Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-r5fsc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-03T07:28:57.609Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Turnout and Amendment Four: Mobilizing Eligible Voters Close to Formerly Incarcerated Floridians

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 April 2021

KEVIN MORRIS Open the ORCID record for KEVIN MORRIS [Opens in a new window]
KEVIN MORRIS*
Affiliation:
Brennan Center for Justice
*
Researcher, Brennan Center for Justice at NYU School of Law; PhD Student, Sociology Program, CUNY Graduate Center, [email protected]. [email protected]
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Recent scholarship shows that eligible voters in neighborhoods home to many arrested and incarcerated individuals vote at lower rates than those in less-affected neighborhoods. Little work, however, has investigated how this turnout gap might be counteracted. This paper uses Amendment Four, a 2018 Florida ballot initiative that promised to re-enfranchise most individuals whose voting rights had been revoked due to a felony conviction to investigate whether this turnout disparity can be narrowed by a ballot initiative of particular significance to communities most affected by incarceration. Using prison release records, I identify the neighborhoods and households where formerly incarcerated individuals live and assess the voting history of their neighbors and housemates. I find no evidence that Amendment Four increased these voters’ turnout in 2018 relative to other voters. While ending felony disenfranchisement is necessary, closing the turnout gap resulting from histories of policing and incarceration will require greater investment and engagement.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 115 , Issue 3 , August 2021 , pp. 805 - 820
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Abadie, Alberto, and Spiess, Jann. 2020. “Robust Post-matching Inference.” Journal of the American Statistical Association. https://doi.org/10.1080/01621459.2020.1840383.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amos, Brian, and McDonald, Michael P.. 2020. “A Method to Audit the Assignment of Registered Voters to Districts and Precincts.” Political Analysis 28 (3): 356–71.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Amos, Brian, McDonald, Michael P., and Watkins, Russell. 2017. “When Boundaries Collide: Constructing a National Database of Demographic and Voting Statistics.” Public Opinion Quarterly 81 (S1): 385–400.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bell, Monica C. 2017. “Police Reform and the Dismantling of Legal Estrangement.” The Yale Law Journal 126 (7): 2054–150.Google Scholar
Bousquet, Steve. 2018. “Judge: Florida’s Early Voting-on-Campus Ban Shows ‘Stark Pattern of Discrimination.’” Tampa Bay Times, July 24, 2018. https://www.tampabay.com/florida-politics/buzz/2018/07/24/judge-faults-state-and-approves-early-voting-on-college-university-campuses/.Google Scholar
Bowers, Melanie, and Preuhs, Robert R.. 2009. “Collateral Consequences of a Collateral Penalty: The Negative Effect of Felon Disenfranchisement Laws on the Political Participation of Nonfelons.” Social Science Quarterly 90 (3): 722–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bowler, Shaun, and Donovan, Todd. 1994. “Information and Opinion Change on Ballot Propositions.” Political Behavior 16 (4): 411–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brayne, Sarah. 2014. “Surveillance and System Avoidance: Criminal Justice Contact and Institutional Attachment.” American Sociological Review 79 (3): 367–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burch, Traci R. 2011. “Turnout and Party Registration among Criminal Offenders in the 2008 General Election.” Law & Society Review 45 (3): 699–730.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burch, Traci R. 2014. “Effects of Imprisonment and Community Supervision on Neighborhood Political Participation in North Carolina.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 651 (1): 184–201.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Colgan, Beth A. 2019. “Wealth-based Penal Disenfranchisement.” Vanderbilt Law Review, 72 (1): 55–189.Google Scholar
Comfort, Megan. 2016. “‘A Twenty-Hour-a-Day Job’: The Impact of Frequent Low-level Criminal Justice Involvement on Family Life.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 665 (1): 63–79.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ewald, Alec C. 2002. “‘Civil Death’: The Ideological Paradox of Criminal Disenfranchisement Law in the United States.” Wisconsin Law Review 2002 (5): 1045–1137.Google Scholar
Fairdosi, Amir Shawn, and Rogowski, Jon C.. 2015. “Candidate Race, Partisanship, and Political Participation: When Do Black Candidates Increase Black Turnout?” Political Research Quarterly 68 (2): 337–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, Fagan, Jeffrey, and Kiss, Alex. 2007. “An Analysis of the New York City Police Department’s ‘Stop-and-Frisk’ Policy in the Context of Claims of Racial Bias.” Journal of the American Statistical Association 102 (479): 813–23.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., Huber, Gregory A., Meredith, Marc, Biggers, Daniel R., and Hendry, David J.. 2017. “Does Incarceration Reduce Voting? Evidence about the Political Consequences of Spending Time in Prison.” The Journal of Politics 79 (4): 1130–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Harris, Alex. 2020. “Losing Vote After Amendment 4 Win Is Unfair, Heartbreaking.” Orlando Sentinel, August 7, 2020. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/guest-commentary/os-op-limiting-amendment-4-is-a-setback-20200807-hvcef76xongytccvyivu7o4s3y-story.html.Google Scholar
