Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t8hqh Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T04:03:13.343Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Turnout and the Vote: The Joke's on the Democrats

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

James DeNardo*
Affiliation:
Princeton University

Abstract

A heavy turnout is commonly believed to favor the Democrats. This study presents theoretical reasoning and empirical evidence that challenge the conventional view. Reasonable assumptions about the behavior of core and peripheral voters lead to the conclusion that the majority party is most likely to suffer when turnout increases, common sense notwithstanding. It also appears that the recent decay of partisan loyalties among voters has eroded the relationship between turnout and the vote.

Type
Research Article
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1980

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Axelrod, Robert (1972). “Where the Votes Come From: An Analysis of Electoral Coalitions, 1952–1968.” American Political Science Review 66:1120.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berelson, Bernard R., Lazarsfeld, Paul F., and McPhee, William N. (1954). Voting: A Study of Opinion Formation in a Presidential Campaign. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean (1969). “The End of American Party Politics.” Transaction 7:1222.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Gurin, Gerald, and Miller, Warren E. (1954). The Voter Decides. Evanston: Row, Peterson and Company.Google Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Gurin, Gerald, and Miller, Warren E. (1960). “Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change.” Public Opinion Quarterly 24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Converse, Philip E. (1966). “The Concept of a Normal Vote.” In Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E. and Stokes, Donald E., Elections and the Political Order. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Converse, Philip E. (1976). The Dynamics of Party Support: Cohort-Analyzing Party Identification. Beverly Hills: Sage Publications.Google Scholar
DeVries, Walter, and Tarrance, V. Lance (1972). The Ticket Splitter: A New Force in American Politics. Grand Rapids: W.B. Eerdmans.Google Scholar
Milbrath, Lester W., and Goel, M. L. (1977). Political Participation, 2d ed. Chicago: Rand McNally College Publishing Co.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Levitin, Teresa E. (1976). Leadership and Change: Presidential Elections from 1952 to 1976. Cambridge, Mass.: Winthrop Publishers.Google Scholar
Nie, Norman H., Verba, Sidney and Petrocik, John R. (1976). The Changing American Voter. Cambridge, Mass.: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Tukey, John W. (1977). Exploratory Data Analysis. Reading, Mass.: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Wicker, Tom (1976). “In a Real Horse Race, Maybe Turnout Will Go Up.” New York Times, 10 29, 1976, Op. Ed. page.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.