Hostname: page-component-7b9c58cd5d-dkgms Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-03-15T05:29:23.122Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

The Myth of the Vanishing Voter

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  30 May 2017

Michael P. McDonald  and
Samuel L. Popkin
Michael P. McDonald
Affiliation:
University of Illinois, Springfield
Samuel L. Popkin
Affiliation:
University of California, San Diego
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

The apparent decline in voter participation in national elections since 1972 is an illusion created by using the Bureau of the Census estimate of the voting-age population as the denominator of the turnout rate. We construct a more accurate estimate of those eligible to vote, from 1948–2000, using government statistical series to adjust for ineligible but included groups, such as noncitizens and felons, and eligible but excluded groups, such as overseas citizens. We show that the ineligible population, not the nonvoting, has been increasing since 1972. During the 1960s the turnout rate trended downward both nationally and outside the South. Although the average turnout rates for presidential and congressional elections are lower since 1972 than during 1948–70, the only pattern since 1972 is an increased turnout rate in southern congressional elections. While the voting age was lowered to 18 in 1971, the lower turnout rate of young voters accounts for less than one-fourth of reduced voter participation.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 95 , Issue 4 , December 2001 , pp. 963 - 974
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2001

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramson, Paul R., and Aldrich, John H.. 1982. “The Decline of Electoral Participation in American Politics.” American Political Science Review 76 (September): 502–21.Google Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., Aldrich, John H., and Rohde, David W.. 1998. Change and Continuity in the 1996 Elections. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
Abramson, Paul R., Aldrich, John H., and Rohde, David W.. 1991. Change and Continuity in the 1988 Elections, rev. ed. Washington, DC: Congressional Quarterly Press.Google Scholar
William, Andrews. 1966. “American Voting Participation.” Western Political Quarterly 19 (December): 636–52.Google Scholar
Steven, Ansolabehere, and Iyengar, Shanto. 1995. Going Negative: How Attack Ads Shrink and Polarize the Electorate. New York: Free Press.Google Scholar
Beck, Allen J. 2000. “Prisoners in 1999.” Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Programs.Google Scholar
Beck, Allen J. 2001. “Prisoners in 2000.” Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Programs.Google Scholar
Brody, Richard A. 1978. “The Puzzle of Political Participation in America.” In The New American Political System, ed. King, Anthony. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute. Pp. 287–324.Google Scholar
Peter, Bruce. 1997. “Measuring Things: How the Experts Got Voter Turnout Wrong Last Year.” The Public Perspective 8 (October): 39–43. New Haven, CT: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.Google Scholar
Walter Dean, Bruce. 1965. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59 (March): 7–28.Google Scholar
Walter Dean, Burnham,. 1982. The Current Crisis in American Politics. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Walter Dean, Burnham,. 1985. “Those High Nineteenth-Century American Voting Turnouts: Fact or Fiction?” The Journal of Interdisciplinary History 26(4): 613–44.Google Scholar
Walter Dean, Burnham,. 1987. “The Turnout Problem.” In Elections American Style, ed. Reichley, A. James. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution. Pp. 97–133.Google Scholar
Cassel, Carol A., and Luskin, Robert C.. 1988. “Simple Explanations of Turnout Decline.” American Political Science Review 82 (December): 1321–30.Google Scholar
Cavanagh, Thomas E. 1981. “Changes in American Voter Turnout, 1964–1976” Political Science Quarterly 96 (Spring): 53–65.Google Scholar
Royce, Crocker. 1996. “Voter Registration and Turnout: 1948–1994.” CRS Report for Congress: CRS-122. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Royce, Crocker. 1997. “Voter Registration and Turnout: 1996.” Memorandum. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service. Google Scholar
Royce, Crocker. 1999. “Voter Registration and Turnout: 1998.” Memorandum. Washington, DC: Congressional Research Service.Google Scholar
Day, Jennifer C. 1998. “Projections of the Voting-Age Population for States: November 1998.” Current Population Reports, P25–1132. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census.Google Scholar
