Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-grxwn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-27T11:21:14.510Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Opportunity, Willingness, and the Diffusion of War

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Randolph M. Siverson  and
Harvey Starr
Randolph M. Siverson
Affiliation:
University of California, Davis
Harvey Starr
Affiliation:
University of South Carolina
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Using borders and alliances as indicators of opportunity and willingness, respectively, we test the relationship between these and the diffusion of war during the 1816–1965 period. The impact of borders and alliances, individually and in combination, on the growth of ongoing war through “infectious” diffusion is shown through the comparison of baseline cases to cases where states at peace were exposed to various “treatments” comprised of warring border nations or warring alliance partners. The findings indicate that the probability of war diffusion is substantially increased as opportunities and willingness increase, particularly when such geographic and political factors are combined. The applicability of the opportunity and willingness framework to the study of war and diffusion is expanded and confirmed.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 84 , Issue 1 , March 1990 , pp. 47 - 67
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1990

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alcock, Norman Z. 1972. The War Disease. Oakville, Ontario: Canadian Peace Research Institute Press.Google Scholar
Altfeld, Michael, and Mesquita, Bruce Bueno de. 1979. “Choosing Sides in Wars.” International Studies Quarterly 23: 87–112.Google Scholar
Boulding, Kenneth. 1962. Conflict and Defense. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce. 1981. The War Trap. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de, Mesquita, Bruce, , and Lalman, David. 1986. “Reason and War.” American Political Science Review 80: 1113–29.Google Scholar
Davis, William, Duncan, George, and Siverson, Randolph. 1978. “The Dynamics of Warfare, 1816–1965.” American Journal of Political Science 22: 772–92.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul. 1988. “Geography and War: A Review and Assessment of the Empirical Literature.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, St. Louis.Google Scholar
Diehl, Paul F., and Goertz, Gary. 1988. “Territorial Changes and Militarized Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 32:103–22.Google Scholar
Faber, Jan, Houweling, Henk, and Siccama, Jan. 1984. “Diffusion of War: Some Theoretical Considerations and Empirical Evidence.” Journal of Peace Research 21: 277–88.Google Scholar
Garnham, David. 1988. “Balancing or Band-waggoning: Empirical Evidence from Nineteenth- and Twentieth-Century Europe.” Presented at the International Studies Association, St. Louis.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils P. 1969. “The International Airline Network: A Test of the Zipf and Stouffer Hypotheses.” Peace Research Society Papers 11:123–53.Google Scholar
Gochman, Charles S. and Sabrosky, Alan Ned, eds. 1990. Prisoners of War? Nation-States in the Modern Era. Lexington, MA: D.C. Heath.Google Scholar
Henige, David P. 1970. Colonial Governors from the Fifteenth Century to the Present. Madison: University of Wisconsin Press.Google Scholar
Hill, Stuart, and Rothchild, Donald. 1986. “The Contagion of Political Conflict in Africa and the World.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 30: 716–35.Google Scholar
Holsti, Ole R., and North, Robert C.. 1965. “The History of Human Conflict.” In The Nature of Human Conflict, ed. McNeil, Elton. Englewood Cliffs, NJ: Prentice Hall.Google Scholar
Kende, Istvan. 1971. “Twenty-five Years of Local Wars.” Journal of Peace Research 8: 5–27.Google Scholar
Kende, Istvan. 1978. “Wars of Ten Years (1967–1976).” Journal of Peace Research 15: 227–41.Google Scholar
Leng, Russell J., and Gochman, Charles S.. 1982. “Dangerous Disputes: A Study of Conflict Behavior and War.” American Journal of Political Science 26: 664–87.Google Scholar
Maoz, Zeev. 1982. Paths to Conflict. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Midlarsky, Manus. 1975. On War. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., Schrodt, P., Randolph M., Siverson, and Harvey, Starr. 1987. “Border and Alliance Effects in the Diffusion of Major Power Conflict, 1815–1965.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., and Starr, Harvey. 1980. “Diffusion, Reinforcement, Geo-politics and the Spread of War.” American Political Science Review 74: 932–46.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., and Harvey, Starr. 1981. “Theoretical and Methodological Issues in the Study of Diffusion and Contagion: Examples from the Research on War.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Philadelphia.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., and Starr, Harvey. 1989. Inquiry, Logic, and International Politics. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Most, Benjamin A., Starr, Harvey, and Siverson, Randolph. 1989. “The Logic and Study of the Diffusion of International Conflict.” In Handbook of War Studies, ed. Midlarsky, Manus. Boston: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
