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The Electoral Cycle and Patterns of American Politics

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2009

Paul Allen Beck
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Extract

The relationship between citizens and leaders is the core concern of democratic theory and the primary focus of students of democratic politics. Competitive elections are typically assigned the principal role in structuring this relationship. They are a means by which the public can make government officials accountable and influence the policy directions of government. The case for how elections should link public and leaders is a familiar one. Not so obvious is the strength of this link, particularly the extent to which mass electoral forces may make for fundamental changes in the behaviour of leaders and the policies of governments.

Type
Research Article
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 9 , Issue 2 , April 1979 , pp. 129 - 156
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1979

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References

1 For various typologies of American elections, see Campbell, Angus, ‘A Classification of Presidential Elections’, in Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E., eds., Elections and the Political Order (New York: Wiley, 1966), pp. 63–77Google Scholar; Lichtman, Allan J., ‘Critical Election Theory and the Reality of American Presidential Politics, 1916–1940’, American Historical Review, LXXXI (1976), 317–50CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Pomper, Gerald, ‘Classification of Presidential Elections’, Journal of Politics, XXIX (1967), 535–66.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

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12 The two Eisenhower presidential victories are the exception which proves the rule. The distribution of party loyalties in the electorate was highly stable during these two ‘deviating’ presidential elections and into the early 1960s.

13 Pomper, , ‘Classification of Presidential Elections’Google Scholar, and Key, V. O., ‘A Theory of Critical Elections’, Journal of Politics, XVII (1955), 3–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar, locate the beginning of the New Deal as early as 1928 for selected areas of New England. Virtually all other scholars have preferred later dates. Those locating it between the Crash of 1929 and the 1932 election are: Burnham, , Critical Elections and the Mainsprings of American PoliticsGoogle Scholar; Clubb, Jerome M. and Allen, Howard W., ‘The Cities and the Election of 1928: Partisan Realignment’, American Historical Review, LXXIV (1969), 1205–20CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Lichtman, , ‘Critical Election Theory…’Google Scholar; and Sellers, Charles, ‘The Equilibrium Cycle in Two-Party Polities’, Public Opinion Quarterly, XXX (1965), 16–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar A few have even placed the realignment after the 1932 election: Shively, W. Phillips, ‘A Reinterpretation of the New Deal Realignment’, Public Opinion Quarterly, XXXV (1971–1972), 621–4CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Shover, John L., ‘The Emergence of a Two-Party System in Republican Philadelphia, 1924–1934’, Journal of American History, LX (1974), 985–1002CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Sundquist, James L., Dynamics of the Party System (Washington, D.C.: The Brookings Institution, 1973).Google Scholar

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56 See Crewe, Ivor, Särlvik, Bo and Alt, James, ‘Partisan Dealignment in Britain, 1964–1974’, British Journal of Political Science, VII (1977), 129–90CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Crewe, Ivor, ‘Prospects for Party Realignment: An Anglo-American Comparison’Google Scholar (paper presented at the 1977 Convention of the American Political Science Association).

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58 While recognizing the role of leadership in determining the nature of each electoral period, this interpretation clearly presumes that electoral changes are the cause, rather than the effect, of governmental changes. This presumption finds some support in the temporal ordering of the different types of changes, but in most cases it is impossible (as usual) to sort out cause from effect. The important variables in the operation of political systems simply cannot be isolated for causal analysis.