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The J-Curve Theory and the Black Urban Riots: An Empirical Test of Progressive Relative Deprivation Theory*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Abraham H. Miller ,
Louis H. Bolce  and
Mark Halligan
Abraham H. Miller
Affiliation:
University of Cincinnati
Louis H. Bolce
Affiliation:
Fordham University, Lincoln Center
Mark Halligan
Affiliation:
Northwestern University Law School
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Abstract

A time-series analysis of individual level, perceptual data disconfirms the J-curve theory of the black urban riots (i.e., that they arise because a period of progress was followed by a sharp decline) and suggests that ambiguities surrounding black people's perceptions of their economic situation probably led to the frustration that culminated in urban violence.

The methodological component of the research deals with such problems of relative deprivation-based research as: (1) the substitution of aggregate, objective-level indicators for perceptual theoretical concepts; (2) the correspondences between objective and perceptual data on both a point-by-point basis and across time-series patterns; (3) the empirical implications of failing to look at important subgroup distinctions; and (4) the crucial assumption of all forms of relative deprivation theory that future expectations of need fulfillment, especially in the period of rising satisfactions, are a function of current levels of need fulfillment. The research calls for modifications in the structure and application of relative deprivation theory in light of the findings in these areas.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 71 , Issue 3 , September 1977 , pp. 964 - 982
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1977

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Footnotes

*

This research was funded by the University of Cincinnati Research Council through an award to Professor Miller. The data were obtained from the Inter-University Consortium for Political Research through the facilities of the University of Cincinnati Behavioral Sciences Laboratory. The authors alone are responsible for the use and interpretation of the data. At the time of this study, Louis H. Bolce was a Charles Phelps Taft Graduate Fellow in Political Science and Mark Halligan was an Undergraduate Fellow in Political Science. William Klecka and Alfred Tuchfarber, University of Cincinnati, Ted Robert Gurr, Northwestern University, and four anonymous reviewers contributed useful and insightful suggestions which are gratefully acknowledged.

References

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2 de Tocqueville, Alexis, The Old Regime and the French Revolution, translated by Gilbert, Stuart (Garden City, N.J.: Doubleday Anchor, 1955), p. 177 Google Scholar. Tocqueville's observation that those parts of France which experienced the greatest degree of positive change also showed the greatest popular discontent is sometimes referred to as Tocqueville's paradox. Two different explanations of the paradox exist. The most common, and the one used by Davies and in this research, is the rising expectations thesis. A less well-known interpretation is referred to as “the present value of the past.” This argues that present achievement is devaluated by the perception of past costs. See, in this regard, Wolf, Charles Jr., “The Present Value of the Past,” mimeo (Santa Monica: The Rand Corporation, 1969)Google Scholar.

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5 In the philosophy of science this problem is sometimes alluded to as a problem in reductionism. See, for example, Brodbeck, May, “Methodological Individualism: Definition and Reduction,” in Readings in the Philosophy of the Social Sciences, ed. Brodbeck, May (New York: The MacMillian Co., 1968)Google Scholar.

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7 McPhail, Clark, “Civil Disorder Participation: A Critical Examination of Recent Research,” American Sociological Review, 36 (12, 1971), 1058–1073 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed.

8 See, in this regard, Bloombaum, Milton, “The Conditions Underlying Race Riots as Portrayed by Multidimensional Scalogram Analysis: A Reanalysis of Lieberson and Silverman's Data,” American Sociological Review, 33 (02, 1968), 76–91 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Downes, Bryan T., “Social Characteristics of Riot Cities: A Comparative Study,” Social Science Quarterly, 49 (12, 1968), 504–520 Google Scholar; Lieberson, Stanley and Silverman, Arnold, “The Precipitants and Underlying Conditions of Race Riots,” American Sociological Review, 30 (12, 1965), 887–898 CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed; Spilerman, Seymour, “The Causes of Racial Disturbances: A Comparison of Alternative Explanations,” American Sociological Review, 35 (08, 1970), 627–649 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Wanderer, Jules, “An Index of Riot Severity and Some Correlates,” American Journal of Sociology, 74 (03, 1969), 500–505 CrossRefGoogle Scholar.

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12 Ibid., p. 724.

13 McPhail, , “Civil Disorder Participation,” p. 1059 Google Scholar.

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19 In addition to the sociological literature noted above in footnote 8, see, for example: Feierabend, Ivo K., Feierabend, R. L., and Nesvold, B. A., “Social Change and Political Violence: Cross-National Patterns,” in Anger, Violence and Politics: Theories and Research, ed. Feierabend, Ivo K., Feierabend, Rosalind L., and Gurr, Ted Robert (Englewood Cliffs, N.J.: Prentice Hall Google Scholar, Feierabend, Ivo K., Feierabend, Rosalind L., “Aggressive Behaviors within Polities 1948–1962: A Cross-National Study,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 10 (09, 1966), 249–271 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; Tanter, Raymond and Midlarsky, Manus, “A Theory of Revolution,” Journal of Conflict Resolution, 11 (09, 1967), 264–280 CrossRefGoogle Scholar; and Ted Robert Gurr, “A Causal Model of Civil Strife: Using New Indices,” in Anger, Violence and Politics, ed. I. K. Feierabend et al. Much to his credit, of all the authors cited, Gurr, Ibid., p. 210, is the only one to acknowledge the level-of-analysis problem.

