Hostname: page-component-6bf8c574d5-m789k Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-03-08T02:09:53.691Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Parties, Brokers, and Voter Mobilization: How Turnout Buying Depends Upon the Party’s Capacity to Monitor Brokers

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  11 March 2016

HORACIO LARREGUY ,
JOHN MARSHALL  and
PABLO QUERUBÍN
HORACIO LARREGUY*
Affiliation:
Harvard University
JOHN MARSHALL*
Affiliation:
Harvard University
PABLO QUERUBÍN*
Affiliation:
New York University
*
Horacio Larreguy is Assistant Professor, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge St., Cambridge, MA 02138 ([email protected]).
John Marshall is Ph.D. candidate, Department of Government, Harvard University, 1737 Cambridge St., Cambridge, MA 02138 ([email protected]).
Pablo Querubín is Assistant Professor, Department of Politics, New York University, 19 W 4th Street, New York, NY 10012 ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Despite its prevalence, little is known about when parties buy turnout. We emphasize the problem of parties monitoring local brokers with incentives to shirk. Our model suggests that parties extract greater turnout buying effort from their brokers where they can better monitor broker performance and where favorable voters would not otherwise turn out. Exploiting exogenous variation in the number of polling stations—and thus electoral information about broker performance—in Mexican electoral precincts, we find that greater monitoring capacity increases turnout and votes for the National Action Party (PAN) and the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI). Consistent with our theoretical predictions, the effect of monitoring capacity on PRI votes varies nonlinearly with the distance of voters to the polling station: it first increases because rural voters—facing larger costs of voting—generally favor the PRI, before declining as the cost of incentivizing brokers increases. This nonlinearity is not present for the PAN, who stand to gain less from mobilizing rural voters.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 110 , Issue 1 , February 2016 , pp. 160 - 179
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Auyero, Javier. 2000. Poor People’s Politics: Peronist Survival Networks and the Legacy of Evita. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.Google Scholar
Berry, Christopher R., Burden, Barry C., and Howell, William G.. 2010. “The President and the Distribution of Federal Spending.” American Political Science Review 104 (4): 783–99.Google Scholar
Bolton, Patrick, and Dewatripont, Mathias. 2005. Contract Theory. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Brady, Henry E., and McNulty, John E.. 2011. “Turning Out to Vote: The Costs of Finding and Getting to the Polling Place.” American Political Science Review 105 (01): 115–34.Google Scholar
Brennan, Geoffrey, and Hamlin, Alan. 1998. “Expressive Voting and Electoral Equilibrium.” Public Choice 95 (1-2): 149–75.Google Scholar
Camp, Edwin. 2012. “Animating the Machine.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Cantú, Francisco. 2014 a. “Groceries for Votes? Clientelistic Strategies in Mexico’s 2012 Election.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Cantú, Francisco. 2014 b. “Identifying Electoral Irregularities in Mexican Local Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 58 (4): 936–51.Google Scholar
Chubb, Judith. 1982. Patronage, Power and Poverty in Southern Italy: A Tale of Two Cities. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Cornelius, Wayne A. 2004. “Mobilized Voting in the 2000 Elections: The Changing Efficacy of Vote Buying and Coercion in Mexican Electoral Politics.” In Mexico’s Pivotal Democratic Elections: Candidates, Voters, and the Presidential Campaign of 2000, eds. Dominguez, Jorge I. and Lawson, Chappell. Stanford: Stanford University Press, pp. 47–65.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and Kousser, J. Morgan. 1981. “Turnout and Rural Corruption: New York as a Test Case.” American Journal of Political Science 25 (4): 646–63.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., and McCubbins, Mathew D.. 1986. “Electoral Politics as a Redistributive Game.” Journal of Politics 48 (2): 370–89.Google Scholar
Cox, Gary W., Rosenbluth, Frances M., and Thies, Michael F.. 1998. “Mobilization, Social Networks, and Turnout: Evidence from Japan.” World Politics 50 (3): 447–74.Google Scholar
Diaz-Cayeros, Alberto, Estévez, Federico, and Magaloni, Beatrix. 2007. “Clientelism and Portfolio Diversification: A Model of Electoral Investment with Applications to Mexico.” In Patrons of Policies: Patterns of Democratic Accountability and Political Competition, eds. Kitschelt, Herbert and Wilkinson, Steven. London: Cambridge University Press, pp. 182–205.Google Scholar
