) Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) (Indicator). OECD. Available from https://data.oecd.org/leadind/consumer-confidence-index-cci.htm (accessed 19 March 2020).Google Scholar
Owyang, MT and Shell, H (2017) China's economic data: an accurate reflection, or just smoke and mirrors? The Regional Economist 25(2), 612.Google Scholar
People's Daily (1990) Wending Yadao Yiqie [Stability Above Everything Else], 6 June.Google Scholar
Potter, PBK (2013) Terrorism in China. Strategic Studies Quarterly 7(4), 7092.Google Scholar
Potter, PBK and Wang, C (2020) Replication data for: Governmental responses to terrorism in autocracies: evidence from China. Available from https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/XCN5HY, Harvard Dataverse, V1.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Qin, B, Strömberg, D and Wu, Y (2017) Why does China allow freer social media? Protests versus surveillance and propaganda. Journal of Economic Perspectives 31(1), 117140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quackenbush, C (2017) Three things to know about China's kindergarten abuse scandal. Time, 27 November.Google Scholar
Rabinovitch, S (2010) China's GDP is ‘man-made,’ unreliable: top leader. Reuters, 6 December.Google Scholar
Reed, JT and Raschke, D (2010) The ETIM: China's Islamic Militants and the Global Terrorist Threat. ABC-CLIO.Google Scholar
Reuter, OJ and Robertson, GB (2015) Legislatures, cooptation, and social protest in contemporary authoritarian regimes. The Journal of Politics 77(1), 235248.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rohner, D and Frey, BS (2007) Blood and ink! The common-interest-game between terrorists and the media. Public Choice 133(1–2), 129145.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rudelson, J and Jankowiak, W (2004) Acculturation and resistance: Xinjiang identities in flux. In Frederick Starr, S (ed.), Xinjiang: China's Muslim Borderland. Armonk, NY: Taylor and Francis, pp. 299319.Google Scholar
Sandler, T (1995) On the relationship between democracy and terrorism. Terrorism and Political Violence 7(4), 19.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sandler, T, Tschirhart, JT and Cauley, J (1983) A theoretical analysis of transnational terrorism. American Political Science Review 77(1), 3654.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schubert, G (2008) One-party rule and the question of legitimacy in contemporary China: preliminary thoughts on setting up a new research agenda. Journal of Contemporary China 17(54), 191204.Google Scholar
Shambaugh, D (2007) China's propaganda system: institutions, processes and efficacy. The China Journal 57, 2558.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shambaugh, DL (2008) China's Communist Party: Atrophy and Adaptation. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Shirk, SL (1993) The Political Logic of Economic Reform in China. Berkeley: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shirk, SL (2007) China: Fragile Superpower. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Smith, B (2005) Life of the party: the origins of regime breakdown and persistence under single party rule. World Politics 57(3), 421–451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Starr, SF (2015) Xinjiang: China's Muslim Borderland. Abingdon: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
State Council Gazette (2006) Decision of the Central Committee of the CPC on Several Major Issues Concerning the Building of a Harmonious Socialist Society. Issue No. 33.Google Scholar
Stern, RE and Hassid, J (2012) Amplifying silence: uncertainty and control parables in contemporary China. Comparative Political Studies 45(10), 12301254.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stockmann, D and Gallagher, ME (2011) Remote control: how the media sustain authoritarian rule in China. Comparative Political Studies 44(4), 436467.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swaine, MD and Henry, DP (1995) China: Domestic Change and Foreign Policy. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.Google Scholar
Swaine, MD and Tellis, AJ (2000) Interpreting China's Grand Strategy: Past. Present and Future. Santa Monica, CA: RAND.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Swanström, N (2005) China and central Asia: a new great game or traditional vassal relations? Journal of Contemporary China 14(45), 569584.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
The National People's Congress of the People's Republic of China (2018) The Counterterrorism Law of the People's Republic of China. Available from http://www.npc.gov.cn/zgrdw/npc/xinwen/2018-06/12/content_2055871.htm (accessed 14 July 2020).Google Scholar
Truex, R (2016) Focal points, dissident calendars, and preemptive repression. Journal of Conflict Resolution 63(4), 10321052.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wang, D (2018) Zhongguo gaige kaifang weishenme Chenggong [Why China's open and reform succeeded]. Zhong Guo Ji Jian Jian Cha 18(23).Google Scholar
Wang, Y and Minzner, C (2015) The rise of the Chinese security state. The China Quarterly 222, 339359.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weber, I and Jia, L (2007) Internet and self-regulation in China: the cultural logic of controlled commodification. Media. Culture & Society 29(5), 772789.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weiss, C (2016) Turkistan Islamic Party continues to train children in Syria. Threat Matrix, 7 March.Google Scholar
Weiss, JC (2014) Powerful Patriots: Nationalist Protest in China's Foreign Relations. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkinson, P (1997) The media and terrorism: a reassessment. Terrorism and Political Violence 9(2), 5164.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wilkinson, P (2001) Terrorism Versus Democracy: The Liberal State Response. London: Frank Cass.Google Scholar
Wilson, MC and Piazza, JA (2013) Autocracies and terrorism: conditioning effects of authoritarian regime type on terrorist attacks. American Journal of Political Science 57(4), 941955.Google Scholar
Womack, B (2005) Democracy and the governing party (执政党): a theoretical perspective. Journal of Chinese Political Science 10(1), 2342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wong, E (2009) Clashes in China Shed Light on Ethnic Divide. The New York Times, 7 July.Google Scholar
Yu, H (2006) From active audience to media citizenship: the case of post-Mao China. Social Semiotics 16(2), 303326.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhao, T (2010) Social cohesion and Islamic radicalization: implications from the Uighur insurgency. Journal of Strategic Security 3(3), 3952.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zhao, Y (2009) Rethinking Chinese media studies: history, political economy and culture. In Thussu DK (ed.), Internationalizing media Studies, pp. 189209. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Zhu, Y (2011) ‘Performance legitimacy’ and China's political adaptation strategy. Journal of Chinese Political Science 16(2), 123140.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Potter and Wang supplementary material

Potter and Wang supplementary material

Download Potter and Wang supplementary material(File)
File 2.4 MB
Supplementary material: Link

Potter and Wang Dataset

Link