Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-ndw9j Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T21:17:23.671Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa’s Emerging Democracies: Evidence from Kenya

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  24 August 2017

Jeremy Horowitz
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Who are Africa’s swing voters? This article argues that in settings where ethnicity is politically salient, core and swing are defined by whether ethnic groups have a co-ethnic leader in the election. For members of ethnic groups with a co-ethnic in the race, there is typically less uncertainty about which party or candidate will best represent the group’s interests. For members of groups without a co-ethnic in the race, uncertainty is often greater, making these voters potentially more receptive to campaign persuasion and more likely to change voting intentions during the campaign. Consistent with these expectations, panel data from Kenya’s 2013 presidential election shows that voters from groups without a co-ethnic in the race were more than two and a half times more likely to change their voting intentions during the campaign period.

Keywords

African politicselectionspolitical behaviorswing votersKenya
Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 49 , Issue 3 , July 2019 , pp. 901 - 921
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2017 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Government Department, Dartmouth College (email: [email protected]). For suggestions and feedback, I gratefully acknowledge three anonymous reviewers, Leo Arriola, Karen Ferree, Jeff Conroy-Krutz, Elena Gadjanova, Kris Inman, Brendan Nyhan, Yusaku Horiuchi, Ryan Jablonski, Kristin Michelitch, Carolyn Logan, seminar participants at Dartmouth, Northwestern and SOAS, and conference participants at APSA, MPSA and ASA. For help in designing and implementing the panel survey in Kenya, I thank Melissa Baker and the staff at TNS-RMS in Nairobi. For research assistance, I thank Peter Saisi, Alex Minsk, Miriam Kilimo and Precious Kilimo. Data replication sets are available in Harvard Dataverse at: http://doi:10.7910/DVN/ZYCCZM and online appendices are available at https://doi.org/doi:10.1017/S0007123417000011.

