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War and the Cycle of Relative Power

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Charles F. Doran  and
Wes Parsons
Charles F. Doran
Affiliation:
Johns Hopkins University
Wes Parsons
Affiliation:
Rice University
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Abstract

Relative nation-state capability follows a generalized nonlinear pattern over long periods. Empirical evidence indicates that between 1816–1975 nine major powers have traversed at least a segment of this relative capability cycle of political ascendancy, maturation and decline. Specific changes in a state's relative capability dynamics increase its propensity to initiate extensive war. Whether the extensiveness of a war is defined in terms of duration, intensity or magnitude, major powers are likely to initiate more extensive wars at the critical inflection and turning points on the curve of relative capability where the linear role perceptions held by government and society change pervasively. This analysis involves a new theoretical focus for examining the causes of war, shifting attention from interactions between nations to the consequences of changes in relative power and to the political evolution of the nation-state itself.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 74 , Issue 4 , December 1980 , pp. 947 - 965
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1980

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