Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-dzt6s Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-30T19:32:59.318Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya—Karakoram region

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 March 2016

A. Linsbauer ,
H. Frey ,
W. Haeberli ,
H. Machguth ,
M.F. Azam  and
S. Allen
A. Linsbauer*
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland Department of Geosciences, University of Fribourg, Fribourg, Switzerland
H. Frey
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
W. Haeberli
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland
H. Machguth
Affiliation:
Centre for Arctic Technology, Danish Technical University, Lyngby, Denmark
M.F. Azam
Affiliation:
School of Environmental Sciences, Jawaharlal Nehru University, New Delhi, India IRD/UJF- Grenoble I/CNRS/G-INP, LGGE UMR 5183, LTHE UMR 5564, Grenoble, France
S. Allen
Affiliation:
Department of Geography, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland Institute of Environmental Sciences, University of Geneva, Switzerland
*
Correspondence: Andreas Linsbauer <[email protected]>
Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Core share and HTML view are not available for this content. However, as you have access to this content, a full PDF is available via the ‘Save PDF’ action button.

Surface digital elevation models (DEMs) and slope-related estimates of glacier thickness enable modelling of glacier-bed topographies over large ice-covered areas. Due to the erosive power of glaciers, such bed topographies can contain numerous overdeepenings, which when exposed following glacier retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for ~28 000 glaciers (40 775 km2) of the Himalaya-Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear stress as a function of elevation range for each glacier. The modelled ice thicknesses are uncertain (±30%), but spatial patterns of ice thickness and bed elevation primarily depend on surface slopes as derived from the DEM and, hence, are more robust. About 16 000 overdeepenings larger than 104m2 were detected in the modelled glacier beds, covering an area of ~2200 km2 and having a volume of ~120km3 (3-4% of present-day glacier volume). About 5000 of these overdeepenings (1800 km2) have a volume larger than 106m3. The results presented here are useful for anticipating landscape evolution and potential future lake formation with associated opportunities (tourism, hydropower) and risks (lake outbursts).

Keywords

glacial geomorphologyglaciological model experimentsprocesses and landforms of glacial erosion
Type
Paper
Information
Annals of Glaciology , Volume 57 , Issue 71 , March 2016 , pp. 119 - 130
Creative Commons
Creative Common License - CCCreative Common License - BY
This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution licence (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted re-use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright
Copyright © The Author(s) 2016

References

Adhikari, S and Marshall, SJ (2013) Influence of high-order mechanics on simulation of glacier response to climate change: insights from Haig Glacier, Canadian Rocky Mountains. Cryosphere, 7(5), 1527–1541 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-1527-2013)Google Scholar
Ageta, Yand Higuchi, K (1984) Estimation of mass balance components of a summer-accumulation type glacier in the Nepal Himalaya. Geogr. Ann. A, 66(3), 249–255 (doi: 10.2307/520698)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Azam, MF and 10 others (2012) From balance to imbalance: a shift in the dynamic behaviour of Chhota Shigri glacier, western Himalaya, India. J. Glaciol., 58(208), 315–324 (doi: 10.3189/2012JoG11J123)Google Scholar
Azam, MF, Wagnon, P, Vincent, C, Ramanathan, A, Linda, A and Singh, VB (2014) Reconstruction of the annual mass balance of Chhota Shigri glacier, Western Himalaya, India, since 1969. Ann. Glaciol., 55(66), 69–80 (doi: 10.3189/2014AoG66A104)Google Scholar