Diaz-Cayeros, Alberto, Estévez, Federico, and Magaloni, Beatrix. forthcoming. Strategies of Vote Buying: Democracy, Clientelism, and Poverty Relief in Mexico. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Dunning, Thad, and Stokes, Susan C.. 2008. Clientelism as Persuasion and as Mobilization. In American Political Science Association annual meeting.Google Scholar
Enos, Ryan D. and Hersh, Eitan D.. 2015. “Party Activists as Campaign Advertisers: The Ground Campaign as a Principal-Agent Problem.” American Political Science Review 109 (2): 252–78.Google Scholar
Finan, Frederico, and Schechter, Laura. 2012. “Vote-Buying and Reciprocity.” Econometrica 80 (2): 863–81.Google Scholar
Fox, Jonathan. 1994. “The Difficult Transition from Clientelism to Citizenship: Lessons from Mexico.” World Politics 46 (2): 151–84.Google Scholar
Gans-Morse, Jordan, Mazzuca, Sebastian, and Nichter, Simeon. 2013. “Varieties of Clientelism: Machine Politics during Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 58 (2): 415–32.Google Scholar
Garrido de Sierra, Sebastián. 2013 a. “The Definitive Reform. How the 1996 Electoral Reform Triggered the Demise of the PRI’s Dominant-Party Regime.” Unpublished doctoral dissertation. University of California, Los Angeles.Google Scholar
Garrido de Sierra, Sebastián. 2013 b. “Eroded Unity and Clientele Migration. Explaining The Demise of the PRI Regime.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Gimpel, James G., and Schuknecht, Jason E.. 2003. “Political Participation and the Accessibility of the Ballot Box.” Political Geography 22 (5): 471–88.Google Scholar
Gingerich, Daniel W. 2014. “Brokered Politics in Brazil: An Empirical Analysis.” Quarterly Journal of Political Science 9 (3): 269–300.Google Scholar
Gingerich, Daniel W., and Medina, Luis Fernando. 2013. “The Endurance and Eclipse of the Controlled Vote: A Formal Model of Vote Brokerage Under the Secret Ballot.” Economics and Politics 25 (3): 453–80.Google Scholar
Gonzalez-Ocantos, Ezequiel, De Jonge, Chad Kiewiet, Meléndez, Carlos, Osorio, Javier, and Nickerson, David W.. 2012. “Vote Buying and Social Desirability Bias: Experimental Evidence from Nicaragua.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (1): 202–17.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gray, Mark, and Caul, Miki. 2000. “Declining Voter Turnout in Advanced Industrial Democracies, 1950 to 1997 the Effects of Declining Group Mobilization.” Comparative Political Studies 33 (9): 1091–122.Google Scholar
Holland, Alicia, and Palmer-Rubin, Brian. 2014. “Beyond the Machine: Clientelistic Brokers and Interest Organizations in Latin America.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Holmstrom, Bengt. 1982. “Moral Hazard in Teams.” Bell Journal of Economics 13 (2): 324–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Imbens, Guido W., and Lemieux, Thomas. 2008. “Regression Discontinuity Designs: A Guide to Practice.” Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 615–35.Google Scholar
Keefer, Philip. 2007. “Clientelism, Credibility, and the Policy Choices of Young Democracies.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (4): 804–21.Google Scholar
Kitschelt, Herbert, and Wilkinson, Steven I.. 2007. Citizen-Politician Linkages: An Introduction. In Patrons, Clients, and Policies: Patterns of Democratic Accountability and Political Competition. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1–49.Google Scholar
Langston, Joy. 2012. “Party Change: Mexico’s PRI, from Hegemony to Democracy, 1980 to 2006.” Book manuscript.Google Scholar
Larreguy, Horacio. 2013. “Monitoring Political Brokers: Evidence from Clientelistic Networks in Mexico.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Larreguy, Horacio A., Montiel, Cesar, and Querubín, Pablo. 2015. “The Role of Labor Unions as Political Machines: Evidence from the Case of the Mexican Teachers’ Union.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Leighley, Jan E., and Nagler, Jonathan. 2007. “Unions, Voter Turnout, and Class Bias in the US Electorate, 1964–2004.” Journal of Politics 69 (2): 430–41.Google Scholar
León, Gianmarco. 2013. “Turnout, Political Preferences and Information: Experimental Evidence from Perú.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Levitsky, Steven. 2014. “Brokers beyond Clientelism: A New Perspective on Brokerage through the Argentine Case.”Google Scholar
Lindbeck, Assar, and Weibull, Jörgen W.. 1987. “Balanced-budget Redistribution as the Outcome of Political Competition.” Public Choice 52 (3): 273–97.Google Scholar
