Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-03T19:27:22.232Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

A Dynamic Model of Presidential Nomination Campaigns

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

John H. Aldrich
John H. Aldrich*
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Recent campaigns have demonstrated the importance of dynamic elements in affecting the selection of presidential nominees. This paper develops a mathematical model to analyze these dynamics. The heart of the model is the assumed relationship between the ability to acquire resources and success in primaries and caucuses. The expenditure of resources leads to greater electoral success, while greater electoral success (in particular, exceeding expectations in a primary or caucus) leads to greater resource-gathering capabilities. A difference equation model of these relationships is proposed. I prove that any campaign of this form is necessarily unstable, which implies that most candidates will be “winnowed out” necessarily, while only a very few, but at least one candidate, will necessarily “have momentum.” This result is true whether there are two or many contenders. However, I also argue that the larger the number of candidates, the stronger the dynamic forces, and thus the more rapid the “winnowing out” process.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 74 , Issue 3 , September 1980 , pp. 651 - 669
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1980

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Aldrich, John H. (1980). Before the Convention: Strategies and Choices in Presidential Nomination Campaigns. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aldrich, John H., Gant, Michael M., and Simon, Dennis M. (1978). “To the Victor Belong the Spoils: Momentum in the 1976 Nomination Campaigns.” Unpublished, Michigan State University.Google Scholar
Barber, James David, ed. (1978). Race for the Presidency: The Media and the Nomination Process. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Beniger, James (1976). “Winning the Presidential Nomination: National Polls and State Primary Elections, 1936–1972.” Public Opinion Quarterly 40: 22–38.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brams, Steven J. (1978). The Presidential Election Game. New Haven, Conn: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Collat, Donald, Kelley, Stanley Jr., and Rogowski, Ronald (1976). “Presidential Bandwagons.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Davis, James W. (1967). Presidential Primaries: Road to the White House. New York: Thomas Y. Crowell.Google Scholar
Goldberg, Samuel (1958). Introduction to Difference Equations: With Illustrative Examples from Economics, Psychology, and Sociology. New York: John Wiley.Google Scholar
Matthews, Donald R. (1978). “‘Winnowing’: The News Media and the 1976 Presidential Nomination.” In Barber, James David (ed.), Race for the Presidency: The Media and the Nomination Process. Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice-Hall, pp. 55–78.Google Scholar
Moore, Jonathan, and Fraser, Janet, eds. (1977). Campaign for President, the Managers Look at '76. Cambridge, Mass.: Ballinger.Google Scholar
Orren, Gary, and Schneider, William (1974). “Ideology and Coalition Politics: The 1972 Presidential Primaries.” Presented at the annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Chicago. Revised and retitled “Democrat versus Democrat: Party Factions in the 1972 Presidential Primaries.” Unpublished, Department of Government, Harvard University.Google Scholar
Robinson, Michael J., with McPherson, Karen A. (1977). “Television News and the Presidential Nomination Process.” Unpublished, Department of Politics, Catholic University, Washington, D.C.Google Scholar
Salert, Barbara, and Kofeld, Carol (1979). “Discrete and Continuous Representations of Dynamic Models,” presented at the annual meeting of the Midwest Political Science Association, Chicago.Google Scholar
Samuelson, Paul A. (1966). The Collected Scientific Papers of Paul A. Samuelson, Vol. 1. Edited by Stighty, Joseph E.. Cambridge, Mass.: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Straffin, Philip D. Jr. (1977). “The Bandwagon Curve.“ American Journal of Political Science 21: 695–710.Google Scholar
White, Theodore (1969). The Making of the President, 1968. New York: Pocket Books.Google Scholar
Witcover, Jules (1977). Marathon, The Pursuit of the Presidency 1972–1976. New York: Viking Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.