Bajracharya, SR and Mool, P (2010) Glaciers, glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in the Mount Everest region, Nepal. Ann. Glaciol. 50(53), 81–86 (doi: 10.3189/172756410790595895)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bajracharya, SR and Shrestha, B (2011) The status of glaciers in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, KathmanduGoogle Scholar
Banerjee, A and Shankar, R (2013) On the response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change. J. Glaciol. 59(215), 480–490 (doi: 10.3189/2013JoG12J130)Google Scholar
Barrand, NE and Murray, T (2006) Multivariate controls on the incidence of glacier surging in the Karakoram Himalaya. Arct. Antarct. Alp. Res., 38(4), 489–498 (doi: 10.1657/1523-0430(2006)38[489:MCOTIO]2.0.CO;2)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Benn, DI and Owen, LA (1998) The role of the Indian summer monsoon and the mid-latitude westerlies in Himalayan glaci-ation: review and speculative discussion. J. Geol. Soc., 155(2), 353–363 (doi: 10.1144/gsjgs.1 55.2.0353)Google Scholar
Berthier, E, Arnaud, Y, Kumar, R, Ahmad, S, Wagnon, P and Chevallier, P (2007) Remote sensing estimates of glacier mass balances in the Himachal Pradesh (Western Himalaya, India). Remote Sens. Environ., 108(3), 327–338 (doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2006.11.017)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bhambri, R, Bolch, T, Kawishwar, P, Dobhal, DP, Srivastava, D and Pratap, B (2013) Heterogeneity in glacier response in the upper Shyok valley, northeast Karakoram. Cryosphere, 7(5), 1385–1398 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-1385-2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Binder, D, Brückl, E, Roch, KH, Behm, M, Schöner, W and Hynek, B (2009) Determination of total ice volume and ice-thickness distribution of two glaciers in the Hohe Tauern region, Eastern Alps, from GPR data. Ann. Glaciol., 50(51), 71–79 CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bolch, T, Buchroithner, M, Pieczonka, T and Kunert, A (2008) Planimetric and volumetric glacier changes in the Khumbu Himal, Nepal, since 1962 using Corona, Landsat TM and ASTER data. J. Glaciol., 54(187), 592–600 (doi: 10.3189/002214308786570782)Google Scholar
Bolch, T and 11 others (2012) The state and fate of Himalayan glaciers. Science, 336(6079), 310–314 (doi: 10.1126/science.1215828)CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bookhagen, B and Burbank, DW (2006) Topography, relief, and TRMM-derived rainfall variations along the Himalaya. Geophys. Res. Lett., 33(8), L08405 (doi: 10.1029/2006GL026037)Google Scholar
Bookhagen, B and Burbank, DW (2010) Toward a complete Himalayan hydrological budget: spatiotemporal distribution of snow-melt and rainfall and their impact on river discharge. J. Geophys. Res.: EarthSurf., 115(F3), F0301 9 (doi: 10.1029/2009JF001426)Google Scholar
Chikita, K, Joshi, SP, Jha, J and Hasegawa, H (2000) Hydrological and thermal regimes in a supra-glacial lake: Imja, Khumbu, Nepal Himalaya. Hydrol. Sci. J., 45(4), 507–521 (doi: 10.1080/02626660009492353)Google Scholar
Clarke, GKC, Berthier, E, Schoof, CG and Jarosch, AH (2009) Neural networks applied to estimating subglacial topography and glacier volume. J. Climate, 22(9), 2146–2160 (doi: 10.1175/2008JCLI2572.1)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clarke, GKC and 6 others (2013) Ice volume and subglacial topography for western Canadian glaciers from mass balance fields, thinning rates, and a bed stress model. J. Climate, 26(12), 4282–4303 (doi: 10.1175/JCLI-D-12-00513.1)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cook, SJ and Swift, DA (2012) Subglacial basins: their origin and importance in glacial systems and landscapes. Earth-Sci. Rev., 115(4), 332–372 (doi: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2012.09.009)Google Scholar
Delmas, M, Calvet, M and Gunnell, Y (2009) Variability of Quaternary glacial erosion rates: a global perspective with special reference to the Eastern Pyrenees. Quat. Sci. Rev., 28(5-6), 484–498 (doi: 10.1016/j.quascirev.2008.11.006)Google Scholar