20 This latter operationalizations was suggested, in part, by Duncan, Otis D., “Discrimination Against Negroes,” in Social Intelligence for America's Future, ed. Gross, Bertram M. (Boston: Allyn and Bacon, 1969)Google Scholar. Discrimination is measured by taking the slope and intercept of the regression equation for whites and plugging in the observed independent variable (education) scores for blacks. The resultant predicted dependent variable (income) scores for blacks are subtracted from the blacks' actual score on the dependent variable. The residual [Yp (if respondent were white) – Ya] is the measure of deprivation.

A wholly individual measure, based on differences between actual and predicted income, was desired for the “differ” operationalization. Such a measure would have been very similar to the one used for the “discrim” operationalization. In the calculation of measures of association, the type of measure is feasible. In calculating summary measures for the purpose of obtaining averages for blacks, this is not possible. In the case of any individual black, the “differ” is the residual between predicted income and actual income. The average of the residuals [Σ(Ŷi–Ya)/N] however, always equals zero. The operationalization is meaningful for an individual black, but it aggregates to zero when cumulated for the group. To provide an analogous measure for the purpose of calculating an average, the average difference of predicted income for whites and blacks is calculated, given each groups' respective regression equation. Thus the average score is based on Σ Ŷi/N for blacks subtracted from Σ Ŷi/N for whites.

21 Edelman, Murray, Politics as Symbolic Action: Mass Arousal and Quiescence (Chicago: Markham, 1971)Google Scholar; Grofman and Muller, “The Strange Case of Relative Gratification and Potential for Political Violence”; Feierabend et al., “Social Change”; Lipset, Seymour Martin, Political Man (Garden City: Anchor Books, 1963), esp., pp. 54–55 Google Scholar; Aiken, Michael et al., Economic Failure Alienation and Extremism (Ann Arbor: The University of Michigan Press, 1968)Google Scholar; Moore, Barrington Jr., “Revolution in America,” New York Review of Books, 12 (01 30, 1969), 6–12 Google Scholar.

22 Correlations of .25 in social science data are generally viewed as quite favorable. In this case, however, we have chosen to view .25 as a minimal level of acceptance because a criterion for the establishment of a valid substitute measure for different levels of analysis is being considered. Without engaging in a lengthy discourse on the philosophical issues involved in the level-of-analysis question, it is clear that such substitutions do involve an issue of validity, i.e., whether one measure is a valid substitute for another. Correlational requirements for measures of reliability and validity are far greater than for mere assertions of substantive importance. See for example, Kerlinger, Fred N., Foundations of Behavioral Research (New York: Holt, Rinehart and Winston, Inc., 1965), 444–462 Google Scholar.

23 We wish to thank Leslie Kish and Irene Hess of the sampling section of the University of Michigan's Institute for Social Research for explaining the sampling design to us and clarifying this issue.

24 The theorem is represented as follows: probability (∣f/n−p∣≥ϵ)→0 as N→∞; where f is the frequency of occurrence of event X among N trials, p is the probability of X, ϵ is some arbitrarily small positive number. It is generally assumed that good results are produced with N greater than 30. It also is at this point that the normality assumption of the Central Limit Theorem can be relaxed.

25 Ted Robert Gurr informs us (Correspondence 12/27/74) that although he agrees that the linkage between future expectations and current need fulfillment is a fundamental assumption of relative deprivation theory, the relationship may vary within the social structure. In the course of yet uncompleted research (with Raymond Duvall) Gun has theorized that individuals in the middle range of attained values (need fulfillment) appear to expect more gains in the future than those at the extremes of the distributions. If Gurr is correct, this would require some critical restatement of the underlying assumptions of relative deprivation theory. Some preliminary analyses that we have undertaken demonstrate that for blacks, those at the lowest end of the continuum have the highest expectations. For example, preliminary runs from SRC's Campbell-Schuman data set indicate that young (18–35) northern, black males are most dissatisfied with their current situation and most optimistic about the future. Needless to say, the issue Professor Gurr raised is an important one that could conceivably have a major impact on relative deprivation theory.

26 For a discussion of this position see Merton, Robert K., Social Theory and Social Structure (Glencoe, Ill.: The Free Press, 1957), pp. 5–11 Google Scholar.

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32 Sears, David O. and McConahay, John B., The Politics of Violence (Boston: Houghton Mifflin, 1973), pp. 90–91, footnote 1Google Scholar.

33 Gurr, Why Men Rebel.

34 Davies, “The J-curve.”

35 Feierabend et al., “Social Change.”

36 Ibid.

37 Grofman and Muller, “The Strange Case of Relative Gratification.”

38 Feierabend, et al., “Social Change,” p. 637 Google Scholar.

39 Grofman and Muller, p. 514.

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41 Moore, “Revolution in America.”

42 Aiken et al., Economic Failure, Alienation and Extremism.

43 Lipset, Political Man.

44 Conn, Norman, The Pursuit of the Millennium (New York: Harper Torchbooks, paperback, 1961), p. 319 Google Scholar.

45 Edelman, Politics as Symbolic Action.

46 Ibid., pp. 20–21.

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