Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-26T18:57:52.005Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The times they are a-changing?

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 May 2010

Tim Sparks
Affiliation:
NERC Institute of Terrestrial Ecology, Monks Wood, Abbots Ripton, Huntingdon, Cambridgeshire PE17 2LS, U.K.
Humphrey Crick
Affiliation:
British Trust for Ornithology, The Nunnery, Nunnery Place, Thetford, Norfolk IP24 2PU, U.K.
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Extract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

It is clear from recent research that changes are occurring in the timing of many natural events. In most cases it is assumed that the changes, or most of them, are climate related, although associated changes in distribution, habitat quantity and quality, and population size must not be ignored. In this article we present our opinion that study of the timing of features of life cycles is vital in helping to predict the effects of climate change on wildlife. It represents cheap science and yet is extraordinarily good value for money because it generally relies on geographically widespread networks of volunteer observers. The consequences of phenological changes are large and conservationists ignore them at the peril of the wildlife they seek to conserve.

Type
Opinion
Copyright
Copyright © Birdlife International 1999

References

Beebee, T.J.C. (1995) Amphibian breeding and climate. Nature 374: 219220.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crick, H.Q.P. and Baillie, S.R. (1996) A review of the BTO's Nest Record Scheme. Thetford, U.K.: British Trust for Ornithology.Google Scholar
Crick, H.Q.P, Dudley, C., Glue, D.E. and Thomson, D.L. (1997) UK birds are laying eggs earlier. Nature 388: 526.Google Scholar
Davis, A.J., Jenkinson, L.S., Lawton, J.H., Shorrocks, B. and Wood, S. (1998) Making mistakes when predicting shifts in species range in response to global warming. Nature 391: 783786.Google Scholar
Fitter, A.H., Fitter, R.S.R., Harris, I.T.B. and Williamson, M.H. (1995) Relationships between first flowering date and temperature in the flora of a locality in central England. Functional Ecol. 9: 5560.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hameed, S. (1994) Variation of spring climate in lower-middle Yangtse River Valley and its relation with solar-cycle length. Geophys. Res. Lett. 21: 26932696.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huin, N. and Sparks, T.H. (1998) Arrival and progression of the swallow Hirundo rustica through Britain. Bird Study 45: 361370.Google Scholar
IPCC (1996) Climate change 1995: the science of climate change. Cambridge, U.K.: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Lauscher, F. (1978) Neue Analysen ältester und neuerer phänologischer Reihen. Arch. Meteorol. Geophysik Bioklimatol. B 28: 373385.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, C.F. (1995) Longterm trends in the arrival dates of spring migrants. Bird Study 42: 182189.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCleery, R.H. and Perrins, C.M. (1998) Temperature and egg-laying trends. Nature 391: 3031.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Oldham, C. (1937) Migratory birds in Hertfordshire. A review of the annual reports in our transactions. Trans. Herts. Nat. Hist. Soc. Field Club 20: 141150.Google Scholar
Parker, D.E., Legg, T.P. and Folland, C.K. (1992) A new daily Central England Temperature series, 1772–1991. Int. J. Climatol. 12: 317342.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pollard, E. and Yates, T.J. (1993) Monitoring butterflies for ecology and conservation. London, U.K.: Chapman and Hall.Google Scholar
Reid, P.C., Edwards, M., Hunt, H.G. and Warner, A.J. (1998) Phytoplankton change in the north Atlantic. Nature 391: 546.Google Scholar
Southern, H.N. (1938a) The spring migration of the swallow over Europe. British Birds 32: 47.Google Scholar
Southern, H.N. (1938b) The spring migration of the willow-warbler over Europe. Brit. Birds 32: 202206.Google Scholar
Southern, H.N. (1939) The spring migration of the redstart over Europe. Brit. Birds 33: 3438.Google Scholar
Southern, H.N. (1940) The spring migration of the wood-warbler over Europe. Brit. Birds 34: 479.Google Scholar
Southern, H.N. (1941) The spring migration of the red-backed shrike over Europe. Brit. Birds 35: 114119.Google Scholar
Sparks, T.H. and Carey, P.D. (1995) The responses of species to climate over two centuries: an analysis of the Marsham phenological record, 1736–1947. J. Ecol. 83: 321329.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sparks, T.H., Carey, P.D., AND Combes, J. (1997) First leafing dates of trees in Surrey between 1947 and 1996. Lond. Nat. 76: 1520.Google Scholar