O'Loughlin, John. 1984. “Geographic Models of International Conflicts.” In Political Geography: Recent Advances and Future Directions, ed. Taylor, Peter J. and House, John. London: Croom Helm.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur, and Zeckhauser, Richard. 1966. “An Economic Theory of Alliances.” Review of Economics and Statistics 46: 266–79.Google Scholar
Richardson, Lewis F. 1960. The Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Chicago: Quadrangle.Google Scholar
Ross, Marc, and Homer, Elizabeth. 1976. “Galton's Problem in Cross-National Research.” World Politics 29: 1–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sabrosky, Alan N. 1975. “Ibe Utility of Interstate Alliances.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Washington.Google Scholar
Sabrosky, Alan N. 1980. “Interstate Alliances: Their Reliability and the Expansion of War.” In The Correlates of War, vol. 2, ed. Singer, J. David. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Schattschneider, Elmer E. 1960. The Semi-Sovereign People: A Realist's View of Democracy in America. New York: Holt, Rinehart, and Winston.Google Scholar
Shepherd, William R. 1932. Atlas of Modern History. New York: Henry Holt.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David. 1974. “The Historical Experiment As a Research Strategy in the Study of World Politics.” Political Inquiry 2: 23–42.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, Bremer, Stuart A., and Stuckey, John. 1972. “Capability Distribution, Uncertainty, and Major Power War, 1820–1965.” In Peace, War, and Numbers, ed. Russett, Bruce M.. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1968. “Alliance Aggregation and the Onset of War.” In Quantitative International Politics, ed. Singer, J. David. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1972. The Wages of War, 1816–1965. New York: Wiley.Google Scholar
Singer, J. David, and Small, Melvin. 1974. “Foreign Policy Indicators: Predictors of War in History and in the State of the World Message.” Policy Sciences 5: 271–96.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., and King, Joel. 1979. “Alliances and the Expansion of War.” In To Augur Well: Early Warning Indicators in World Politics, ed. David, J.Singer, and Wallace, M. D.. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., and King, Joel. 1980. “Attributes of National Alliance Membership and War Participation, 1815–1965.” American Journal of Political Science 24: 1–15.Google Scholar
Siverson, Randloph, and Harvey, Starr. 1988. “Alliance and Border Effects on the War Behavior of States: Refining the Interaction Opportunity Model of Diffusion.” Presented to the Third World Congress of the International Peace Science Society, College Park, MD.Google Scholar
Small, Melvin, and David Singer, J.. 1982. Resort to Arms: International and Civil Wars, 1816–1980. Beverly Hills: Sage.Google Scholar
Sprout, Harold, and Sprout, Margaret. 1969. “Environmental Factors in the Study of International Politics.” In International Politics and Foreign Policy, ed. Rosenau, James N.. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Starr, Harvey. 1978a. “‘Opportunity’ and ‘Willingness’ As Ordering Concepts in the Study of War.” International Interactions 4: 363–87.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Starr, Harvey. 1978b. “Alliances: Tradition and Change in American Views on Foreign Military Entanglements.” In American Thinking About Peace and War, ed. Booth, Ken and Wright, Moorhead. New York: Barnes & Noble.Google Scholar
Starr, Harvey, and Most, Benjamin A.. 1976. “The Substance and Study of Borders in International Relations Research.” International Studies Quarterly 20: 581–620.Google Scholar
Starr, Harvey, and Most, Benjamin A.. 1978. “A Return Journey: Richardson, ‘Frontiers’ and Wars in the 1946–1965 Era.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 22: 441–67.Google Scholar
Starr, Harvey, and Most, Benjamin A.. 1983. “Contagion and Border Effects on Contemporary African Conflict.” Comparative Political Studies 16: 92–117.Google Scholar
Starr, Harvey, and Most, Benjamin A.. 1985. “The Forms and Processes of War Diffusion: Research Update on Contagion in African Conflict.” Comparative Political Studies 18: 206–27.Google Scholar
Sullivan, John D. 1974. “International Alliances.” In International Systems, ed. Haas, Michael. New York: Chandler.Google Scholar
Ward, Michael, and Kirby, Andrew. 1987. “Reexamining Spatial Models of International Conflicts.” Annals of the Association of American Geographers 77: 279–83.Google Scholar
Welsh, William A. 1984. “Inter-Nation Interaction and Political Diffusion: Notes Toward a Conceptual Framework.” Presented at the annual meeting of the International Studies Association, Atlanta.Google Scholar
Wright, Quincy. 1965. A Study of War. Rev. ed. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Zipf, George K. 1949. Human Behavior and the Principle of Least Effort. Cambridge, MA: Addison-Wesley.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.