Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gxg78 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-27T20:49:52.214Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis for foot-and-mouth disease control strategies: a comprehensive review

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  09 December 2011

Sith Premashthira ,
Mo D. Salman ,
Ashley E. Hill ,
Robin M. Reich  and
Bruce A. Wagner
Sith Premashthira
Affiliation:
Animal Population Health Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA,
Mo D. Salman*
Affiliation:
Animal Population Health Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA,
Ashley E. Hill
Affiliation:
Animal Population Health Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA, California Animal Health and Food Safety Laboratory System, University of California, Davis, CA 95617, USA,
Robin M. Reich
Affiliation:
Department of Forest and Rangeland Stewardship, Warner College of Natural Resources, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA and
Bruce A. Wagner
Affiliation:
Animal Population Health Institute, College of Veterinary Medicine and Biomedical Sciences, Colorado State University, Fort Collins, CO 80523, USA, National Animal Health Monitoring System, Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, United States Department of Agriculture, Fort Collins, CO 80526, USA
*
*Corresponding author. E-mail: [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) is one of the most serious transboundary, contagious viral diseases of cloven-hoofed livestock, because it can spread rapidly with high morbidity rates when introduced into disease-free herds or areas. Epidemiological simulation modeling can be developed to study the hypothetical spread of FMD and to evaluate potential disease control strategies that can be implemented to decrease the impact of an outbreak or to eradicate the virus from an area. Spatial analysis, a study of the distributions of events in space, can be applied to an area to investigate the spread of animal disease. Hypothetical FMD outbreaks can be spatially analyzed to evaluate the effect of the event under different control strategies. The main objective of this paper is to review FMD-related articles on FMD epidemiology, epidemiological simulation modeling and spatial analysis with the focus on disease control. This review will contribute to the development of models used to simulate FMD outbreaks under various control strategies, and to the application of spatial analysis to assess the outcome of FMD spread and its control.

Keywords

foot-and-mouth diseasesimulationmodelingspatial analysis
Type
Review Article
Information
Animal Health Research Reviews , Volume 12 , Issue 2 , December 2011 , pp. 225 - 234
Copyright
Copyright © Cambridge University Press 2011

