Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-8ctnn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T07:23:13.566Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Candidate Ethnicity and Vote Choice in Britain

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 April 2014

Stephen D. Fisher ,
Anthony F. Heath ,
David Sanders  and
Maria Sobolewska
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article develops and tests a set of theoretical mechanisms by which candidate ethnicity may have affected the party vote choice of both white British and ethnic minority voters in the 2010 British general election. Ethnic minority candidates suffered an average electoral penalty of about 4 per cent of the three-party vote from whites, mostly because those with anti-immigrant feelings were less willing to vote for Muslims. Ethnic minority voter responses to candidate ethnicity differed by ethnic group. There were no significant effects for non-Muslim Indian and black voters, while Pakistani candidates benefited from an 8-point average electoral bonus from Pakistani voters.

Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 45 , Issue 4 , October 2015 , pp. 883 - 905
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2014 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Department of Sociology, University of Oxford (email: [email protected]); Institute for Social Change, University of Manchester and Department of Sociology, University of Oxford (email: [email protected]); Department of Government, University of Essex (email: [email protected]); School of Social Sciences, University of Manchester (email: [email protected]). The authors would like to thank Per Block and Nicole Martin for assistance with the coding of candidate ethnicity, and Jonathan Mellon for help with census data. Previous versions of this article were presented in Manchester, Oxford and at the ECPR General Conference in Reykjavik. We are grateful to participants at those events, especially Jean Benoit Pilet, and also Nicole Martin, Michael Traugott and the anonymous reviewers for helpful comments. This work was supported by funding from ESRC award ES/G038341/1. Data replication sets are available at http://dx.doi.org/doi:10.1017/S0007123413000562.

