Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-fbnjt Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-15T03:26:20.120Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Frequency formats are a small part of the base rate story

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  29 October 2007

Dale Griffin
Affiliation:
Sauder School of Business, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC V6T 1Z2, [email protected]
Derek J. Koehler
Affiliation:
Department of Psychology, University of Waterloo, Waterloo, ON N2L 3G1, [email protected]
Lyle Brenner
Affiliation:
Warrington College of Business, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32611. [email protected]

Abstract

Manipulations that draw attention to extensional or set-based considerations are neither sufficient nor necessary for enhanced use of base rates in intuitive judgments. Frequency formats are only one part of the puzzle of base-rate use and neglect. The conditions under which these and other manipulations promote base-rate use may be more parsimoniously organized under the broader notion of case-based judgment.

Type
Open Peer Commentary
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2007

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Brenner, L., Griffin, D. & Koehler, D. J. (2005) Modeling patterns of probability calibration with Random Support Theory: Diagnosing case-based judgment. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes 97:6481.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brenner, L., Griffin, D. & Koehler, D. J. (2006) Case-based biases in asset pricing. Paper presented at the Society for Judgment and Decision Making Conference, Houston, TX, November 18–20, 2006.Google Scholar
Cosmides, L. & Tooby, J. (1994) Better than rational: Evolutionary psychology and the invisible hand. American Economic Review 84:327–32.Google Scholar
Gigerenzer, G., Hell, W. & Blank, H. (1988) Presentation and content: The use of base-rates as a continuous variable. Journal of Experimental Psychology: Human Perception and Performance 14:513–25.Google Scholar
Girotto, V. & Gonzalez, M. (2001) Solving probabilistic and statistical problems: A matter of information structure and question form. Cognition 78:247–76.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gluck, M. A. & Bower, G. H. (1988) From conditioning to category learning: An adaptive network model. Journal of Experimental Psychology: General 117:227–47.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Griffin, D. & Tversky, A. (1992) The weighing of evidence and the determinants of confidence. Cognitive Psychology 24:411–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kahneman, D. & Frederick, S. (1973) On the psychology of prediction. Psychological Review 80:237–51.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Tversky, A. & Kahneman, D. (1980) Causal schemata in judgments under uncertainty. In: Progress in social psychology, ed. Fishbein, M., pp.4972. Erlbaum.Google Scholar