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Strategic Politicians and Unresponsive Voters

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Richard Born
Richard Born*
Affiliation:
Vassar College
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Abstract

To resolve the paradoxical finding that economic conditions and presidential popularity powerfully relate to quadrennial movement in the House vote, but explain little individual voting variation, Jacobson and Kernell have advanced their “strategic politicians” model of midterm elections. Purportedly, the early-year political environment helps determine how many of a party's strong potential contenders risk challenging incumbents; voters in turn respond to the quality of candidates before them in November, and thus indirectly reward the party favored by this early-year environment. Despite its current prominence, however, the theory does not stand up to empirical investigation. A time-series equation of midterm outcomes regressed on early-year national conditions does not fare particularly well when contrasted with comparable equations assuming direct-effects voting. Furthermore, challenger quality has only a weak influence on individual voters—subordinate, in fact, to the effects of economic attitudes and presidential evaluations.

Type
Research Notes
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 80 , Issue 2 , June 1986 , pp. 599 - 612
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1986

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