References

Allport, Gordon Willard. 1954. The Nature of Prejudice. Cambridge, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Arrow, Kenneth J. 1998. What Has Economics to Say About Racial Discrimination? The Journal of Economic Perspectives 12 (2):91–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Avery, James M. Fine, Jeffrey A.. 2012. Racial Composition, White Racial Attitudes, and Black Representation: Testing the Racial Threat Hypothesis in the United States Senate. Political Behavior 34 (3):391–410.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Banducci, Susan A., Donovan, Todd Karp, Jeffrey A.. 2004. Minority Representation, Empowerment, and Participation. The Journal of Politics 66 (2):534–556.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barreto, Matt A. 2007. ¡Sí Se Puede! Latino Candidates and the Mobilization of Latino Voters. American Political Science Review 101 (3):425–441.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Becker, G. 1957. The Economics of Discrimination. Chicago: Chicago University Press.Google Scholar
Benson, Brett V., Merolla, Jennifer L. Geer, John G.. 2011. Two Steps Forward, One Step Back? Bias in the 2008 Presidential Election. Electoral Studies 30 (4):607–620.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bergh, Johannes Bjørklund, Tor. 2011. The Revival of Group Voting: Explaining the Voting Preferences of Immigrants in Norway. Political Studies 59 (2):308–327.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bird, Karen, Saalfeld, Thomas Wüst, Andreas M.. eds. 2011. The Political Representation of Immigrants and Minorities: Voters, Parties and Parliaments in Liberal Democracies. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Black, Jerome H. Erickson, Lynda. 2006. Ethno-Racial Origins of Candidates and Electoral Performance: Evidence from Canada. Party Politics 12:541–561.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bobo, Lawrence Gilliam, Franklin D. Jr. 1990. Race, Sociopolitical Participation, and Black Empowerment. American Political Science Review 84 (2):377–393.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowyer, Benjamin T. 2009. The Contextual Determinants of Whites’ Racial Attitudes in England. British Journal of Political Science 39 (3):559–586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buttice, Matthew K. Milazzo, Caitlin. 2011. Candidate Positioning in Britain. Electoral Studies 30 (4):848–857.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Butler, Daniel M. Broockman, David E.. 2011. Do Politicians Racially Discriminate Against Constituents? A Field Experiment on State Legislators. American Journal of Political Science 55 (3):463–477.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Rosie Cowley, Philip. 2013. What Voters Want: Reactions to Candidate Characteristics in a Survey Experiment. Political Studies.Google Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M. 1995. The Contextual Effects of Race on White Voter Behavior: The 1989 New York City Mayoral Election. The Journal of Politics 57 (1):221–228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, Harold, Sanders, David, Stewart, Marianne, Whiteley, Paul. 2012. British Election Study in Person Pre and Post Election Survey Data [computer file]. Available from http://www.bes2009-10.org, accessed 15 June 2012.Google Scholar
Clarke, Harold, Sanders, David, Stewart, Marianne, Whiteley, Paul. 2010. British Election Study Campaign Internet Panel Survey Data [computer file]. Available from http://www.bes2009-10.org, accessed 23 June 2010.Google Scholar
Collet, Christian. 2005. Bloc Voting, Polarization, and the Panethnic Hypothesis: The Case of Little Saigon. The Journal of Politics 67 (3):907–933.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cowley, Philip. 2013. Why Not Ask the Audience? Understanding the Public's Representational Priorities. British Politics 8 (2):138–163.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Creegan, Chris Robinson, Chloe. 2008. Prejudice and the Workplace. In British Social Attitudes: The 24th Report, edited by Alison Park, John Curtice, Katarina Thomson, Miranda Phillips, Mark Johnson and Elizabeth Clery, 127–138. London: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Curtice, John, Fisher, Stephen Ford, Robert. 2010. Appendix 2: An Analysis of the Results. In The British General Election of 2010, edited by Dennis Kavanagh and Philip Cowley, 385–426. Basingstoke: Palgrave MacMillan.Google Scholar
Curtice, John, Fisher, Stephen Steed, Michael. 2005. Appendix 2: The Results Analysed. In The British General Election of 2005, edited by Dennis Kavanagh and David Butler, 235–259. Basingstoke: Palgrave Macmillan.Google Scholar
Curtice, John Steed, Michael. 1997. Appendix 2: The Results Analysed. In The British General Election of 1997, edited by David Butler and Dennis Kavanagh, 295–325. Basingstoke: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Cutler, Fred. 2002. The Simplest Shortcut of All: Sociodemographic Characteristics and Electoral Choice. The Journal of Politics 64 (2):466–490.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dancygier, Rafaela. 2010. Immigration and Conflict in Europe. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Field, Clive D. 2011. Revisiting Islamophobia in Contemporary Britain: Opinion-Poll Findings for 2007–10. In Islamophobia in the West: Measuring and Explaining Individual Attitudes, edited by Marc Helbling, 147–162. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Fieldhouse, Edward Cutts, David. 2008. Diversity, Density and Turnout: The Effect of Neighbourhood Ethno-Religious Composition on Voter Turnout in Britain. Political Geography 27:530–548.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ford, Robert. 2011. Acceptable and Unacceptable Immigrants: How Opposition to Immigration in Britain is Affected by Migrants’ Region of Origin. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 37 (7):1017–1037.