Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-l7hp2 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-24T16:34:31.852Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Implementing the Peace: The Aggregate Implementation of Comprehensive Peace Agreements and Peace Duration after Intrastate Armed Conflict

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  16 November 2015

Madhav Joshi  and
Jason Michael Quinn
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The signing of a comprehensive peace agreement (CPA) is often seen as a historic milestone in a peace process, and its implementation takes a highly legitimized set of reforms and puts it front and center in national politics. This article examines the aggregate implementation of CPAs signed since 1989 and future conflict behavior between the negotiating parties and between the government and non-signatory groups. It argues that implementation is both a peace-building process and an outcome that normalizes political relations between hostile groups, solves commitment problems and addresses the root causes of civil conflict. Statistical tests utilizing new data on the implementation of CPAs support the argument. The extent to which an agreement is implemented is shown to have significant long-term effects on how long peace lasts – an effect that applies not only to the signatories of the agreement, but also to the government and non-signatory groups.

Type
Articles
Information
British Journal of Political Science , Volume 47 , Issue 4 , October 2017 , pp. 869 - 892
Copyright
© Cambridge University Press 2015 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

*

Kroc Institute for International Peace Studies, University of Notre Dame (emails: [email protected]; [email protected]). This research was partially supported with grants from the United States Institute of Peace (149-06F) and the National Science Foundation (0921818). Data, replication files and online appendices are available at https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataverse/BJPolS and http://peaceaccords.nd.edu/.