Haskins, Anna R., and Jacobsen, Wade C.. 2017. “Schools as Surveilling Institutions? Paternal Incarceration, System Avoidance, and Parental Involvement in Schooling.” American Sociological Review 82 (4): 657–84.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Henig, Jeffrey R. 1994. “To Know Them Is to … ? Proximity to Shelters and Support for the Homeless.” Social Science Quarterly 75 (4): 741–54.Google Scholar
Justice, Benjamin, and Meares, Tracey L.. 2014. “How the Criminal Justice System Educates Citizens.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 651 (1): 159–77.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kelso, Nathaniel, and Migurski, Michael. 2018. Election-geodata [computer file]. Github. https://github.com/nvkelso/election-geodata.Google Scholar
King, Bridgett A., and Erickson, Laura. 2016. “Disenfranchising the Enfranchised: Exploring the Relationship Between Felony Disenfranchisement and African American Voter Turnout.” Journal of Black Studies 47 (8): 799–821.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirk, David S. 2016. “Prisoner Reentry and the Reproduction of Legal Cynicism.” Social Problems 63 (2): 222–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirk, David S., and Matsuda, Mauri. 2011. “Legal Cynicism, Collective Efficacy, and the Ecology of Arrest.” Criminology 49 (2): 443–72.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kirk, David S., and Papachristos, Andrew V.. 2011. “Cultural Mechanisms and the Persistence of Neighborhood Violence.” American Journal of Sociology 116 (4): 1190–1233.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lee, Hedwig, Porter, Lauren C., and Comfort, Megan. 2014. “Consequences of Family Member Incarceration: Impacts on Civic Participation and Perceptions of the Legitimacy and Fairness of Government.” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 651 (1): 44–73.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lerman, Amy E., and Weaver, Vesla M.. 2014. Arresting Citizenship: The Democratic Consequences of American Crime Control. Chicago: The University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leverentz, Andrea. 2011. “Neighborhood Context of Attitudes toward Crime and Reentry.” Punishment & Society 13 (1): 64–92.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McDonald, Michael P. 2002. “The Turnout Rate among Eligible Voters in the States, 1980–2000.” State Politics & Policy Quarterly 2 (2): 199–212.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meares, Tracey. 2017. “Policing and Procedural Justice: Shaping Citizens’ Identities to Increase Democratic Participation.” Northwestern University Law Review 111 (6): 1525–36.Google Scholar
Meredith, Marc, and Morse, Michael. 2014. “Do Voting Rights Notification Laws Increase Ex-felon Turnout?” The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 651 (1): 220–49.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Meredith, Marc, and Morse, Michael. 2015. “The Politics of the Restoration of Ex-felon Voting Rights: The Case of Iowa.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 10 (1): 41–100.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Merolla, Jennifer L., Sellers, Abbylin H., and Fowler, Derek J.. 2013. “Descriptive Representation, Political Efficacy, and African Americans in the 2008 Presidential Election.” Political Psychology 34 (6): 863–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miles, Thomas J. 2004. “Felon Disenfranchisement and Voter Turnout.” The Journal of Legal Studies 33 (1): 85–129.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Bryan Lee, and Spillane, Joseph F.. 2012a. “Civil Death: An Examination of Ex-felon Disenfranchisement and Reintegration.” Punishment & Society 14 (4): 402–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Bryan Lee, and Spillane, Joseph F.. 2012b. “Governing the Restoration of Civil Rights for Ex-felons: An Evaluation of the Executive Clemency Board in Florida.” Contemporary Justice Review 15 (4): 413–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miller, Peter, and Chaturvedi, Neilan S.. 2018. “Get Out the Early Vote: Co-ethnic Mobilization and Convenience Voting.” Journal of Elections, Public Opinion and Parties 28 (4): 399–423.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morenoff, Jeffrey D., and Harding, David J.. 2014. “Incarceration, Prisoner Reentry, and Communities.” Annual Review of Sociology 40 (1): 411–29.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Morris, Kevin. 2020. “Neighborhoods and Felony Disenfranchisement: The Case of New York City.” Urban Affairs Review. https://doi.org/10.1177/1078087420921522.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, Kevin. 2021a. “Replication Data for: Turnout and Amendment Four: Mobilizing Eligible Voters Close to Formerly Incarcerated Floridians.” Harvard Dataverse. Dataset. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/A81LPK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, Kevin. 2021b. “Welcome Home—Now Vote! Voting Rights Restoration and Postsupervision Participation.” Social Science Quarterly 102 (1): 140–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orlando Sentinel Editorial Board. 2018. “Florida’s Election 2018: Our Endorsements for Governor, U.S. Senate, U.S. House and the Amendments” Orlando Sentinel, October 19. https://www.orlandosentinel.com/opinion/editorials/os-op-orlando-sentinel-endorsements-20181018-htmlstory.html#amend4%5D.Google Scholar
Ramadan, Lulu, Stucka, Mike, and Washington, Wayne. 2018. “Florida Felon Voting Rights: Who Got Theirs Back under Scott?” The Palm Beach Post, October 25. https://www.palmbeachpost.com/news/20181025/florida-felon-voting-rights-who-got-theirs-back-under-scott.Google Scholar