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ford, Robert Goodwin, Matthew J.. 2010. Angry White Men: Individual and Contextual Predictors of Support for the British National Party. Political Studies 58 (1):1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Garbaye, Romain. 2002. Ethnic Minority Participation in British and French Cities: A Historical-Institutionalist Perspective. International Journal of Urban and Regional Research 26 (3):555–570.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Andrew. 1995. The ‘Logic’ of Positive Action? Ethnic Minority Representation in Britain after the 1992 General Election. Party Politics 1 (2):275–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geddes, Andrew. 2001. Explaining Ethnic Minority Representation: Contemporary Trends in the Shadow of the Past. British Elections and Parties Review 11 (1):119–135.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goodhart, David. 2012. Making Sense of Bradford West. Prospect Magazine. Available at http://www.prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/george-galloway-bradford-west-bloc-voting-labour-ethnic-minority/#.UuFGpnk4ljk, accessed 1 July 2013.Google Scholar
Griffin, John D. Keane, Michael. 2006. Descriptive Representation and the Composition of African American Turnout. American Journal of Political Science 50 (4):998–1012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan L. 2001. White Residents, Black Incumbents, and a Declining Racial Divide. American Political Science Review 95 (3):603–617.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, Anthony F., Fisher, Stephen D., Sanders, David Sobolewska, Maria. 2011. Ethnic Heterogeneity in the Social Bases of Voting at the 2010 British General Election. Journal of Elections, Public Opinion & Parties 21 (2):255–277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, Anthony, Fisher, Stephen D., Sanders, David, Sobolewska, Maria. 2012. British Election Study Ethnic Minority Survey, 2010 [computer file]. Colchester, Essex: UK Data Archive [distributor], April 2012. SN: 6970, http://dx.doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-6970-1, accessed 1 December 2012.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Heath, Anthony F., Fisher, Stephen D., Rosenblatt, Gemma, Sanders, David Sobolewska, Maria. 2013. The Political Integration of Ethnic Minorities in Britain. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hewstone, Miles, Rubin, Mark Willis, Hazel. 2002. Intergroup Bias. Annual Review of Psychology 53 (1):575–604.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Highton, Benjamin. 2004. White Voters and African American Candidates for Congress. Political Behavior 26 (1):1–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 1989. Strategic Politicians and the Dynamics of US House Elections, 1946–86. American Political Science Review 83 (3):773–793.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juenke, Eric Gonzalez. Preuhs, Robert R.. 2012. Irreplaceable Legislators? Rethinking Minority Representatives in the New Century. American Journal of Political Science 56 (3):705–715.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kam, Cindy D. 2007. Implicit Attitudes, Explicit Choices: When Subliminal Priming Predicts Candidate Preference. Political Behavior 29 (3):343–367.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirkup, James. 2011. Tory Chief Baroness Warsi Attacks ‘Bigotry’ Against Muslims. The Telegraph 19 January.Google Scholar
Laurence, Jonathan Maxwell, Rahsaan. 2012. Political Parties and Diversity in Western Europe. In Immigrant Politics: Race and Representation in Western Europe, edited by Terri Givens and Rahsaan Maxwell, 13–31. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Le Lohé, Michel J. 1993. Ethnic Minority Candidates in General Elections. The Political Quarterly 64 (1):107–117.Google Scholar
Le Lohé, Michel J. 1998. Ethnic Minority Participation and Representation in the British Electoral System. In Race and British Electoral Politics, edited by Shamit Saggar, 74–97. London: UCL Press.Google Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., Tien, Charles Nadeau, Richard. 2010. Obama's Missed Landslide: A Racial Cost? PS: Political Science and Politics 43 (1):69–76.Google Scholar
Long, J. Scott Freese, Jeremy. 2005. Regression Models for Categorical Dependent Variables Using Stata, 2nd ed. College Station, TX: Stata Press.Google Scholar
Lublin, David I. 1994. Quality, Not Quantity: Strategic Politicians in US Senate Elections, 1952–1990. The Journal of Politics 56 (1):228–241.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lublin, David, Brunell, Thomas L., Grofman, Bernard Handley, Lisa. 2011. Has the Voting Rights Act Outlived Its Usefulness? In a Word, ‘No’. Legislative Studies Quarterly 34 (4):525–553.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mcdermott, Monika L. 1998. Race and Gender Cues in Low-Information Elections. Political Research Quarterly 51 (4):895–918.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Michon, Laure Tillie, Jean. 2011. The Netherlands. In The Political Representation of Immigrants and Minorities: Voters, Parties and Parliaments in Liberal Democracies, edited by Karen Bird et al., 76–79. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Modood, Tariq. 1992. Not Easy Being British. Stoke-on-Trent: Trentham.Google Scholar
Mortimore, Roger. 2002. Effect of Candidate Ethnicity in the British General Elections of 1997 and 2001. Available from http://www.ipsos-mori.com/newsevents/ca/308/Effect-Of-Candidate-Ethnicity-In-The-British-General-Elections-Of-1997-And-2001.aspx, accessed 7 November 2011.Google Scholar
Muttarak, Raya Heath, Anthony. 2010. Who Intermarries in Britain? Explaining Ethnic Diversity in Intermarriage Patterns. The British Journal of Sociology 61 (2):275–305.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Norris, Pippa. 2010. British General Election Constituency Results Release 5.0. Available from http://www.hks.harvard.edu/fs/pnorris/Data/Data.htm, accessed 30 June 2010.Google Scholar
Norris, Pippa, Geddes, Andrew Lovenduski, Joni. 1992. Race and Parliamentary Representation. In British Elections and Parties Yearbook 1992, edited by David Broughton, Ivor Crewe, David Denver and Pippa Norris, 92–110. London: Harvester Wheatsheaf.Google Scholar