James, DeNardo. 1998. “The Turnout Crash of 1972: Hard-Won Lessons in Electoral Participation.” In Politicians and Party Politics, ed. Geer, John G.. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press. Pp. 80–101.Google Scholar
Jamie, Fellner, and Mauer, Marc. 1998. “Losing the Vote: The Impact of Felony Disenfranchisement Laws in the United States.” Washington, DC: The Sentencing Project and Human Rights Watch.Google Scholar
Franklin, Mark N., and Hirczy de Mino, Wolfgang P.. 1998. “Separated Powers, Divided Government, and Turnout in U.S. Presidential Elections” American Book of Political Science 42 (January): 316–26.Google Scholar
Curtis, Gans. 1997. “Measuring Things: How the Experts Got Voter Turnout Wrong Last Year.” The Public Perspective 8 (October): 44–8. New Haven, CT: The Roper Center for Public Opinion Research.Google Scholar
Kousser, Morgan J. 1999. Colorblind Injustice: Minority Voting Rights and the Undoing of the Second Reconstruction. Chapel Hill: University of North Carolina Press.Google Scholar
Leighley, Jan E., and Nagler, Jonathan. 1992. “Individual and Systemic Influences on Turnout: Who Votes? 1984.” Book of Politics 54 (August): 718–40.Google Scholar
Arend, Lijphart. 1997. “Unequal Participation: Democracy's Unresolved Dilemma.” American Political Science Review 91 (March): 1–14.Google Scholar
Love, Margaret C., and Kuzma, Susan M.. 1996. “Civil Disabilities of Felons: A State-by-State Survey.” Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice, Office of the Pardon Attorney.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and Shanks, J. Merrill. 1996. The New American Voter. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.Google Scholar
Martin, Plissner, and Mitofsky, Warren. 1981. “What If They Held an Election and Nobody Came?” Public Opinion (February/March): 50–1.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham Jr. 1986. “American Voter Turnout in Comparative Perspective.” American Political Science Review 80 (March): 17–44.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 1995. “Bowling Alone: America's Declining Social Capital.” Book of Democracy 6 (January): 65–78.Google Scholar
Putnam, Robert D. 2000. Bowling Alone: The Collapse and Revival of American Community. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hansen, John Mark. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillian.Google Scholar
Shaffer, Stephan D. 1981. “A Multivariate Explanation of Decreasing Turnout in Presidential Elections, 1960–1976.” American Book of Political Science 25 (February): 68–95.Google Scholar
Shields, Todd G., and Goidel, Robert K.. 1997. “Participation Rates, Socioeconomic Class Biases, and Congressional Elections: A Crossvalidation.” American Book of Political Science 41 (April): 683–91.Google Scholar
Ruy, Teixeira. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Washington, DC: Brookings Institution.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Various years a. Current Population Survey: Voter Supplement File [computer files]. ICPSR version. Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census [producer], various years. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], various years.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Various years b. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of the Census. Various years c. “Projections of the Voting-Age Population for States: November.” Current Population Reports, Series P25-[various]. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. 1996. “Non-Citizens in the Federal Criminal Justice System, 1984–1994.” NCJ-160934. Washington, DC: Department of Justice.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. 1997. Historical Statistics on Prisoners in State and Federal Institutions, Yearend 1925–1986: United States [computer file] (Study #8912). ICPSR ed. Arbor, Ann , MI: Inter-university Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor].Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. 2000. “U.S. Correctional Population Reaches 6.3 Million Men and Women, Represents 3.1 Percent of the Adult U.S. Population.” Washington, DC: U.S. Department of Justice.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics. Various years. Correctional Populations in the United States. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. General Accounting Office (GAO). 1997. “2000 Census: Progress Made on Design but Risks Remain.” Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service. 1997. Statistical Yearbook of the Immigration and Naturalization Service, 1996. Washington, DC: U.S. Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E. 1993. “Building a Coalition to Ease Voter Registration.” Paper presented at the 1993 annual meeting of the American Political Science Association, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Stephen J.. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.