Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-hvd4g Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-12T12:00:24.880Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Domestic Opposition and Signaling in International Crises

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Kenneth A. Schultz
Kenneth A. Schultz*
Affiliation:
Princeton University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article explores the effect of domestic political competition on the escalation of international crises. It combines an incomplete information model of crisis bargaining with a simple model of two-party electoral choice. One state has two strategic actors—a government and an opposition party—both of which declare openly whether they support the use of force to alter the status quo. The rival state updates its beliefs and selects its strategy in response to both signals. The parties' payoffs depend upon a retrospective evaluation by the domestic electorate. The model shows that the inclusion of a strategic opposition party decreases the ex ante probability of war by helping to reveal information about the state's preferences. This finding has important implications for research on democracy and international conflict, since it suggests a mechanism through which democratic states can overcome informational asymmetries, which have been identified as a central obstacle to negotiation.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 92 , Issue 4 , December 1998 , pp. 829 - 844
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Aldrich, John H., Sullivan, John L., and Borgida, Eugene. 1989. “Foreign Affairs and Issue Voting: Do Presidential Candidates ‘Waltz before a Blind Audience’?” American Political Science Review 83(March):123–41.10.2307/1956437CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Almond, Gabriel A. 1950. The American People and Foreign Policy. New York: Harcourt, Brace.Google Scholar
Benoit, Kenneth. 1996. “Democracies Really Are More Pacific (in General).” Journal of Conflict Resolution 40(December):636–57.10.1177/0022002796040004006CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Lalman, David. 1992. War and Reason: Domestic and International Imperatives. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Morrow, James D., and Zorick, Ethan R.. 1997. “Capabilities, Perception, and Escalation.” American Political Science Review 91(March):15–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, and Siverson, Randolph. 1995. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” American Political Science Review 89(December):841–55.10.2307/2082512CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Siverson, Randolph M., and Wolier, Gary. 1991. “War and the Fate of Regimes: A Comparative Analysis.” American Political Science Review 86(September):638–46.10.2307/1964127CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chan, Steve. 1997. “In Search of the Democratic Peace: Problems and Promise.” Mershon International Studies Review 41(May):59–91.10.2307/222803CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cotton, Timothy C. 1986. “War and American Democracy: Electoral Costs of the Last Five Wars.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 30(December):616–35.10.1177/0022002786030004002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dahl, Robert A. 1971. Polyarchy: Participation and Opposition. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Dixon, William J. 1994. “Democracy and the Peaceful Settlement of Conflict.” American Political Science Review 88(March):14–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper Collins.Google Scholar
Doyle, Michael W. 1986. “Liberalism and World Politics.” American Political Science Review 80(December):1151–71.10.2307/1960861CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Epstein, Leon D. 1964. British Politics in the Suez Crisis. Urbana: University of Illinois Press.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1992. “Threats to Use Force: The Role of Costly Signals in International Crises.” Ph.D. diss. University of California, Berkeley.Google Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1994. “Domestic Political Audiences and the Escalation of International Disputes.” American Political Science Review 88(September):577–92.10.2307/2944796CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49(Summer):379–414.10.1017/S0020818300033324CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris P. 1981. Retrospective Voting in American National Elections. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Gaubatz, Kurt Taylor. 1998. “None Dare Call It Reason.” In Strategic Politicians, Institutions, and Foreign Policy, ed. Siverson, R. M.. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pp. 117–42.Google Scholar
Gleditsch, Nils Petter, and Hegre, Håvard. 1997. “Peace and Democracy: Three Levels of Analysis.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(April):283–310.10.1177/0022002797041002004CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Henk Erich. 01995. “The Causes of War Termination: Domestic Politics and War Aims.” Ph.D. diss. University of Chicago.Google Scholar
