Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-t7czq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-28T08:27:39.032Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Crafting Counterrevolution: How Reactionaries Learned to Combat Change in 1848

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 August 2016

KURT WEYLAND
KURT WEYLAND*
Affiliation:
University of Texas at Austin
*
Kurt Weyland is Professor, Department of Government, University of Texas at Austin, Austin TX 78712 ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article examines a neglected topic, the imposition of counterrevolution. Whereas revolution can sweep across whole regions like a tsunami, reaction tends to advance gradually, country by country. As these differences suggest, counterrevolution unfolds in a more deliberate and systematic fashion than revolution, which is fueled by the rash, ill-considered belief that the tsunami's trigger—the striking overthrow of a longstanding ruler by mass protest—is widely replicable. While reactionaries share this facile inference during the revolutionary upsurge, they engage in learning thereafter, rely less on problematic inferences, and resume more rational decision-making. Longstanding experience and practices of open debate and collective deliberation enable them to process information more thoroughly and calibrate their counterrevolutionary plans to domestic opportunities. Consequently, they succeed in reestablishing autocratic control step by step. By demonstrating how reactionaries recuperated their grasp of political reality during the upheavals of 1848, the article elucidates the differential patterns of rationality in politics.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 110 , Issue 2 , May 2016 , pp. 215 - 231
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2016 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Ambrosio, Thomas. 2009. Authoritarian Backlash. Farnham, UK: Ashgate.Google Scholar
Ashour, Omar. 2015. Collusion to Crackdown. Washington, DC: Brookings.Google Scholar
Bamert, Justus. 2013. The Spread of Regime Contention during the Arab Spring. Zürich: Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule.Google Scholar
Barany, Zoltan. 2011. Comparing the Arab Revolts. Journal of Democracy 22: 4 (October): 24–35.Google Scholar
Beach, Derek, and Pedersen, Rasmus. 2013. Process-Tracing Methods. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.Google Scholar
Bendor, Jonathan. 2010. Bounded Rationality and Politics. Berkeley: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Bennett, Andrew. 2010. Process Tracing and Causal Inference. In Brady, Henry and Collier, David, eds. Rethinking Social Inquiry, 2nd ed. Lanham, MD: Rowman & Littlefield, 207–19.Google Scholar
Bismarck, Otto von. 1898. Das Jahr 1848. Chap. in Gedanken und Erinnerungen, vol. 1. Stuttgart: Cotta.Google Scholar
Boerner, Paul. 1920. Erinnerungen eines Revolutionärs, vol. 1. Leipzig: Haberland.Google Scholar
Brownlee, Jason, Masoud, Tarek, and Reynolds, Andrew. 2015. The Arab Spring. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Capoccia, Giovanni, and Ziblatt, Daniel. 2010. The Historical Turn in Democratization Studies. Comparative Political Studies 43: 8–9 (August): 931–68.Google Scholar
Church, Clive. 1983. Europe in 1830. London: Allen & Unwin.Google Scholar
Collier, David. 2011. Understanding Process Tracing. PS: Political Science & Politics 44: 4 (October): 823–30.Google Scholar
Danneman, Nathan, and Ritter, Emily. 2014. Contagious Rebellion and Preemptive Repression. Journal of Conflict Resolution 58: 2 (March): 254–79.Google Scholar
Davenport, Christian. 2007. State Repression and Political Order. Annual Review of Political Science 10: 1–23.Google Scholar