Environmental Systems Research Institute (ESRI) (2011) ArcGIS Desktop: Release 10. Environmental Systems Research Institute, Redlands, CAGoogle Scholar
Farinotti, D, Huss, M, Bauder, A and Funk, M (2009) An estimate of the glacier ice volume in the Swiss Alps. Global Planet. Change 68(3), 225–231 (doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2009.05.004)Google Scholar
Farr, TG and 17 others (2007) The Shuttle Radar Topography Mission. Rev. Geophys., 45(2) (doi: 10.1029/2005RG000183)Google Scholar
Fischer, L, Huggel, C, Kääb, A and Haeberli, W (2013) Slope failures and erosion rates on a glacierized high-mountain face under climatic changes. Earth Surf. Process. Landf., 38(8), 836–846 (doi: 10.1002/esp.3355)Google Scholar
Frey, H and Paul, F (2012) On the suitability of the SRTM DEM and ASTER GDEM for the compilation of topographic parameters in glacier inventories. Int. J. Appl. Earth Obs. Geoinf., 18, 480–490 (doi: 10.1016/j.jag.2011.09.020)Google Scholar
Frey, H, Haeberli, W, Linsbauer, A, Huggel, C and Paul, F (2010) A multi-level strategy for anticipating future glacier lake formation and associated hazard potentials. Natur. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 10(2), 339–352 Google Scholar
Frey, H, Paul, F and Strozzi, T (2012) Compilation of a glacier inventory for the western Himalayas from satellite data: methods, challenges, and results. Remote Sens. Environ., 124, 832–843 (doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2012.06.020)Google Scholar
Frey, H, and 9 others (2014) Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan-Karakoram region using different methods. Cryosphere, 8(6), 2313–2333 (doi: 10.5194/tc-8-2313-2014)Google Scholar
Fujita, K, Sakai, A, Nuimura, T, Yamaguchi, S and Sharma, RR (2009) Recent changes in Imja Glacial Lake and its damming moraine in the Nepal Himalaya revealed by in situ surveys and multi-temporal ASTER imagery. Environ. Res. Lett., 4(4), 045205 (doi: 10.1088/1748-9326/4/4/045205)Google Scholar
Fujita, K and 6 others (2013) Potential flood volume of Himalayan glacial lakes. Natur. Hazards Earth Syst. Sci., 13(7), 1827–1839 (doi: 10.5194/nhess-13-1827-2013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gardelle, J, Arnaud, Y and Berthier, E (2011) Contrasted evolution of glacial lakes along the Hindu Kush Himalaya mountain range between 1990 and 2009. Global Planet. Change, 75(1-2), 47–55 (doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2010.10.003)Google Scholar
Giesen, RH and Oerlemans, J (2010) Response of the ice cap Hardangerjøkulen in southern Norway to the 20th and 21st century climates. Cryosphere, 4(2), 191–213 (doi: 10.5194/tc-4-191-2010)Google Scholar
Gurung, H (1999) Mountains of Asia. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, KathmanduGoogle Scholar
Haeberli, W (1996) On the morphodynamics of ice/debris-transport systems in cold mountain areas. Nor. Geogr. Tidsskr., 50(1), 3–9 (doi: 10.1080/00291959608552346)Google Scholar
Haeberli, W and Hoelzle, M (1995) Application of inventory data for estimating characteristics of and regional climate-change effects on mountain glaciers: a pilot study with the European Alps. Ann. Glaciol., 21, 206–212 Google Scholar
Haeberli, W and Linsbauer, A (2013) Brief Communication. Global glacier volumes and sea level: small but systematic effects of ice below the surface of the ocean and of new local lakes on land. Cryosphere, 7(3), 817–821 (doi: 10.5194/tc-7-817-2013)Google Scholar
Haeberli, W and Schweizer, J (1988) Rhonegletscher 1850: Eismechanische Ueberlegungen zu einem historischen Gletscherstand. Mitt. VAW ETHZ, 94, 59–70 Google Scholar
Haeberli, W, Schaub, Y and Huggel, C (in press) Increasing risks related to landslides from degrading permafrost into new lakes in de-glaciating mountain ranges. Geomorphology Google Scholar
Hallet, B, Hunter, L and Bogen, J (1996) Rates of erosion and sediment evacuation by glaciers: a review of field data and their implications. Global Planet. Change, 12(1–4), 213–235 (doi: 10.1016/0921-8181(95)00021-6)Google Scholar
