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Indonesia's Elections of 2014: Democratic Consolidation or Reversal?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 14 March 2025
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Compared to its Asian neighbours, Indonesia was late to join the so-called third wave of democratisation that began in southern Europe in the 1970s. After the fall of the authoritarian Suharto regime (1967-98) it successfully conducted free and fair elections in 1999, 2004 and 2009, becoming arguably the most politically free country in Southeast Asia. A burgeoning civil society and a relatively open media have helped consolidate democracy but tensions remain between Suharto's legacy and the direction of Indonesia's democratic transition. In particular, Suharto-era oligarchs remain dominant and the armed forces retain significant influence even though their power appears to have declined and is less absolute than in much of Southeast Asia. The pluralism of Indonesia's national motto, Unity in Diversity, is also being jeopardised by the failure to safeguard religious minorities against attacks from hardline Islamists. Against this backdrop Indonesia will administer its fourth round of post-Suharto elections in 2014, with legislative polls in April, followed by direct presidential elections in July.
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References
Notes
1 According to Freedom House country rankings for 2011, 2012 and 2013. Indonesia was the only state in Southeast Asia to be ranked ‘free’ in terms of both political rights and civil liberties. East Timor, the region's next highest ranked country, was adjudged only ‘partly free’ for each of those three years.
2 His government spent approximately US$2 billion between June 2008 and April 2009 on compensation payments for increased fuel prices, micro-credit programs and schooling allowances. See Marcus Mietzner (2009), ‘Indonesia's 2009 Elections: Populism, Dynasties and the Consolidation of the Party System’, Lowy Institute for International Affairs.
3 International Monetary Fund (2012), Indonesia: Staff Report for the 2012 Article IV Consultation
4 See the Corruption Perceptions Index of 2013. Corruption prosecutions actually increased in 2013, however.
5 Ehito Kimura (2012), Political Change and Territoriality in Indonesia: Provincial Proliferation, Routledge, London
6 Dirk Tomsa (2008), Party Politics and Democratization in Indonesia: Golkar in the Post-Suharto Era, London, Routledge, p.190
7 Since its founding in 2003, the Corruption Eradication Committee (KPK) has prosecuted 72 members of parliament, eight government ministers, six central bankers, four judges and dozens of CEOs, achieving a 100 percent conviction rate.
8 Marcus Mietzner & Edward Aspinall (2010). ‘Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia: An Overview’, in Edward Aspinall & Marcus Mietzner (ed.), Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia: Elections, Institutions and Society, Institute of Southeast Asian Studies (ISEAS), Singapore, p.4
9 ibid, p.8
10 ibid, p.10
11 ibid, p.12
12 Newcomers Gerindra and Hanura were not represented either although Yudhoyono was later keen to bring them in when conducting a reshuffle.
13 Dirk Tomsa (2010), ‘The Indonesian Party System after the 2009 Elections: Towards Stability?‘ in Edward Aspinall & Marcus Mietzner (ed.), Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia, pp. 141-159.
14 Data from the Indonesian Election Commission (KPU)
15 Hans Nicholas Jong, ‘More Would Go To Polls If Jokowi Ran: Survey’, The Jakarta Post, January 31, 2014
16 Hans David Tampubolon, ‘Sukarno's Blood Still Vital For PDI-P’, The Jakarta Post, April 1, 2010
17 Although not school fees, which are covered by a separate programme.
18 Chris Manning, ‘Jakarta's Gamble: A Big Jump In The Minimum Wage’, East Asia Forum, December 18, 2012
19 Sita W. Dewi, ‘Jokowi Spends Less, Provides More Than Foke, Say Observers’, The Jakarta Post, December 9, 2013
20 The Jakarta Post, ‘Jakartans Want Jokowi To Stay: Survey’, February 10, 2014
21 Andreas Ufen (2009), ‘Mobilising Political Islam: Indonesia and Malaysia Compared’, Commonwealth & Comparative Politics, Vol. 47, No. 3, pp. 308-333
22 Margareth S. Aritonang, ‘Gerindra Considers Prabowo-Hatta Ticket’, The Jakarta Post, February 13, 2014
23 Ufen 2009.
24 Ridwan Max Sijabat, ‘Opposition Grows Within Golkar To Aburizal's Presidential Bid’, The Jakarta Post, April 23, 2012 and John McBeth, ‘Golkar Wavering Over Its Candidate’, The Straits Times, January 29, 2013
25 The others are Catholicism, Protestantism, Buddhism, Hinduism and Confucianism.
26 Ufen 2009.
27 Haeril Halim, Nurfika Osman & Margareth Aritonang, ‘More Islamic Parties Hit By Graft Scandals Ahead Of Polls’, The Jakarta Post, February 13, 2014
28 The PPP, PKS and PBB are explicitly Islamic in their charter whilst the PAN and PKB are regarded as appealing to Muslim voters.