Gow, James. 1997. Triumph of the Lack of Will. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Gowa, Joanne. 1995. “Democratic States and International Disputes.” International Organization 49(Summer):511–22.10.1017/S0020818300033361CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hurwitz, Jon, and Peffley, Mark. 1987. “The Means and Ends of Foreign Policy as Determinants of Presidential Support.” American Journal of Political Science 31(May):236–58.10.2307/2111075CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kilgour, D. Marc, and Zagare, Frank C.. 1991. “Credibility, Uncertainty, and Deterrence.” American Journal of Political Science 35(May):305–34.10.2307/2111365CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Krehbiel, Keith. 1991. Information and Legislative Organization. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.8850CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lake, David A. 1992. “Powerful Pacifists: Democratic States and War.” American Political Science Review 86(March):24–37.10.2307/1964013CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Layne, Christopher. 1994. “Kant or Cant: The Myth of the Democratic Peace.” International Security 19(Fall):5–49.10.2307/2539195CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Abdolali, Nasrin. 1989. “Regime Types and International Conflict, 1816–1976.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 33(March):3–23.10.1177/0022002789033001001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Maoz, Zeev, and Russett, Bruce. 1993. “Normative and Structural Causes of the Democratic Peace, 1946–1986.” American Political Science Review 87(September):624–38.10.2307/2938740CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milgrom, Paul, and Roberts, John. 1986. “Relying on the Information of Interested Parties.” Rand Journal of Economics 17(Spring):18–32.10.2307/2555625CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Milner, Helen V. 1997. Interests, Institutions, and Information: Domestic Politics and International Relations. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Mo, Jongryn. 1995. “Domestic Institutions and International Bargaining: The Role of Agent Veto in Two-Level Games.” American Political Science Review 89(December):914–24.10.2307/2082517CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morgan, T. Clifton, and Campbell, Sally H.. 1991. “Domestic Structure, Decisional Constraints and War: So Why Kant Democracies Fight?” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(June):187–211.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1986. “A Spatial Model of International Conflict.” American Political Science Review 80(December):1131–50.10.1017/S000305540018503XCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve: A Limited Information Model of Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 33(November):941–72.10.2307/2111116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nincic, Miroslav, and Hinckley, Barbara. 1991. “Foreign Policy and the Evaluation of Presidential Candidates.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 35(June):333–55.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Offner, John L. 1992. An Unwanted War. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Pace, David. 1996. “Nunn Says Opposing Gulf War Ruined Chances at Presidency.” Chicago Sun-Times, 26 December.Google Scholar
Pahre, Robert, and Papayoanu, Paul A., eds. 1997. “New Games: Modeling Domestic-International Linkages.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(February-Special Issue):1–199.Google Scholar
Powell, Robert. 1990. Nuclear Deterrence Theory: The Problem of Credibility. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 1988. “Diplomacy and Domestic Politics: The Logic of Two-Level Games.” International Organization 42(Summer):427–60.10.1017/S0020818300027697CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ray, James Lee. 1995. Democracy and International Conflict. Columbia: University of South Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Regens, James L., Gaddie, Ronald Keith, and Lockerbie, Brad. 1995. “The Electoral Consequences of Voting to Declare War.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 39(March):168–82.10.1177/0022002795039001007CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rousseau, David L., Gelpi, Christopher, Reiter, Dan, and Huth, Paul K.. 1996. “Assessing the Dyadic Nature of the Democratic Peace, 1918–1988.” American Political Science Review 90(September):512–33.10.2307/2082606CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rummel, R. J. 1979. War, Power, and Peace. Understanding Conflict and War. Vol. 4. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.Google Scholar
Rummel, R. J. 1995. “Democracies ARE Less Warlike Than Other Regimes.” European Journal of International Relations 1(4):457–79.10.1177/1354066195001004003CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Russett, Bruce. 1993. Grasping the Democratic Peace: Principles for a Post-Cold War World. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schelling, Thomas C. 1960. The Strategy of Conflict. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1996. “Domestic Political Competition and Bargaining in International Crises.” Ph.D. diss. Stanford University.Google Scholar
Schultz, Kenneth A. 1998. “Do Democratic Institutions Constrain or Inform?: Contrasting Two Perspectives on Democracy and War.” Princeton University. Typescript.Google Scholar
Senese, Paul D. 1997. “Between Dispute and War: The Effect of Joint Democracy on Interstate Conflict Escalation.” Journal of Politics 59(February):1–27.10.2307/2998213CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Siverson, Randolph M., ed. 1998. Strategic Politicians, Institutions, and Foreign Policy. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.10.3998/mpub.15879CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, Alastair. 1996. “Diversionary Foreign Policy in Democratic Systems.” International Studies Quarterly 40(March):133–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wright, Alan H. 1951. “The Fashoda Affair: A Study in the Age of Imperialism.” A.B. thesis. Department of History, Princeton University.Google Scholar
Zaller, John. 1994. “Strategic Politicians, Public Opinion, and the Gulf Crisis.” In Taken by Storm: The Media, Public Opinion, and U.S. Foreign Policy in the Gulf War. ed. Bennett, W. Lance and Paletz, David L.. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.