The UK defined benefit pension scheme landscape has changed dramatically over the last few decades. During this period of change, conflicting views regarding the measurement of both assets and liabilities has made communication challenging. In turn, this has led to an under appreciation of risk and often suboptimal decision making. This paper seeks to draw together a variety of contrasting views to provide a coherent framework for stakeholders to meet pension scheme obligations over time.

The proposed framework encourages agreement between both scheme sponsors and trustees towards a common target through a well articulated plan or “flight path”. In addition, the proposed flight path structure provides a common basis underpinning the measurement of both pension obligations and the risks inherent in any plan to meet those obligations.

This abstract relates to the following paper:

HatchettJ., HurdM. and ClacherI.Meeting defined benefit pension obligations: measurement, risk and flight paths ‐ Abstract of the Edinburgh discussionBritish Actuarial Journal, doi:10.1017/S1357321712000335

This abstract relates to the following paper:

HatchettJ., HurdM. and ClacherI.Meeting defined benefit pension obligations: measurement, risk and flight paths ‐ Abstract of the London discussionBritish Actuarial Journal, doi:10.1017/S1357321712000335

The UK Pension Protection Fund (PPF) was established in April 2005 to protect the pensions of members of UK private sector defined benefit pension schemes which have insufficient assets and whose corporate sponsor fails. The Fund takes over the pension scheme assets and assumes responsibility for the payment of compensation to the former members of the scheme. The PPF is funded by a levy on the population of eligible schemes. This paper discusses the application of Enterprise Risk Management principles and techniques to the unique situation of the PPF. The elements of the financial management of the Fund have been developed by reference to practice within proprietary insurance institutions and within pension funds. The paper will be of interest and, we hope, of some value to students, researchers and analysts and also to the PPF's own stakeholder groups that have a stake in an effective pension protection regime.

Over the course of the 20th century Ireland moved from being a largely young population with a high death rate from infectious diseases to an increasingly older population with a consequent rise in chronic diseases. Understanding the changes that occurred in Irish mortality over the 20th century and how these changes compare with those experienced by similar countries can help us plan for the challenges of our aging population. This paper analyses trends in mortality in Ireland over the period 1901 to 2006 by age group, gender and five broad categories of cause of death – infectious diseases, circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases, cancer and external causes. To place the changes in an international context the trends are compared with those experienced by Northern Ireland and England and Wales. Ireland experienced the fastest improvements in mortality of the three regions in the early years of the 21st century. By 2006 the mortality of Irish males ranked between that of Northern Ireland and England and Wales while Irish females experienced the lowest mortality of the three regions. The improvement in Irish mortality in the 21st century can be attributed mainly to the drop in deaths from circulatory diseases for both males and females.

We investigate the link between death rates and smoking prevalence in ten developed countries with the aim of using smoking prevalence data to explain differences in country-specific death rates. A particular problem in building a stochastic mortality model based on smoking prevalence is that there are in general no separate mortality data for smokers and non-smokers available. We show how we can estimate mortality rates for smokers and non-smokers using information about the smoking prevalence in a number of developed countries, and making an additional assumption about the death rates of smokers. We consider this empirical investigation to be the first step towards a consistent mortality model for multiple populations, which will require modelling of country specific differences in mortality, as well as non-smokers’ and smokers’ mortality rates.

Cancer causes one in four of all deaths in the UK. Advances in biologic and pharmaceutical therapies over recent years have increased achievable survival gain in most life-limiting cancers, ranging from modest incremental improvements to step changes in life expectancy. The realised and anticipated impact of treatment advances on survival is of wide-ranging interest, from informing decisions about healthcare to understanding influences on mortality trends. This paper presents an overview of evidence for survival extension from a range of therapies that have become available in recent years for the treatment of lung, colorectal and breast cancer. The evidence considered includes short-term empirical evidence from clinical trials as well as longer-term estimates from models extrapolating over a lifetime horizon. The core data source is the evidence base supporting guidance published by the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence (NICE), UK. This evidence has already been subject to appraisal by NICE; the aim of this paper is to collate the existing estimates submitted to NICE in order to appreciate the wide range in survival extension resulting from systematically identified cancer treatments.

Underwriting in the United States (US) life insurance marketplace has evolved tremendously over the last several decades. This paper will take a brief look at that history, from the older underwriting techniques still in use today to the introduction of smoker/nonsmoker distinctions in about 1980 to the evolution of preferred underwriting in the late 1980s, and finally to a movement toward simplified issue underwriting and a new approach to older age underwriting today.