29 Henky Widjaja (2012), ‘Convenient thugs: FPI Thrives When Mainstream Muslim Groups Remain Silent’, Inside Indonesia vol. 109 Jul-Sep
30 Ariel Heryanto (2010), ‘Entertainment, Domestication, and Dispersal: Street Politics as Popular Culture’, in Edward Aspinall & Marcus Mietzner (ed.), Problems of Democratisation in Indonesia, p. 192.
31 Mariel Grazella, ‘Facebook Users Rise To 64m In Indonesia’, The Jakarta Post, June 18, 2013. These figures do not take into account the number of Facebook users in China, where it is officially blocked.
32 Research conducted by Semiocast, a social media analytics company, cited in George Steptoe, ‘Sharing Is Caring’, Southeast Asia Globe, November 12, 2013.
33 Jokowi had 1.3 million Twitter followers at the time of writing.
34 Research by Yahoo! and TNS cited in Steptoe (2013).
35 Freedom House, Freedom of the Press Global Survey of 2013: Indonesia
36 This is the view of Enda Nasution, the ‘father of Indonesian bloggers’. For example, #SaveKPK hashtag, critical of Yudhoyono's inaction over police harassment of the KPK, reached 9.4 million internet users and forced the president to intervene. Cited in Steptoe (2013).
37 The survey was conducted in December 2013, involving 1,200 respondents from all of Indonesia's 33 provinces, with a margin of error of 2.83 percent. See The Jakarta Post, ‘Voters Rely On TV News, Not Campaign Ads: Indonesia Survey’, January 15, 2014
38 Haeril Halim, ‘Media Told To Remain Impartial During Polls’, The Jakarta Post, January 4, 2014
39 Nurfika Osman, ‘Watchdogs Demand KPI Punish Partisan TV Stations’, The Jakarta Post, January 17, 2014
40 ibid
41 Freedom of the Press is an annual report published by Freedom House which analyses the extent of media independence in nations and territories around the world.
42 Kelvin Rowley, ‘The Downfall Of Thaksin Shinawatra's CEO-State’, APSNet Policy Forum, November 9, 2006. Thaksin sold his family's media and telecoms empire to Singapore's Temasek in 2006.
43 See Freedom House, Freedom of the Press Global Survey of 2013: Indonesia
44 Jeffrey A. Winters (2013), ‘Wealth, Power, and Contemporary Indonesian Politics’, Indonesia Vol. 96, pp. 11-33
45 Marcus Mietzner (2011), ‘The Political Marginalization of the Military in Indonesia: Democratic Consolidation, Leadership, and Institutional Reform’, in Marcus Mietzner (ed.), The Political Resurgence of the Military in Southeast Asia: Conflict and Leadership, Routledge, London and New York, p.128
46 ibid, p. 132-135
47 ibid, p. 142
48 ibid, p. 144
49 ibid
50 ibid, p. 145
51 Kompas, ‘TNI Expresses “Doubts” About Democracy, Desire To Return To Politics’, October 28, 2013
52 Damien Kingsbury, ‘Anti-reform Actors Hover Over Indonesia's Coming Elections’, East Asia Forum, January 16, 2014
53 John McBeth, ‘A President's Unfulfilled Promise’, The Straits Times, December 19, 2013
54 These depict a smiling Suharto asking in Javanese: “How're things? They were better in my time, no?” See Zakir Hussain, ‘Growing Nostalgia In Indonesia For Life Under Suharto’, The Straits Times, January 29, 2014
55 Berni Moestafa & Novrida Manurung, ‘Indonesia Money Watchdog Warns Of Bureaucratic Mafia After Polls’, Bloomberg, February 25, 2014
56 Haeril Halim, ‘Gerindra, Hanura Receive Largest Campaign Donations’, The Jakarta Post, December 28, 2013
57 Such was the pattern during the New Order when economic liberalisation polices were wound back as resource-driven growth slowed.
58 Vikram Nehru (2013), ‘Survey of Recent Developments’, Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Vol. 49, No. 2, pp. 139-166
59 The Jakarta Post, ‘Bawaslu Anticipates “Golput”‘, November 24, 2013
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