References

Axelord, Robert. 1984. The Evolution of Cooperation. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Bell, Christine. 2000. Peace Agreements and Human Rights. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Berdal, Mats, and Ucko, David, eds. 2009. Reintegrating Armed Groups After Conflict: Politics, Violence and Transition. London and New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modeling: A Guide for Social Scientists. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Brancati, Dawn. 2006. Decentralization: Fueling the Fire or Dampening the Flames of Ethnic Conflict and Secessionism? International Organization 60 (3):651–685.Google Scholar
Brzoska, Michael. 2003. Development Donors and the Concept of Security Sector Reform. Geneva: Geneva Centre for the Democratic Control of Armed Forces.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph M., and Morrow, James D.. 2005. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Call, Charles T., and Stanley, William. 2001. Protecting the People: Public Security Choices After Civil Wars. Global Governance 7 (2):151–172.Google Scholar
Cederman, Lars-Erik, Wimmer, Andres, and Min, Brain. 2010. Why Do Ethnic Groups Rebel? New Data and Analysis. World Politics 62 (1):87–119.Google Scholar
Collier, Paul. 2000. Policy for Post-Conflict Societies: Reducing the Risks of Renewed Conflict. Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Darby, John. 2001. The Effects of Violence on Peace Processes. Washington, DC: United States Institute of Peace Press.Google Scholar
DeRouen, Karl, Lea, Jenna, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2009. The Duration of Civil War Peace Agreements. Conflict Management and Peace Science 26 (4):367–387.Google Scholar
DeRouen, Karl, Ferguson, Mark J., Norton, Samuel, Hwan Park, Young, Lea, Jenna, and Streat-Bartlett, Ashley. 2010. Civil War Peace Agreement Implementation and State Capacity. Journal of Peace Research 47 (3):333–346.Google Scholar
Downs, George, and John Stedman, Stephen. 2002. Evaluating Issues in Peace Implementation. In Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements , edited by Stephen John Stedman, Donald Rothchild and Elizabeth M. Cousens, 50–52. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.Google Scholar
Doyle, Michael W., and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2000. International Peacebuilding: A Theoretical and Quantitative Analysis. American Political Science Review 94 (4):779–801.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doyle, Michael W., and Sambanis, Nicholas. 2006. Making War and Building Peace: United Nations Peace Operations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. Rationalist Explanations for War. International Organization 49 (3):379–414.Google Scholar
Fortna, Virginia Page. 2004. Peace Time: Cease-Fire Agreements and the Durability of Peace. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gurses, Mehmet, and David Mason, T.. 2008. Democracy Out of Anarchy: The Prospects for Post-Civil-War Democracy. Social Science Quarterly 89 (2):315–336.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline A. 1999. Explaining the Stability of Negotiated Settlements to Intrastate Wars. Journal of Conflict Resolution 43 (1):3–22.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline A., and Hoddie, Matthew. 2003. Institutionalizing Peace: Power Sharing and Post-Civil War Conflict Management. American Journal of Political Science 47 (2):318–332.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Caroline A., and Hoddie, Matthew. 2007. Crafting Peace: Power-Sharing Institutions and the Negotiated Settlement of Civil Wars. University Park: Pennsylvania State University Press.Google Scholar
Hartzell, Carolina A., Hoddie, Matthew, and Rothchild, Donald. 2003. Stabilizing the Peace After Civil War: An Investigation of Some Key Variables. International Organization 55 (1):183–208.Google Scholar
Hayner, Priscilla B. 2010. Unspeakable Truths: Transitional Justice and the Challenge of Truth Commissions. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Karlsen, Joakim, Mokleiv Nygård, Håvard, Strand, Håvard, and Urdal, Henrik. 2013. Predicting Armed Conflict, 2010–2050. International Studies Quarterly 57 (2):250–270.Google Scholar
Hegre, Håvard, Ellingsen, Tanja, Gates, Scott, and Petter Gleditsch, Nils. 2001. Toward a Democratic Civil Peace? Democracy, Political Change, and Civil War, 1816–1992. American Political Science Review 95 (1):33–48.Google Scholar
Hoddie, Matthew, and Hartzell, Caroline A.. 2003. Civil War Settlements and the Implementation of Military Power-Sharing Arrangements. Journal of Peace Research 40 (3):303–320.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holm, Tor Tanke, and Barth Eide, Espen, eds. 2000. Peacebuilding and Police Reform. London: Frank Cass Publishers.Google Scholar
Hultman, Lisa, Kathman, Jacob, and Shannon, Megan. 2013. United Nations Peacekeeping and Civilian Protection in Civil War. American Journal of Political Science 57 (4):875–891.Google Scholar
Jarstad, Anna K., and Nilsson, Desiree. 2008. From Words to Deeds: The Implementation of Power-Sharing Pacts in Peace Accords. Conflict Management and Peace Science 25 (3):206–223.Google Scholar
Joshi, Madhav. 2010. Post-Civil War Democratization: Promotion of Democracy in Post-Civil War States, 1946–2005. Democratization 17 (5):826–855.Google Scholar
Joshi, Madhav. 2013. United Nations Peacekeeping, Democratic Process, and the Durability of Peace After Civil Wars. International Studies Perspectives 14 (3):362–382.Google Scholar
Joshi, Madhav, and Darby, John. 2013. Introducing the Peace Accords Matrix (PAM): A Database of Comprehensive Peace Agreements and their Implementation, 1989–2007. Peacebuilding 1 (2):290–308.Google Scholar