Hinderer, M (2001) Late Quaternary denudation of the Alps, valley and lake fillings and modern river loads. Geodin. Acta, 13, 1778–1786 Google Scholar
Hooke RLeB (1991) Positive feedbacks associated with erosion of glacial cirques and overdeepenings. Geol. Soc. Am. Bull., 103(8), 1104–1108 (doi: 10.11 30/0016-7606(1991)103<1104:PFAWEO>2.3.CO;2)2.3.CO;2)>Google Scholar
Huss, M and Farinotti, D (2012) Distributed ice thickness and volume of all glaciers around the globe. J. Geophys. Res., 117(F4), F04010 (doi: 10.1029/2012JF002523)Google Scholar
Immerzeel, W, Van Beek, L, Konz, M, Shrestha, A and Bierkens, M (2012) Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Climate Change, 110(3), 721–736 (doi: 10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development (ICI-MOD) (2011) Glacial lakes and glacial lake outburst floods in Nepal. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu http://lib.icimod.org/record/27755 Google Scholar
Ives, JD, Shrestha, RB and Mool, PK (2010) Formation of glacial lakes in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas and GLOF risk assessment. International Centre for Integrated Mountain Development, Kathmandu http://lib.icimod.org/record/8047 Google Scholar
Jouvet, G, Huss, M, Funk, M and Blatter, H (2011) Modelling the retreat of Grosser Aletschgletscher, Switzerland, in a changing climate. J. Glaciol., 57(206), 1033–1045 (doi: 10.3189/002214311798843359)Google Scholar
Kääb, A (2005) Combination of SRTM3 and repeat ASTER data for deriving alpine glacier flow velocities in the Bhutan Himalaya. Remote Sens. Environ., 94(4), 463–474 (doi: 10.1016/j.rse.2004.11.003)Google Scholar
Koppes, MN and Montgomery, DR (2009) The relative efficacy of fluvial and glacial erosion over modern to orogenic timescales. Nature Geosci., 2(9), 644–647 (doi: 10.1038/ngeo616)Google Scholar
Künzler, M, Huggel, C, Linsbauer, A and Haeberli, W (2010) Emerging risks related to new lakes in deglaciating areas of the Alps. In Malet, J-P, Glade, T and Casagli, N eds Mountain Risks: Bringing Science to Society. Proceedings of the ‘Mountain Risk’ International Conference, 24-26 November 2010, Firenze, Italy. CERG Editions, Strasbourg, 453–458 Google Scholar
Li, H, Ng, Z, Li, F, Qin, D and Cheng, G (2012) An extended ‘perfect-plasticity’ method for estimating ice thickness along the flow line of mountain glaciers. J. Geophys. Res., 117(F1), F01020 (doi: 10.1029/2011JF002104)Google Scholar
Linsbauer, A, Paul, F, Hoelzle, M, Frey, H and Haeberli, W (2009) The Swiss Alps without glaciers: a GIS-based modelling approach for reconstruction of glacier beds. In Purves, R, Gruber, S, Straumann, R and Hengl, T eds Proceedings of Geomorphometry 2009. University of Zürich, Zürich, 243–247 http://www.geomorphometry.org/linsbauer2009geomorphometry Google Scholar
Linsbauer, A, Paul, F and Haeberli, W (2012) Modeling glacier thickness distribution and bed topography over entire mountain ranges with GlabTop: application of a fast and robust approach. J. Geophys. Res., 117(F3), F03007 (doi: 10.1029/2011JF00231 3)Google Scholar
Loriaux, T and Casassa, G (2013) Evolution of glacial lakes from the Northern Patagonia Icefield and terrestrial water storage in a sea-level rise context. Global Planet. Change, 102, 33–40 (doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2012.12.012)Google Scholar
Marshall, S and 7 others (2011) Glacier water resources on the eastern slopes of the Canadian Rocky Mountains. Can. Water Resour.J., 36(2), 109–134 (doi: 10.4296/cwrj3602823)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Patton, H, Swift, DA, Clark, CD, Livingstone, SJ, Cook, SJ and Hubbard, A (2015) Automated mapping of glacial overdeepenings beneath contemporary ice sheets: approaches and potential applications. Geomorphology, 232, 209–223 (doi: 10.1016/j.geomorph.2015.01.003)Google Scholar
Paul, F and Linsbauer, A (2012) Modeling of glacier bed topography from glacier outlines, central branch lines, and a DEM. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 26(7), 1173–1190 (doi: 10.1080/13658816.2011.627859)Google Scholar
