Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-rdxmf Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-23T21:45:18.190Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Idiosyncratic Information and Vague Communication

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 September 2020

TAKAKAZU HONRYO Open the ORCID record for TAKAKAZU HONRYO [Opens in a new window]  and
MAKOTO YANO Open the ORCID record for MAKOTO YANO [Opens in a new window]
TAKAKAZU HONRYO*
Affiliation:
Doshisha University
MAKOTO YANO*
Affiliation:
Kyoto University
*
Takakazu Honryo, Associate Professor of Economics, Doshisha University, [email protected].
Makoto Yano, Chairman, RIETI, and Specially Appointed Professor, Kyoto University, [email protected].
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This study explores why, at critical moments, governments may withhold vital information from the public. We explain this phenomenon by what we call idiosyncratic events, or events independent of the information receiver’s state-contingent payoff functions. Idiosyncratic events often influence the receiver’s belief on the sender’s performance. If such events are correlated with the events determining the payoff functions, the sender may withhold information so as to improve his image. This result may be applied to the manipulation of information regarding a number of recent real-world phenomena, including the Fukushima nuclear accident in 2011 and the ongoing outbreak of COVID-19.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 115 , Issue 1 , February 2021 , pp. 165 - 178
Copyright
© The Author(s), 2020. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of the American Political Science Association

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Footnotes

We are grateful to Shozo Ota, whose survey and lecture on ochlocracy (Ota 2013) have greatly contributed to the basic design of this research, and anonymous reviewers and the editor of the APSR for constructive comments and advice. We are also grateful to Tadaaki Chigusa, Lisa Yano, Shintaro Miura, and Shigehiro Serizawa. Thomas Lustenberger and Enzo Rossi have kindly provided their central bank speech data. Financial support from Mannheim University and the JSPS (science grants #23000001, 16H02015, 19H01471, and 19K13658) are gratefully acknowledged.

