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A Statistical Model for Multiparty Electoral Data

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Jonathan N. Katz  and
Gary King
Jonathan N. Katz
Affiliation:
University of Chicago
Gary King
Affiliation:
Harvard University
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Abstract

We propose a comprehensive statistical model for analyzing multiparty, district-level elections. This model, which provides a tool for comparative politics research analogous to that which regression analysis provides in the American two-party context, can be used to explain or predict how geographic distributions of electoral results depend upon economic conditions, neighborhood ethnic compositions, campaign spending, and other features of the election campaign or aggregate areas. We also provide new graphical representations for data exploration, model evaluation, and substantive interpretation. We illustrate the use of this model by attempting to resolve a controversy over the size of and trend in the electoral advantage of incumbency in Britain. Contrary to previous analyses, all based on measures now known to be biased, we demonstrate that the advantage is small but meaningful, varies substantially across the parties, and is not growing. Finally, we show how to estimate the party from which each party's advantage is predominantly drawn.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 93 , Issue 1 , March 1999 , pp. 15 - 32
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1999

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