References

Arcenaux, Kevin. 2007. I’m Asking for Your Support: The Effects of Personally Delivered Campaign Messages on Voting Decisions and Opinion Formation. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 2 (1):43–65.Google Scholar
Arriola, Leonardo R. 2012. Multiethnic Coalitions in Africa: Business Financing of Opposition Elections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Baker, Andy, Ames, Barry, and Renno, Lucio. 2006. Social Context and Campaign Volatility: Networks and Neighborhoods in Brazil’s 2002 Election. American Journal of Political Science 50 (2):382–399.Google Scholar
Bartels, Larry. 1993. Message Received: the Political Impact of Media Exposure. American Political Science Review 87 (2):267–285.Google Scholar
Berelson, Bernard R., Lazarsfeld, Paul F., and McPhee, William N.. 1954. Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Bleck, Jamie, and Van de Walle, Nicolas. 2012. Valence Issues in African Elections: Navigating Uncertainty and the Weight of the Past. Comparative Political Studies 46 (11):1394–1421.Google Scholar
Boas, Taylor C., and Hidalgo, F. Daniel. 2011. Controlling the Airwaves: Incumbency Advantage and Community Radio in Brazil. American Journal of Political Science 55 (4):869–885.Google Scholar
Branch, Daniel, and Cheeseman, Nic. 2006. The Politics of Control in Kenya: Understanding the Bureaucratic-Executive State, 1952–78. Review of African Political Economy 107:11–31.Google Scholar
Burgess, Robin, Jedwab, Remi, Miguel, Edward, Morjaria, Ameet, and Padró i Miquel, Gerard. 2015. The Value of Democracy: Evidence from Road Building in Kenya. American Economic Review 105 (6):1817–1851.Google Scholar
Bwayo, Philip. 2013. Raila Urges Uhuru to Donate ‘Family’ Land. The Nation, February 21, p. 8.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Campbell, James E. 2001. Presidential Election Campaigns and Partisanship. In American Political Parties: Decline or Resurgence? edited by Jeffrey E. Cohen, Richard Fleisher and Paul Kantor, 11–29. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
Casey, Katherine. 2015. Crossing Party Lines: The Effects of Information on Redistributive Politics. American Economic Review 105 (8):2410–2448.Google Scholar
Carlson, Elizabeth. 2015. Ethnic Voting and Accountability in Africa: A Choice Experiment in Uganda. World Politics 67 (2):353–385.Google Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M. 1995. The Contextual Effects of Race on White Voter Behavior: The 1989 New York City Mayoral Election. Journal of Politics 57 (1):221–228.Google Scholar
Chandra, Kanchan. 2004. Why Ethnic Parties Succeed: Patronage and Ethnic Headcounts in India. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Chauchard, Simon. 2016. Unpacking Ethnic Preferences: Theory and Micro-Level Evidence from Northern India. Comparative Political Studies 49 (2):253–284.Google Scholar
Cheeseman, Nic, Lynch, Gabrielle, and Willis, Justin. 2014. Democracy and Its Discontents: Understanding Kenya’s 2013 Elections. Journal of Eastern African Studies 8 (1):2–24.Google Scholar
Conroy-Krutz, Jeffrey K. 2013. Information and Ethnic Politics in Africa. British Journal of Political Science 43 (2):345–373.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip. 1964. The Nature of Belief Systems in Mass Publics. In Ideology and Discontent, edited by David Apter, 206–261. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
DellaVigna, Stefano, and Kaplan, Ethan. 2007. The Fox News Effect: Media Bias and Voting. Quarterly Journal of Economics 122 (3):1187–1234.Google Scholar
Delli Carpini, Michael X., and Keeter, Scott. 1996. What Americans Know about Politics and Why It Matters. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad, and Harrison, Lauren. 2010. Cross-cutting Cleavages and Ethnic Voting: An Experimental Study of Cousinage in Mali. American Political Science Review 104 (1):21–39.Google Scholar
Fearon, James. 2003. Ethnic and Cultural Diversity by Country. Journal of Economic Growth 8 (2):195–222.Google Scholar
Ferree, Karen E. 2011. Framing the Race in South Africa: The Political Origins of Racial Census Elections. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Fitzgerald, John, Gottschalk, Peter, and Moffitt, Robert. 1998. An Analysis of Sample Attrition in Panel Data. Journal of Human Resources 33 (2):251–299.Google Scholar
Flores-Macias, Francisco. 2009. Electoral Volatility in 2006. In Consolidating Mexico’s Democracy, edited by Jorge I., Domingez, Chappell Lawson and Alejandro Moreno, 191–208. Baltimore, MA: Johns Hopkins University Press.Google Scholar
Franck, Raphael, and Rainer, Ilia. 2012. Does the Leader’s Ethnicity Matter? Ethnic Favoritism, Education, and Health in Sub-Saharan Africa. American Political Science Review 106 (2):294–325.Google Scholar
Fridy, Kevin S. 2012. Where Are Ghana’s Swing Voters? A Look at the Voters Responsible for Alternating Power in One of Africa’s Most Successful Democracies. Africa Review 4 (2):107–121.Google Scholar
Greene, Kenneth F. 2011. Campaign Persuasion and Nascent Partisanship in Mexico’s New Democracy. American Journal of Political Science 55 (2):398–416.Google Scholar
Harris, Adam. 2015. When Voting is Not Black and White: Using Ethnic Proximity to Predict Political Preferences. Working paper, Gothenburg: University of Gothenburg.Google Scholar
Haugerud, Angelique. 1993. The Culture of Politics in Modern Kenya. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Hillygus, D. Sunshine, and Jackman, Simon. 2003. Voter Decision Making in Election 2000: Campaign Effects, Partisan Activation, and the Clinton Legacy. American Journal of Political Science 47 (4):583–596.Google Scholar