Denzau, Arthur, and North, Douglass. 1994. Shared Mental Models. Kyklos 47: 1 (March): 3–31.Google Scholar
Dipper, Christoph. 1998. Zerfall und Scheitern. In 1848: Revolution in Deutschland. Frankfurt: Insel, 401–19.Google Scholar
Eckstein, Harry. 1988. A Culturalist Theory of Political Change. American Political Science Review 82: 3 (September): 789–804.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Engehausen, Frank. 2007. Die Revolution von 1848/49. Paderborn: Schöningh.Google Scholar
Fenske, Hans, ed. 1996. Quellen zur deutschen Revolution 1848-1849. Darmstadt: Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft.Google Scholar
Friedrich Wilhelm IV. von Preußen. 1906. Briefwechsel mit Ludolf Camphausen, ed. Brandenburg, Erich. Berlin: Paetel.Google Scholar
Gall, Lothar. 1983. Bismarck. Frankfurt: Ullstein.Google Scholar
Gerlach, Ernst Ludwig von. 1903. Aufzeichnungen aus seinem Leben und Wirken, 1795-1877. 2 vols. Schwerin: Bahn.Google Scholar
Gerlach, Ernst Ludwig von. 1970. Von der Revolution zum Norddeutschen Bund, ed. Diwald, Helmut, vol. 2. Göttingen: Vandenhoeck & Ruprecht.Google Scholar
Gerlach, Leopold von. 1891. Denkwürdigkeiten aus dem Leben Leopold von Gerlachs, vol. 1. Berlin: Hertz.Google Scholar
George, Alexander. 1980. Presidential Decisionmaking in Foreign Policy. Boulder: Westview.Google Scholar
Gunitsky, Seva. 2014. From the Spring of Nations to the Arab Spring. Toronto: University of Toronto, manuscript.Google Scholar
Hachtmann, Rüdiger. 1997. Berlin 1848. Bonn: Dietz.Google Scholar
Haenchen, Karl, ed. 1930. Revolutionsbriefe 1848. Leipzig: Koehler.Google Scholar
Häusler, Wolfgang. 1979. Von der Massenarmut zur Arbeiterbewegung. Vienna: Jugend und Volk.Google Scholar
Hale, Henry. 2013. Regime Change Cascades. Annual Review of Political Science 16: 331–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hassel, Paul. 1905. Joseph von Radowitz, vol. 1. Berlin: Mittler.Google Scholar
Heydemann, Steven, and Leenders, Reinoud. 2011. Authoritarian Learning and Authoritarian Resilience. Globalizations 8: 5 (October): 647–53.Google Scholar
Hill, Daniel, and Jones, Zachary. 2014. An Empirical Evaluation of Explanations for State Repression. American Political Science Review 108: 3 (August): 661–87.Google Scholar
Hirschman, Albert. 1982. Shifting Involvements. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Hohenlohe-Ingelfingen, Prinz Kraft zu. 1897. Aus meinem Leben, vol. 1. Berlin: Mittler.Google Scholar
Horvath, Robert. 2013. Putin's Preventive Counter-Revolution. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huntington, Samuel. 1991. The Third Wave. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.Google Scholar
Jones, Bryan. 2001. Politics and the Architecture of Choice. Chicago: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Kahneman, Daniel. 2011. Thinking, fast and slow. Macmillan.Google Scholar
Koesel, Karrie, and Bunce, Valerie. 2013. Diffusion-Proofing. Perspectives on Politics 11:3 (September): 753–68.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kurzman, Charles. 1998. Waves of Democratization. Studies in Comparative International Development 33: 1 (Spring): 42–64.Google Scholar
Lewald, Fanny. (1850) 1969. Erinnerungen aus dem Jahre 1848, ed. Schaefer, Dietrich. Frankfurt: Insel.Google Scholar
March, James, and Simon, Herbert. 1993. Organizations, 2nd ed. Cambridge, MA: Blackwell.Google Scholar
Mayer, Arno. 1971. Dynamics of Counterrevolution in Europe, 1870–1956. New York: Harper & Row.Google Scholar
McDermott, Rose, Fowler, James, and Smirnov, Oleg. 2008. On the Evolutionary Origin of Prospect Theory Preferences. Journal of Politics 70: 2 (April): 335–50.Google Scholar