Remster, Brianna, and Kramer, Rory. 2018. “Race, Space, and Surveillance: Understanding the Relationship between Criminal Justice Contact and Institutional Involvement.” Socius 4 (January). https://doi.org/10.1177/2378023118761434.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Robles, Frances. 2018. “1.4 Million Floridians With Felonies Win Long-denied Right to Vote.” The New York Times, November 7. https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/07/us/florida-felon-voting-rights.html.Google Scholar
Sampson, Robert J., and Bartusch, Dawn Jeglum. 1998. “Legal Cynicism and (Subcultural?) Tolerance of Deviance: The Neighborhood Context of Racial Differences.” Law & Society Review 32 (4): 777–804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schlakman, Mark. 2018. “Some Facts and Figures You Might Not Know about Civil Rights Restoration in Florida.” Tampa Bay Times, April 19. https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/columns/Column-Some-facts-and-figures-you-might-not-know-about-civil-rights-restoration-in-Florida_167477194/.Google Scholar
Sekhon, Jasjeet S. 2011. “Multivariate and Propensity Score Matching Software with Automated Balance Optimization: The Matching Package for R.” Journal of Statistical Software 42 (7): 1–52.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shaker, Lee. 2012. “Local Political Knowledge and Assessments of Citizen Competence.” Public Opinion Quarterly 76 (3): 525–37.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Jamil. 2018. “Andrew Gillum Is Ready. Is Florida?” Rolling Stone, October 31. https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/andrew-gillum-florida-governor-race-749651/.Google Scholar
Speri, Alice. 2018. “Florida’s Amendment 4 Would Restore Voting Rights to 1.4 Million People.” The Intercept, November 3. https://theintercept.com/2018/11/03/florida-felon-voting-rights-amendment-4/.Google Scholar
Stern, Mark Joseph. 2019. “Florida Republicans Are Sabotaging a Constitutional Amendment That Gave Felons the Right to Vote.” Slate Magazine, March 20. https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2019/03/florida-republicans-felon-voting-rights-amendment-4.html.Google Scholar
Sun Sentinel Editorial Board. 2018. “Five good—seven bad—amendments for Florida’s Constitution.” Sun Sentinel, October 5. https://www.sun-sentinel.com/opinion/endorsements/fl-op-end-good-bad-constitutionalamendments-20181005-story.html.Google Scholar
Tampa Bay Times Editorial Board. 2018. “Times Recommends: Yes on Amendment 4.” Tampa Bay Times, October 3. https://www.tampabay.com/opinion/editorials/times-recommends-yes-on-amendment-4-20180928/.Google Scholar
Taylor, Adam. 2018. “Florida’s Move to Allow Ex-felons to Vote Brings U.S. Closer to International Election Norms.” Washington Post, November 7. https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2018/11/07/floridas-move-allow-ex-felons-vote-brings-us-closer-international-election-norms/.Google Scholar
Tragos, George E., and Sartes, Peter A.. 2008. “Withhold of Adjudication: What Everyone Needs to Know.” The Florida Bar Journal 82 (2): 48.Google Scholar
Travis, , , Jeremy, and Waul, Michelle, eds. 2003. Prisoners Once Removed: The Impact of Incarceration and Reentry on Children, Families, and Communities. Washington, DC: Urban Institute Press.Google Scholar
Uggen, Christopher, Larson, Ryan, and Shannon, Sarah. 2016. “6 Million Lost Voters: State-level Estimates of Felony Disenfranchisement, 2016.” Research Report. The Sentencing Project. https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/6-million-lost-voters-state-level-estimates-felony-disenfranchisement-2016/.Google Scholar
United States Postal Service. 2015. “Publication 28 Postal Addressing Standards: Appendix C.” Accessed February 10, 2020. https://pe.usps.com/text/pub28/28apc_002.htm.Google Scholar
Walker, Hannah L. 2014. “Extending the Effects of the Carceral State: Proximal Contact, Political Participation, and Race.” Political Research Quarterly 67 (4): 809–22.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walker, Hannah L. 2020. “Targeted: The Mobilizing Effect of Perceptions of Unfair Policing Practices.” The Journal of Politics 82 (1): 119–34.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Walker, Hannah L., and García-Castañon, Marcela. 2017. “For Love and Justice: The Mobilizing of Race, Gender, and Criminal Justice Contact.” Politics & Gender 13 (4): 541–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Washington, Ebonya. 2006. “How Black Candidates Affect Voter Turnout.” The Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (3): 973–98.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Weaver, Vesla M., and Lerman, Amy E.. 2010. “Political Consequences of the Carceral State.” American Political Science Review 104 (4): 817–33.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, Ariel. 2019a. “Family Matters? Voting Behavior in Households with Criminal Justice Contact.” American Political Science Review 113 (2): 607–13.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
White, Ariel. 2019b. “Misdemeanor Disenfranchisement? The Demobilizing Effects of Brief Jail Spells on Potential Voters.” American Political Science Review 113 (2): 311–24.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Supplementary material: Link

Morris Dataset

Dataset

https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/A81LPK
Link
Supplementary material: PDF

Morris supplementary material

Morris supplementary material

Download Morris supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 1 MB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.