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Anticipating War? War Preparations and the Steps-to-War Thesis

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  23 June 2016

Susan G. Sample
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Abstract

This study addresses what it means, theoretically and diplomatically, to argue that states anticipate war. The ‘steps-to-war’ thesis contends that territorial disputes are high salience issues, but war is relatively unlikely unless state policies, such as arms buildups, directly increase the probability of war. This framework contrasts with the argument that these policies simply reflect underlying conflict, seen as the primary cause of both policies and war. The historical analysis here indicates that states do ‘anticipate’ war, but, at least in the case of wars related to ongoing territorial conflicts, it is theoretically trivial: states anticipate war, engaging in final preparations after their relations have deteriorated over time, and the process occurs in ways predicted by the steps-to-war theory.

Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 48 , Issue 2 , April 2018 , pp. 489 - 511
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2016 

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Footnotes

*

School of International Studies, Department of Political Science, University of the Pacific (email: [email protected]).

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