Hillygus, D. Sunshine, and Shields, Todd. 2008. The Persuadable Voter: Wedge Issues in Presidential Campaigns. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Donald L. 1985. Ethnic Groups in Conflict. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Jeremy. 2012. Campaigns and Ethnic Polarization in Kenya. Ph.D. dissertation, San Diego: University of California.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Jeremy. 2016. The Ethnic Logic of Campaign Strategy in Diverse Societies: Evidence from Kenya. Comparative Political Studies 49 (3):324–356.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Jeremy. 2017. Replication Data for: Ethnicity and the Swing Vote in Africa's Emerging Democracies: Evidence from Kenya. Available from http:doi:10.7910/DVN/ZYCCZM, Harvard Dataverse, V1, UNF:6:rbdn1UyFnHWxSzI1FPm+5g==.Google Scholar
Huckfeldt, Robert, and Sprague, John. 1995. Citizens, Politics, and Social Communication. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Ichino, Nahomi, and Nathan, Noah L.. 2013. Crossing the Line: Local Ethnic Geography and Voting in Ghana. American Political Science Review 107 (2):344–361.Google Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, and Kinder, Donald. 1987. News That Matters: Television and American Opinion. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Iyengar, Shanto, and Simon, Adam F.. 2000. New Perspectives and Evidence on Political Communication and Campaign Effects. Annual Review of Psychology 51:149–169.Google Scholar
Jablonski, Ryan S. 2014. Does Aid Buy Votes? How Electoral Strategies Shape the Distribution of Aid. World Politics 66 (2):293–330.Google Scholar
Jackson, Robert H., and Rosberg, Carl G.. 1984. Personal Rule: Theory and Practice in Africa. Comparative Politics 16 (4):421–442.Google Scholar
Kaufmann, Karen M., Petrocik, John R., and Shaw, Daron R.. 2008. Unconventional Wisdom: Facts and Myths about American Voters. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Kpsang, Wyclieff. 2013. Cord Calls for Tolerance as Crowd Turns Unruly. The Nation, February 24.Google Scholar
Kramon, Eric, and Posner, Daniel N.. 2016. Ethnic Favoritism in Primary Education in Kenya. Quarterly Journal of Political Science 11 (1):1–58.Google Scholar
Ladd, Jonathan McDonald, and Lenz, Gabriel S.. 2009. Exploiting a Rare Communication Shift to Document the Persuasive Power of the News Media. American Journal of Political Science 53 (2):394–410.Google Scholar
Lawson, Chappell, and McCann, James. 2004. Television News, Mexico’s 2000 Elections and Media Effects in Emerging Democracies. British Journal of Political Science 35:1–30.Google Scholar
Lynch, Gabrielle. 2014. Electing the ‘Alliance of the Accused’: The Success of the Jubilee Alliance in Kenya’s Rift Valley. Journal of Eastern African Studies 8 (1):93–114.Google Scholar
MacArthur, Julie. 2008. How the West Was Won: Regional Politics and Prophetic Promises in the 2007 Kenya Elections. Journal of Eastern African Studies 2 (2):227–241.Google Scholar
Makiche, Edwin, and Otieno, Rawlings. 2013. CORD Ends Rift Tour with Calls for a United Vote. The Standard, February 18, p. 4.Google Scholar
Mayer, William G. 2006. The Swing Voter in American Presidential Elections. American Politics Research 35 (3):358–388.Google Scholar
Mwajefa, Mwakera. 2013. Uhuru Vows to Resolve Land Issues. The Nation, February 17, p. 8.Google Scholar
Nathan, Noah L. 2016. Local Ethnic Geography, Expectations of Favoritism, and Voting in Urban Ghana. Comparative Political Studies 49 (14):1896–1929.Google Scholar
Ngige, Francis. 2013. Raila, Kalonzo Lead Campaign in Meru. The Standard, February 15, p. 10.Google Scholar
Oyugi, Walter O. 1997. Ethnicity in the Electoral Process: The 1992 General Election in Kenya. African Journal of Political Science 2 (1):41–69.Google Scholar
Posner, Daniel N. 2005. Institutions and Ethnic Politics in Africa. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Prempeh, Kwasi H. 2008. Presidents Untamed. Journal of Democracy 19 (2):109–123.Google Scholar
Reilly, Benjamin. 2006. Political Engineering and Party Politics in Conflict-Prone Societies. Democratization 13 (5):811–827.Google Scholar
Sayagie, George. 2013. PM Woos Maa with Land Pledge. The Nation, February 23, p. 6.Google Scholar
Sunday Nation Team. 2013. Uhuru: We Will Address the Thorny Land Question. The Nation, February 24, p. 8.Google Scholar
Throup, David. 1987. The Construction and Destruction of the Kenyatta State. In The Political Economy of Kenya, edited by Michael G. Schatzberg, 33–74. New York: Praeger Publishers.Google Scholar
Wantchekon, Leonard. 2003. Clientelism and Voting Behavior: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Benin. World Politics 55 (3):399–422.Google Scholar
Wantchekon, Leonard, and Fujiwara, Thomas. 2013. Can Informed Public Deliberation Overcome Clientelism? Experimental Evidence from Benin. American Economic Journal: Applied Economics 5 (4):241–255.Google Scholar
Weghorst, Keith R., and Lindberg, Staffan I.. 2013. What Drives the Swing Voter in Africa? American Journal of Political Science 57 (3):717–734.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 2004. Floating Voters in the U.S. Presidential Election, 1948–2000. In Studies in Public Opinion: Attitudes, Nonattitudes, Measurement Error, and Change, edited by Willem E. Saris and Paul M. Sniderman, 166–214. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Horowitz supplementary material 1

Appendix

Download Horowitz supplementary material 1(PDF)
PDF 213.6 KB
Supplementary material: Link

Horowitz Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/ZYCCZM
Link