Operation Black Vote. 2008. How to Achieve Better BME Political Representation. London: Government Equalities Office.Google Scholar
Peach, Ceri. 1996. Does Britain Have Ghettos? Transactions of the Institute of British Geographers 21 (1):216–235.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pettigrew, Thomas F. 1998. Intergroup Contact Theory. Annual Review of Psychology 49 (1):65–85.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Philpot, Tasha S. Walton, Hanes. 2007. One of Our Own: Black Female Candidates and the Voters who Support Them. American Journal of Political Science 51 (1):49–62.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rallings, Colin Thrasher, Michael. 2007. British Electoral Facts, 1832–2006. Aldershot: Ashgate.Google Scholar
Robinson, W. 1950. Ecological Correlations and the Behavior of Individuals. American Sociological Review 15 (3):351–357.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ruedin, Didier. 2009. Ethnic Group Representation in a Cross-National Comparison. The Journal of Legislative Studies 15 (4):335–354.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saggar, Shamit Geddes, Andrew. 2000. Negative and Positive Racialisation: Re-Examining Ethnic Minority Political Representation in the UK. Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 26 (1):25–44.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saggar, Shamit Heath, Anthony. 1999. Race: Towards a Multicultural Electorate? In Critical Elections: British Parties and Voters in Long-Term Perspective, edited by Geoffrey Evans and Pippa Norris, 102–147. London: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Saalfeld, Thomas Kyriakopoulou, Kalliopi. 2011. Presence and Behaviour: Black and Minority Ethnic MPs in the British House of Commons. In The Political Representation of Immigrants and Minorities: Voters, Parties and Parliaments in Liberal Democracies, edited by Karen Bird et al., 230–249. Abingdon: Routledge.Google Scholar
Sigelman, Carol K., Sigelman, Lee, Walkosz, Barbara J. Niz, Michael. 1995. Black Candidates, White Voters: Understanding Racial Bias in Political Perceptions. American Journal of Political Science 39 (1):243–265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sobolewska, Maria. 2013. Party Strategies, Political Opportunity Structure and the Descriptive Representation of Ethnic Minorities in Britain. West European Politics 36 (3):615–633.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Solomos, John Back, Les. 1995. Race, Politics and Social Change. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Speaker's Conference on Parliamentary Representation. 2009. Speaker's Conference on Parliamentary Representation – Final Report. Available from http://www.publications.parliament.uk/pa/spconf/239/23907.htm#a12, accessed 1 June 2011.Google Scholar
Statham, Paul. 1999. Political Mobilisation by Minorities in Britain: Negative Feedback of ‘Race Relations’? Journal of Ethnic and Migration Studies 25 (4):597–626.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stegmaier, Mary, Lewis-Beck, Michael S. Smets, Kaat. 2013. Standing for Parliament: Do Black, Asian and Minority Ethnic Candidates Pay Extra? Parliamentary Affairs 66 (2):268–285.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Squire, Peverill. 1992. Challenger Quality and Voting Behavior in US Senate Elections. Legislative Studies Quarterly 17 (2):247–263.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tajfel, Henri. 1982. Social Psychology of Intergroup Relations. Annual Review of Psychology 33:1–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tate, Katherine. 1991. Black Political Participation in the 1984 and 1988 Presidential Elections. American Political Science Review 85 (4):1159–1176.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teney, Celine, Jacobs, Dirk, Rea, Andrea Delwit, Pascal. 2010. Ethnic Voting in Brussels: Voting Patterns Among Ethnic Minorities in Brussels (Belgium) During the 2006 Local Elections. Acta Politica 45 (3):273–297.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Terkildsen, Nayda. 1993. When White Voters Evaluate Black Candidates: The Processing Implications of Candidate Skin Color, Prejudice, and Self-Monitoring. American Journal of Political Science 37 (4):1032–1053.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Train, Kenneth. 2003. Discrete Choice Methods with Simulation. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voas, David Ling, Rodney. 2008. Religion in Britain and the United States. In British Social Attitudes: The 26th Report, edited by Alison Park, John Curtice, Katarina Thomson, Miranda Phillips, Elizabeth Clery, and Sarah Butt, 39–64. London: Sage.Google Scholar
Voci, Alberto. 2010. The Link Between Identification and In-group Favouritism: Effects of Threat to Social Identity and Trust-Related Emotions. British Journal of Social Psychology 45 (2):265–284.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wells, Anthony. 2011. 9/11 Ten Years On. Available from http://yougov.co.uk/news/2011/09/10/911-ten-years/ Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E. 1965. The Development and Persistence of Ethnic Voting. American Political Science Review 59 (4):896–908.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wood, Martin, Hales, Jon, Purdon, Susan, Sejersen, Tanja, Hayllar, Oliver. 2009. A Test for Racial Discrimination in Recruitment Practice in British Cities. Department for Work and Pensions Research Report 607.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: File

Fisher Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material

Download Fisher Supplementary Material(File)
File 17.6 KB
Supplementary material: File

Fisher Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material

Download Fisher Supplementary Material(File)
File 550.6 KB
Supplementary material: File

Fisher Supplementary Material

Supplementary Material

Download Fisher Supplementary Material(File)
File 1.5 MB