Pfeffer, WT and 75 others (2014) The Randolph Glacier Inventory: a globally complete inventory of glaciers. J. Glaciol., 60(221), 537–552 (doi: 10.3189/2014JoG13J176)Google Scholar
Quincey, DJ and 6 others (2007) Early recognition of glacial lake hazards in the Himalaya using remote sensing datasets. Global Planet. Change, 56(1-2), 137–152 (doi: 10.1016/j.gloplacha.2006.07.013)CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rankl, M, Kienholz, C and Braun, M (2014) Glacier changes in the Karakoram region mapped by multimission satellite imagery. Cryosphere, 8(3), 977–989 (doi: 10.5194/tc-8-977-2014)Google Scholar
Reuter, HI, Nelson, A and Jarvis, A (2007) An evaluation of void-filling interpolation methods for SRTM - data. Int. J. Geogr. Inf. Sci., 21(9), 983 (doi: 10.1080/13658810601169899)Google Scholar
Reynolds, JM (2000) On the formation of supraglacial lakes on debris-covered glaciers. IAHS Publ. 264 (Workshop at Seattle 2000 - Debris-Covered Glaciers), 153-161Google Scholar
Sakai, A and Fujita, K (2010) Formation conditions of supraglacial lakes on debris-covered glaciers in the Himalaya. J. Glaciol. 56(195), 177–181 (doi: 10.3189/002214310791190785)Google Scholar
Schaub, Y, Haeberli, W, Huggel, C, Künzler, M and Bründl, M (2013) Landslides and new lakes in deglaciating areas: a risk management framework. In Margottini, C, Canuti, P and Sassa, K eds Landslide science and practice. Springer, Berlin and Heidelberg, 31–38 http://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-3-642-31313-4_5 Google Scholar
Scherler, D, Bookhagen, B and Strecker, MR (2011) Spatially variable response of Himalayan glaciers to climate change affected by debris cover. Nature Geosci., 4(3), 156–159 (doi: 10.1038/ngeo1068)Google Scholar
Shi, Y, Liu, C and Kang, E (2010) The Glacier Inventory of China. Ann. Glaciol. 50(53), 1–4 (doi: 10.3189/172756410790595831)Google Scholar
Shroder, JF (2011) Himalaya. In Singh, VP, Singh, P and Haritashya, UK eds Encyclopedia of snow, ice, and glaciers. Springer Science + Business Media, Dordrecht, 510–520 Google Scholar
Somos-Valenzuela, MA, McKinney, DC, Rounce, DR and Byers, AC (2014) Changes in Imja Tsho in the Mount Everest region of Nepal. Cryosphere 8(5), 1661–1671 (doi: 10.5194/tc-8-1661-2014)Google Scholar
Terrier, S, Jordan, F, Schleiss, AJ, Haeberli, W, Huggel, Cand Künzler, M (2011) Optimized and adapted hydropower management considering glacier shrinkage scenarios in the Swiss Alps. In Schleiss, A and Boes, RM eds Proceedings of the International Symposium on Dams and Reservoirs under Changing Challenges - 79th Annual Meeting of ICOLD, Swiss Committee on Dams, Lucerne, Switzerland. Taylor & Francis, London, 497–508 Google Scholar
Wagnon, P and 10 others (2007) Four years of mass balance on Chhota Shigri Glacier, Himachal Pradesh, India, a new benchmark glacier in the western Himalaya. J. Glaciol., 53(183), 603–611 (doi: 10.3189/002214307784409306)Google Scholar
Worni, R, Huggel, C and Stoffel, M (2013) Glacial lakes in the Indian Himalayas: from an area-wide glacial lake inventory to on-site and modeling based risk assessment of critical glacial lakes. Sci. Total Environ., 468-469(Suppl.), 71–84 (doi: 10.1016/j.scito-tenv.2012.11.043)Google Scholar
Yamada, T and Sharma, CK (1993) Glacier lakes and outburst floods in the Nepal Himalaya. IAHS Publ. 218 (Symposium at Kathmandu 1992 - Snow and Glacier Hydrology), 319-330Google Scholar
Zekollari, H, Huybrechts, P, Fürst, JJ, Rybak, O and Eisen, O (2013) Calibration of a higher-order 3-D ice-flow model of the Morteratsch glacier complex, Engadin, Switzerland. Ann. Glaciol., 54(63), 343–351 (doi: 10.3189/2013AoG63A434)Google Scholar
Zekollari, H, Fürst, JJ and Huybrechts, P (2015) Modelling the evolution of Vadret da Morteratsch, Switzerland, since the Little Ice Age and into the future. J. Glaciol., 60(224), 1155–1168 Google Scholar
Zemp, M, Kääb, A, Hoelzle, M and Haeberli, W (2005) GIS-based modelling of glacial sediment balance. Z. Geomorphol., 138, 113–129 Google Scholar