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The Decomposition of Electoral Bias in a Plurality Election

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 January 2009

G. Gudgin  and
P. J. Taylor
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Extract

This paper describes an empirical procedure for analysing the difference between the proportion of votes a major party attracts and the proportion of seats it subsequently wins in a plurality election. This difference will be referred to as the electoral bias with respect to that particular party at the election being analysed:

B = S — V, (1)

where S is the seat proportion and V the vote proportion gained by the party. This bias is the basic concept underlying much of the debate about electoral reform but curiously it has been an under-researched topic in political science literature. Apart from a small continuing debate over the cubic law of seat proportions and some analyses of Australian and New Zealand elections most attention in election studies has been concerned with determining the proportion of votes rather than the subsequent proportion of seats.

Type
Notes and Comments
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 10 , Issue 4 , October 1980 , pp. 515 - 521
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 1980

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References

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5 Taylor, P. J. and Gudgin, G., ‘The Myth of Non-Partisan Cartography: A Study of Electoral Biases in the English Boundary Commission's Redistribution for 1955–1970’, Urban Studies, xiii (1976), 13–25CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Gudgin, G. and Taylor, P. J., Seats, Votes and the Spatial Organisation of Elections (London: Pion, 1979).Google Scholar

6 Kendall, and Stuart, , ‘The Law of Cubic Proportions in Election Results’.Google Scholar

7 Gudgin, and Taylor, , Seats, Votes and the Spatial Organization of Elections.Google Scholar

8 Gudgin, and Taylor, , Seats, Votes and the Spatial Organization of Elections, Table 2.1, p. 23.Google Scholar

9 For further discussion see Gudgin, G. and Taylor, P. J., ‘Electoral Bias and the Distribution of Party Voters’, Transactions, Institute of British Geographers, LXIII (1974), 53–73CrossRefGoogle Scholar and Gudgin, and Taylor, , Seats, Votes and the Spatial Organization of Elections, Chap. 4.Google Scholar

10 For some alternative suggestions see Taylor, P. J., ‘The Changing Geography of Representation in Britain’, Area, xi (1980), 289–94Google Scholar and Johnston, R. J., ‘Regional Variations in the 1979 General Election Results for England’, Area, xi (1980), 294–7.Google Scholar