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WHY DOES A HUMAN DIE? A STRUCTURAL APPROACH TO COHORT-WISE MORTALITY PREDICTION UNDER SURVIVAL ENERGY HYPOTHESIS

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  13 November 2020

Yasutaka Shimizu ,
Yuki Minami  and
Ryunosuke Ito
Yasutaka Shimizu*
Affiliation:
Department of Applied Mathematics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, E-Mail: [email protected]
Yuki Minami
Affiliation:
Department of Applied Mathematics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, E-Mails: [email protected]; [email protected]
Ryunosuke Ito
Affiliation:
Department of Applied Mathematics, Waseda University, Tokyo, Japan, E-Mails: [email protected]; [email protected]
*
E-Mail: [email protected]
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Abstract

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We propose a new approach to mortality prediction under survival energy hypothesis (SEH). We assume that a human is born with initial energy, which changes stochastically in time and the human dies when the energy vanishes. Then, the time of death is represented by the first hitting time of the survival energy (SE) process to zero. This study assumes that SE follows a time-inhomogeneous diffusion process and defines the mortality function, which is the first hitting time distribution function of the SE process. Although SEH is a fictitious construct, we illustrate that this assumption has the potential to yield a good parametric family of cumulative probability of death, and the parametric family yields surprisingly good predictions for future mortality rates.

Keywords

Mortality predictionsurvival energy hypothesisthe first passage timediffusion processesruin theory62M8691B3060G25
Type
Research Article
Information
ASTIN Bulletin: The Journal of the IAA , Volume 51 , Issue 1 , January 2021 , pp. 191 - 219
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
© 2020 by Astin Bulletin. All rights reserved

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