Verification of Outstanding Claim Provisions—Separation Technique

Extract

In reference [1] Dr. G. C. Taylor has described a useful advance in the techniques available for verification of outstanding claims estimates when the data provided is the cohort development of numbers and amounts of claims. In this note it is assumed that the numbers relate to settled claims and that the amounts relate to claim payments, so there is an implicit assumption that the pattern of partial payments is constant. If the amounts of settled claims were to be used, there would be a one/one relationship between the numbers and amounts, but the effect of the exogeneous factor would be blurred because the settlements in a year other than the first include partial payments made some time previously, and, by hypothesis, based on different factors. If information relating to partial payments is available the data can be examined for any major fluctuation in the pattern and allowance made accordingly.

In paragraph (2) of reference [1] a brief description is given of a standard routine calculation in which the average distribution function of claim payments in time is estimated from the triangle of payments by a chain ladder technique. This distribution function is then used to estimate the expected development of the incomplete cohorts, the implicit assumption being made that the function was stable in time. With a constant rate of inflation the results obtained by this technique were found to be satisfactory but with a rapid increase in the rate of inflation the distribution function changed so that projection led to underestimates of the future claims payments. Various methods of adjusting the projections to allow for the change in the rate of inflation have been investigated, but they all involve an important element of subjective judgment and so far no generally suitable basis for “automatic” verification by this particular technique has been discovered. See however reference [2].