Magaloni, Beatriz. 2006. Voting for Autocracy: Hegemonic Party Survival and its Demise in Mexico. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, Paul S. 2003. “Voting’s Rewards: Voter Turnout, Attentive Publics, and Congressional Allocation of Federal Money.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (1): 110–27.Google Scholar
McCrary, Justin. 2008. “Manipulation of the Running Variable in the Regression Discontinuity Design: A Density Test.” Journal of Econometrics 142 (2): 698–714.Google Scholar
Mercado, Lauro Gasca. 2013. “Clientelismo Electoral: Compra, Coacción y Otros Mecanismos que Limitan el Voto Libre y Secreto en México.” In Fortalezas y Debilidades del Sistema Electoral Mexicano (2000–2012): Ideas para una Nueva Reforma Electoral, eds. Ugalde, Luis Carlos and de Mola, Gustavo Rivera Loret. México D.F.: Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias, pp. 236–75.Google Scholar
Nichter, Simeon. 2008. “Vote Buying or Turnout Buying? Machine Politics and the Secret Ballot.” American Political Science Review 102 (1): 19–31.Google Scholar
Nichter, Simeon, and Palmer-Rubin, Brian. 2014. “Clientelism, Declared Support and Mexico’s 2012 Campaign.” In Mexico’s Evolving Democracy: A Comparative Study of the 2012 Elections, eds. Dominguez, Jorge I., Greene, Kenneth G., Lawson, Chappell, and Moreno, Alejandro. Baltimore: John Hopkins University Press, pp. 200–226.Google Scholar
Nichter, Simeon, and Peress, Michael. 2014. “Request Fulfilling: When Citizens Ask for Clientelist Benefits.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Nickerson, David W., Friedrichs, Ryan D., and King, David C.. 2006. “Partisan Mobilization Campaigns in the Field: Results from a Statewide Turnout Experiment in Michigan.” Political Research Quarterly 59 (1): 85–97.Google Scholar
Palfrey, Thomas R., and Rosenthal, Howard. 1985. “Voter Participation and Strategic Uncertainty.” The American Political Science Review 79 (1): 62–78.Google Scholar
Rakove, Milton L. 1976. Don’t Make No Waves. . . Don’t Back No Losers: An Insiders’ Analysis of the Daley Machine. Bloomington: Indiana University Press.Google Scholar
Robinson, James A., and Verdier, Thierry. 2013. “The Political Economy of Clientelism.” Scandinavian Journal of Economics 115 (2): 260–91.Google Scholar
Rueda, Miguel R. 2013. “Election Aggregates and the Choice of Electoral Manipulation Strategies.” Working paper.Google Scholar
Rueda, Miguel R. 2015. “Buying Votes with Imperfect Local Knowledge and a Secret Ballot.” Journal of Theoretical Politics 27 (3): 428–56.Google Scholar
Smith, Alastair, and de Mesquita, Bruce Bueno. 2012. “Contingent Prize Allocation and Pivotal Voting.” British Journal of Political Science 42 (2): 371–92.Google Scholar
Stokes, Susan C. 2005. “Perverse Accountability: A Formal Model of Machine Politics with Evidence from Argentina.” American Political Science Review 99 (3): 315–25.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stokes, Susan C., Dunning, Thad, Nazareno, Marcelo, and Brusco, Valeria. 2013. Brokers, Voters, and Clientelism: The Puzzle of Distributive Politics. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Szwarcberg, Mariela. 2012 a. “Revisiting Clientelism: A Network Analysis of Problem-Solving Networks in Argentina.” Social Networks 34 (2): 230–40.Google Scholar
Szwarcberg, Mariela. 2012 b. “Uncertainty, Political Clientelism, and Voter Turnout in Latin America: Why Parties Conduct Rallies in Argentina.” Comparative Politics 45 (1): 88–106.Google Scholar
Ugalde, Luis Carlos, and de Mola, Gustavo Rivera Loret. 2013. Clientelismo Electoral: Coacción y Compra del Voto en México. In Fortalezas y Debilidades del Sistema Electoral Mexicano (2000–2012): Ideas para una nueva reforma electoral, ed. Ugalde, Luis Carlos and de Mola, Gustavo Rivera Loret. México D.F.: Centro de Estudios Espinosa Yglesias, pp. 35–40.Google Scholar
Vicente, Pedro C. 2014. “Is Vote Buying Effective? Evidence from a Field Experiment in West Africa.” Economic Journal 124 (February): 356–87.Google Scholar
Wang, Chin-Shou, and Kurzman, Charles. 2007. The Logistics: How to Buy Votes. In Elections for Sale: The Causes And Consequences of Vote Buying, ed. Schaffer, Frederic C.. Boulder, CO: Lynner Rienner, pp. 61–78.Google Scholar
Weitz-Shapiro, Rebecca. 2012. “What Wins Votes: Why some Politicians Opt Out of Clientelism.” American Journal of Political Science 56 (3): 568–83.Google Scholar
Wilson, James Q. 1960. Negro Politics: The Search for Leadership. Glencoe, IL: Free Press.Google Scholar
Supplementary material: PDF

Larreguy supplementary material

Online Appendix

Download Larreguy supplementary material(PDF)
PDF 224.9 KB
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.