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Bates, TW, Thurmond, MC and Carpenter, TE (2001). Direct and indirect contact rates among beef, dairy, goat, sheep, and swine herds in three California counties, with reference to control of potential foot-and-mouth disease transmission. American Journal of Veterinary Research 62: 1121–1129.Google Scholar
Bates, TW, Thurmond, MC and Carpenter, TE (2003a). Description of an epidemic simulation model for use in evaluating strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. American Journal of Veterinary Research 64: 195–204.Google Scholar
Bates, TW, Thurmond, MC and Carpenter, TE (2003b). Results of epidemic simulation modeling to evaluate strategies to control an outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease. American Journal of Veterinary Research 64: 205–210.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Bessell, PR, Shaw, DJ, Savill, NJ and Woolhouse, ME (2008). Geographic and topographic determinants of local FMD transmission applied to the 2001 UK FMD epidemic. BMC Veterinary Research 4: 40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bithell, JF (1990). An application of density estimation to geographical epidemiology. Statistics in Medicine 9: 691–701.Google Scholar
Bors, AG and Nasios, N (2009). Kernel bandwidth estimation for nonparametric modeling. IEEE Transactions on Systems, Man Cybernetics Part B: Cybernetics 39: 1543–1555.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Carpenter, TE, Thurmond, MC and Bates, TW (2004). A simulation model of intraherd transmission of foot and mouth disease with reference to disease spread before and after clinical diagnosis. Journal of Veterinary Diagnostic Investigation 16: 11–16.Google Scholar
Chhetri, BK, Perez, AM and Thurmond, MC (2010). Factors associated with spatial clustering of foot-and-mouth disease in Nepal. Tropical Animal Health and Production 42: 1441–1449.Google Scholar
Clayton, D and Hills, M (1993). Statistical Models in Epidemiology. Oxford, New York: Oxford University Press, p. 367.Google Scholar
Forman, S, Le Gall, F, Belton, D, Evans, D, Franqois, JL, Murray, G, Sheesley, D, Vandersmissen, A and Yoshimura, S (2009). Moving towards the global control of foot and mouth disease: an opportunity for donors. Revue Scientifique et Technique – Office International des Épizooties 28: 883–896.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Geering, WA, Lubroth, J and Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations. (2002). Emergency Prevention System for Transboundary Animal and Plant Pests and Diseases. Preparation of Foot-and-Mouth Disease Contingency Plans. Rome: Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations, p. 91.Google Scholar
Gerbier, G, Bacro, JN, Pouillot, R, Durand, B, Moutou, F and Chadoeuf, J (2002). A point pattern model of the spread of foot-and-mouth disease. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 56: 33–49.Google Scholar
Graves, JH (1979). Foot-and mouth disease: a constant threat to US livestock. Journal of the American Veterinary Medical Association 174: 174–176.Google ScholarPubMed
Harvey, N, Reeves, A, Schoenbaum, MA, Zagmutt-Vergara, FJ, Dubé, C, Hill, AE, Corso, BA, McNab, WB, Cartwright, CI and Salman, MD (2007). The North American Animal Disease Spread Model: a simulation model to assist decision making in evaluating animal disease incursions. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 82: 176–197.Google Scholar
Keusch, GT, Pappaioanou, M, Gonzalez, MC, Scott, KA and Tsai, P (eds) (2009). Sustaining Global Surveillance and Response to Emerging Zoonotic Diseases. Washington, DC: National Academies Press, p. 312.Google Scholar
Lawson, A (2006). Statistical Methods in Spatial Epidemiology. Chichester, England; Hoboken, NJ: Wiley, p. 398.Google Scholar
Lawson, AB and Zhou, H (2005). Spatial statistical modeling of disease outbreaks with particular reference to the UK foot and mouth disease (FMD) epidemic of 2001. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 71: 141–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Le, Menach A, Legrand, J, Grais, RF, Viboud, C, Valleron, AJ and Flahault, A (2005). Modeling spatial and temporal transmission of foot-and-mouth disease in France: identification of high-risk areas. Veterinary Research 36: 699–712.Google Scholar
Martinez-Lopez, B, Perez, AM and Sanchez-Vizcaino, JM (2010). A simulation model for the potential spread of foot-and-mouth disease in the Castile and Leon region of Spain. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 96: 19–29.Google Scholar
Mukherjee, A, Kumar, S, Mittal, R and Saxena, NC (2002). An application of the technique of density estimation in geographical epidemiology of goitre in the Muzaffarpur district of Bihar state of India. Statistics in Medicine 21: 2403–2407.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Paton, DJ, Sumption, KJ and Charleston, B (2009). Options for control of foot-and-mouth disease: knowledge, capability and policy. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B: Biological Sciences 364: 2657–2667.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Reich, RM and Davis, R (2003). Quantitative Spatial Analysis. Fort Collins, CO: Colorado State University, p. 481.Google Scholar
Riley, S (2007). Large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious disease. Science 316: 1298–1301.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rivas, AL, Smith, SD, Sullivan, PJ, Gardner, B, Aparicio, JP, Hoogesteijn, AL and Castillo-Chavez, C (2003). Identification of geographic factors associated with early spread of foot-and-mouth disease. American Journal of Veterinary Research 64: 1519–1527.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schoenbaum, MA and Disney, WT (2003). Modeling alternative mitigation strategies for a hypothetical outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in the United States. Preventive Veterinary Medicine 58: 25–52.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Schudel, A and Lombard, M (2004). International Conference on Control of Infectious Animal Diseases by Vaccination, Buenos Aires, Argentina, 13–16 April 2005, OIE.Basel: Karger.Google Scholar
Schwabe, CW, Riemann, H and Franti, CE (1977). Epidemiology in Veterinary Practice, Philadelphia: Lea & Febiger, p. 303.Google Scholar
Silverman, BW (1986). Density Estimation for Statistics and Data Analysis. London, New York: Chapman and Hall, p. 175.Google Scholar
Sobrino, F and Domingo, E (2004). Foot and Mouth Disease Current Perspectives. Wymondham, Norfolk, England: Horizon Bioscience, p. 482.Google Scholar
Thrusfield, MV (2005). Veterinary Epidemiology. Oxford,UK; Ames, IA: Blackwell Science Ltd, p. 584.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture, APHIS (2001). Foot-and-Mouth Disease a Foreign Threat to U.S. Livestock. Program Aid United States Department of Agriculture. Washington, DC: USDA Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Agriculture, APHIS (2007). Foot-and-Mouth Disease. APHIS Factsheet. Riverdale, MD: APHIS Veterinary Services.Google Scholar
Vose, D (2000). Risk Analysis: A Quantitative Guide. Chichester, NY: Wiley, p. 418.Google Scholar
Ward, MP, Maftei, D, Apostu, C and Suru, A (2008). Geostatistical visualisation and spatial statistics for evaluation of the dispersion of epidemic highly pathogenic avian influenza subtype H5N1. Veterinary Research 39: 22.Google Scholar
Wongsathapornchai, K (2006). Control of Foot and Mouth Disease for the Malaysia–Thailand–Myanmar Peninsula Campaign Uses of Quantitative Risk Assessment and Epidemiological Modeling. Fort Collins, CO: Colorado State University.Google Scholar
Wongsathapornchai, K, Salman, MD, Edwards, JR, Morley, PS, Keefe, TJ, Van Campen, H, Weber, S and Premashthira, S (2008). Use of epidemiologic risk modeling to evaluate control of foot-and-mouth disease in southern Thailand. American Journal of Veterinary Research 69: 240–251.Google Scholar