Olson, Mancur. 1965. The Logic of Collective Action. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Page, Scott. 2007. The Difference. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Payne, John, Bettman, James, and Johnson, Eric. 1993. The Adaptive Decision Maker. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Petrov, Nikolai, and Ryabov, Andrei. 2006. Russia's Role in the Orange Revolution. In Åslund, Anders and McFaul, Michael, eds. Revolution in Orange. Washington, DC: Carnegie Endowment, 145–64.Google Scholar
Poe, Steven, and Tate, Neal. 1994. Repression of Human Rights to Personal Integrity in the 1980s. American Political Science Review 88: 4 (December): 853–72.Google Scholar
Price, Roger. 2001. “The Holy Struggle against Anarchy.” In Europe in 1848, eds. Dowe, Dieter, Haupt, Heinz-Gerhard, et al. New York: Berghahn, 25–54.Google Scholar
Prittwitz, Karl Ludwig von. 1854. Beiträge zur Geschichte des Monats März 1848. In Berlin 1848, ed. Heinrich, Gerd. Berlin: De Gruyter.Google Scholar
Radowitz, Josef von. 1922. Nachgelassene Briefe und Aufzeichnungen zur Geschichte der Jahre 1848–1853, ed. Möring, Walter. Stuttgart: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt.Google Scholar
Rellstab, Ludwig. 1849. Zwei Gespräche mit Seiner Majestät dem Könige Friedrich Wilhelm dem Vierten. Berlin: Decker.Google Scholar
Renshon, Jonathan. 2009. When Public Statements Reveal Private Beliefs. Political Psychology 30: 4 (August): 649–61.Google Scholar
Ritter, Emily Hencken, and Conrad, Courtenay R.. 2016. Preventing and Responding to Dissent: The Observational Challenges of Explaining Strategic Repression. American Political Science Review 110: 1 (February): 85–99.Google Scholar
Schurz, Carl. 1998. Lebenserinnerungen. Zurich: Manesse.Google Scholar
Simon, Herbert. 1976. Administrative Behavior, 3rd ed. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Solingen, Etel. 2012. Of Dominoes and Firewalls. International Studies Quarterly 56: 4 (December): 631–44.Google Scholar
Sperber, Jonathan. 1994. The European Revolutions, 1848–1851. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Stacher, Joshua. 2015. Fragmenting States, New Regimes. Democratization 22: 2 (March): 259–75.Google Scholar
Streckfuss, Adolf. 1948. Berliner März 1848. Berlin-Ost: Das Neue Berlin.Google Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tarrow, Sidney. 2011. Power in Movement, 3rd ed. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Tetlock, Philip. 2005. Expert Political Judgment. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Tolstrup, Jakop. 2015. Problems in Studying the International Dimension of Authoritarianism. APSA-CD 13: 1 (February): 1, 8–11.Google Scholar
Valentin, Veit. (1931) 1998. Geschichte der Deutschen Revolution von 1848–1849. Weinheim: Beltz.Google Scholar
Varnhagen, Karl August. 1862. Tagebücher, vols. 4 & 5. Leipzig: Brockhaus.Google Scholar
Vitzthum, Carl Graf. 1886. Berlin und Wien in den Jahren 1845–1852, 2nd ed. Stuttgart: Cotta.Google Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2014. Making Waves. Cambridge, UK: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Weyland, Kurt. 2012. The Arab Spring. Perspectives on Politics 10: 4 (December): 917–34.Google Scholar
Wilhelm I. von Preußen. 1906. Kaiser Wilhelms Briefe, Reden und Schriften, ed. Berner, Ernst. Berlin: Mittler.Google Scholar
Wilhelm I. von Preußen. 1924. Kaiser Wilhelms I. Weimarer Briefe, ed. Schultze, Johannes. Stuttgart: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt.Google Scholar
Wilhelm I. von Preußen. 1927. Kaiser Wilhelms I. Briefe an seine Schwester Alexandrine, ed. Schultze, Johannes. Berlin: Koehler.Google Scholar
Wolff, Adolf. 1849. Berliner Revolutions-Chronik, vol. 1. Berlin: Dümmler.Google Scholar
Ziblatt, Daniel. 2006. How Did Europe Democratize? World Politics 58: 2 (January): 311–38.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.