Joshi, Madhav, and David Mason, T.. 2011. Civil War Settlements, Size of Governing Coalition, and Durability of Peace in Post-Civil War States. International Interactions 37 (4):388–413.Google Scholar
Kang, Seonjou, and Meernik, James. 2005. Civil War Destruction and the Prospects for Economic Growth. Journal of Politics 67 (1):88–109.Google Scholar
Lederach, John Paul. 2005. The Moral Imagination: The Art and Soul of Building Peace. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lyons, Terrence. 2005. Demilitarizing Politics: Elections on the Uncertain Road to Peace. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Manning, Carrie. 2004. Armed Opposition Groups into Political Parties: Comparing Bosnia, Kosovo, and Mozambique. Studies in Comparative International Development 39 (1):54–76.Google Scholar
Marshall, Monty G., Gurr, Ted Robert, and Jaggers, Keith. 2013. Polity IV Project, Political Regime Characteristics and Transitions, 1800–2012. Available from http://www.systemicpeace.org/polity/polity4.htm, accessed 1 May 2013.Google Scholar
Mason, T. David, Gurses, Mehmet, Brandt, Patrick T., and Quinn, J. Michael. 2011. When Civil Wars Recur: Conditions for Durable Peace After Civil Wars. International Studies Perspectives 12 (2):171–189.Google Scholar
Mattes, Michaela, and Savun, Burcu. 2010. Information, Agreement Design, and the Durability of Civil War Settlement. American Journal of Political Science 54 (2):511–524.Google Scholar
Mohsin, Amena. 2003. The Chittagong Hill Tracts, Bangladesh: On the Difficult Road to Peace. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nilsson, Desirée. 2008. Partial Peace: Rebel Groups Inside and Outside of Civil War Settlements. Journal of Peace Research 45 (4):479–495.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Organization of the Islamic Conference. 2006.Report of the OIC Secretary-General on the Question of Muslims in Southern Philippines. OIC/33-ICFM/2005/MM/SG/REP.2. Jeddah, Saudi Arabia: Organization of the Islamic Conference.Google Scholar
Ottmann, Martin, and Vüllers, Johannes. 2015. The Power-Sharing Event Dataset (PSED): A New Dataset on the Promises and Practices of Power-Sharing in Post-Conflict Countries. Conflict Management and Peace Science 32 (3):327–350.Google Scholar
Philippine Statistical Authority. 2013. Annual Per Capita Poverty Threshold and Poverty Incidence Among Families, by Region. Available from http://www.nscb.gov.ph/secstat/d_income.asp, accessed 20 December 2013.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1996. Uncertainty, Shifting Power, and Appeasement. American Political Science Review 90 (4):749–756.Google Scholar
Quinn, Jason M., Mason, T. David, and Gurses, Mehmet. 2007. Sustaining the Peace: Determinants of Civil War Recurrence. International Interactions 33 (2):167–193.Google Scholar
Roeder, Philip G., and Rothchild, Donald S., eds. 2005. Sustainable Peace: Power and Democracy After Civil Wars. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.Google Scholar
Salehyan, Idean, and Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian. 2006. Refugees and the Spread of Civil War. International Organization 60 (2):335–366.Google Scholar
Schnabel, Albrecht, and Ehrhart, Hans-Georg, eds. 2005. Security Sector Reform and Post-Conflict Peacebuilding. New York: United Nations University Press.Google Scholar
Sisk, Timothy D. 2009. International Mediation in Civil Wars: Bargaining with Bullets. New York: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Söderberg, Mimmi Kovacs. 2007. From Rebellion to Politics: The Transformation of Rebel Groups to Political Parties in Civil War Peace Processes. Uppsala: Uppsala University Press.Google Scholar
Stedman, Stephen J. 1997. Spoiler Problems in Peace Processes. International Security 22 (2):5–53.Google Scholar
Stedman, Stephen John, Rothchild, Donald S., and Cousens, Elizabeth M., eds. 2002. Ending Civil Wars: The Implementation of Peace Agreements. New York: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Themnér, Lotta, and Wallensteen, Peter. 2013. Armed Conflicts, 1946–2012. Journal of Peace Research 50 (4):509–521.Google Scholar
Uppsala Conflict Data Program. 2012. UCDP Conflict Encyclopedia, Uppsala University. Available from www.ucdp.uu.se/database, accessed 1 December 2012.Google Scholar
Villanueva, Cesar, and Aguilar, George. 2008. The Reintegration of the Moro National Liberation Front in Mindanao: Mini Case Study. Centre for International Cooperation and Security, University of Bradford.Google Scholar
Wagner, Robert Harrison. 2000. Bargaining and War. American Journal of Political Science 44 (3):469–484.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1997. The Critical Barrier to Civil War Settlement. International Organization 51 (3):335–364.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 1999. Designing Transitions from Civil War: Demobilization, Democratization, and Commitments to Peace. International Security 24 (1):127–155.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2002. Committing to Peace: The Successful Settlement of Civil Wars. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Walter, Barbara F. 2004. Does Conflict Beget Conflict? Explaining Recurring Civil War. Journal of Peace Research 41 (3):371–388.Google Scholar
World Bank. 2013. World Development Indicators . Washington, DC: World Bank.Google Scholar
Zeeuw, Jeroen de, ed. 2008. From Soldiers to Politicians. Transforming Rebel Movements After Civil War. London: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Zeeuw, Jeroen de, and Kumar, Krishna, eds. 2006. Promoting Democracy in Post Conflict Societies. Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner Publishers.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Joshi and Quinn supplementary material

Appendix

Download Joshi and Quinn supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 85.4 KB