The influence of the North Atlantic Oscillation on ice conditions in coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic Sea

Abstract

This paper focuses on relationships between the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO) and the ice conditions in coastal lakes (Jamno, Bukowo, Gardno and Lebsko) of the southern Baltic Sea. The data on ice conditions included : date of first ice appearance (F), date of last ice disappearance (D), number of days with ice (N), length of the ice season (in days ; S) and maximum ice thickness (H) during the given winter. The period examined covers the winters from 1960/61 to 1999/2000. The monthly values of the NAO index for the same period were applied in accordance with Jones et al. (1997). Correlation and regression analysis methods were applied to determine and study the relationships between NAO (independent variable) and the parameters of ice conditions (dependent variables). The strongest relationships, with a linear correlation coefficient exceeding - 0.80, were obtained for the date of the last ice disappearance (D) in Lebsko Lake (- 0.853) and Gardno Lake (- 0.828) for the January March period. In contrast, the relationships between the NAO index and the date of first ice appearance (F) are much weaker. They are statistically significant only in November and early winter (Nov.-Dec., Nov.-Jan.). The correlation coefficients in the coastal lakes of the Southern Baltic Sea coasts generally increase eastwards, a phenomenon related to the severity of winters and to the increasing continuity of ice phenomena during a given winter in this direction.