References

Barry, John M. 2017. “How the Horrific 1918 Flu Spread across America.” Smithsonian Magazine, November.Google Scholar
Bartz, Diane. 2009. “U.S. Appeals Court Agrees Tobacco Companies Lied.” Reuters, May 23.Google Scholar
Benabou, Roland, and Laroque, Guy. 1992. “Using Privileged Information to Manipulate Markets: Insiders, Gurus, and Credibility.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107 (3): 921–958.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breslauer, W., George. 1982. Khrushchev and Brezhnev as Leaders. Winchester, MA: Allen and Unwin.Google Scholar
Burnham, David. 1976. “3 Engineers Quit G.E. Reactor Division and Volunteer in Antinuclear Movement.” New York Times, Feb. 3.Google Scholar
Cabinet Bureau. 2012. “Genshiryoku ni Kansuru Tokubetsu Yoron Chosa: A Summary.” https://survey.gov-online.go.jp/tokubetu/h21/h21-genshi.pdf#search=’%E5%86%85%E9%96%A3%E5%BA%9C+%E5%8E%9F%E7%99%BA%E3%81%AB%E5%AF%BE%E3%81%99%E3%82%8B%E6%84%8F%E8%AD%98%E8%AA%BF%E6%9F%BB+%EF%.Google Scholar
Collingson, Stephen. 2019. “New Biden Gaffe Raises Question of Truth in Trump’s Post-Fact Era.” CNN, August 30, 2019.Google Scholar
Cooke, Stephanie. 2011. “Nuclear Power is on Trial.” CNN, March 19, 2019.Google Scholar
Crawford, Vincent, and Sobel, Joel. 1982. “Strategic Information Transmission.” Econometrica 50 (6): 1431–1451.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dalton, Russell J. 2005. “The Social Transformation of Trust in Government.” International Review of Sociology 15 (1): 133–154.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dincer, Nergiz N., and Eichengreen, Barry. 2014. “Central Bank Transparency and Independence: Updates and New Measures.” International Journal of Central Banking 10 (1): 189–253.Google Scholar
Dorn, Sara. 2020. “China Officials Knew of Coronavirus in December, Ordered Cover-up, Report Says.” Reuters, February 29.Google Scholar
Dooley, Ben, Rich, Makoto, and Inoue, Makiko. 2020. “In Graying Japan, Many Are Vulnerable but Few Are Being Tested.” New York Times, February 29, updated March 2.Google Scholar
Dwyer, Paul. 2007. “Windscale: A Nuclear Disaster.” BBC News, October 5.Google Scholar
Dreher, Axel, Sturm, Jan-Egbert, and de Haan, Jacob. 2010. “When is Central Bank Governor Replaced? Evidence Based on a New Data Set.” Journal of Macroecomics 32 (3): 766–781.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fackler, Martin. 2007. “Japan Quake Raises Nuclear Fears.” New York Times, June 17.Google Scholar
Farrell, Joseph. 1993. “Meaning and Credibility in Cheap-Talk Games.” Games and Economic Behavior 5 (4): 514–531.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Funabashi, Yuichi. 2012a. Count Down, Melt Down, 1. Tokyo: Bungei Shunjyu.Google Scholar
Funabashi, Yuichi. 2012b. Count Down, Melt Down, 2. Tokyo: Bungei Shunjyu.Google Scholar
Fukushima Genpatsu Jiko Dokuritsu Kensho Iinkai (Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident). 2012. Chosa/Kensho Hokokusho (Investigation Report). Tokyo: Discover Twenty One.Google Scholar
Gates, Dominic. 2019. “Why Boeing’s Emergency Directions may Have Failed to Save 737 MAX.” The Seattle Times, April 4, updated April 8.Google Scholar
Grover, Joel, and Glasser, Matthew. 2020. “LA’s Nuclear Secret.” KNBC. https://data.nbcstations.com/national/KNBC/la-nuclear-secret/. Accessed March 16, 2020.Google Scholar
Hamby, Chris. 2020. “How Boeing’s Responsibility in a Deadly Crash ‘Got Buried.’” New York Times, January 20.Google Scholar
Hanage, William. 2020. “Testing for the Coronavirus Might Have Stopped It. Now It’s too Late.” Washington Post, March 6.Google Scholar
Higginbotham, Adam. 2019. Midnight in Chernobyl: The Untold Story of the World’s Greatest Nuclear Disaster. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Halloran, Richard. 1973. “Japanese Decide Pollution Case.” New York Times, March 21.Google Scholar
Holmes, Jack. 2016. “Trump’s Campaign Manager Offered Her Most Brilliant Defense Yet of Trump’s Lies.” Esquire, September 25.Google Scholar
Horowitz, Jason, Bubola, Emma, and Povoled, Elisabetta. 2020. “Italy, Pandemic’s New Epicenter, Has Lessons for the World.” New York Times, March 21.Google Scholar
Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident. 2014. The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Disaster: Investigating the Myth and Reality, ed. Bricker, Mindy Kay. New York: Routledge.Google Scholar
Investigation Committee on the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Station of Tokyo Electric Power Company (IICFNA). 2012. “Final Report on the Accident at Fukushima Nuclear Power Stations of Tokyo Electric Power Company-Recommendations.” July 23.Google Scholar
Iwai, Noriko, and Shishido, Kuniaki. 2015. “The Impact of the Great East Japan Earthquake and Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Accident on People’s Perception of Disaster Risks and Attitudes toward Nuclear Energy Policy.” Asian Journal of Public Opinion Research 2 (3): 172–195.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Japan Bar Association. 2007. “Genshiryoku Hatudensho no Seigyobou Daturaku Jiko Inpei Mondai ni Kansuru Ikensho” (Opinion Report on the Cover Up Issue on the Failure of Controls Bars at Nuclear Plants). Japan Bar Association, August 23.Google Scholar
Kamenica, Emir, and Gentzkow, Matthew. 2011. “Bayesian Persuasion.” American Economic Review 101 (6): 2590–2615.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kan, Naoto. 2014a. “No Nuclear Power is the Best Nuclear Power.” In Crisis without End: The Medical and Econological Consequences of the Fukushima Nuclear Catastrophe, ed. Caldicott, Helen, 17–20. New York: New Press.Google Scholar
Kan, Naoto. 2014b. “Mottomo Anzen na Enerugi Seisaku ha Genpatsu wo Nakusukoto,” In Owarinaki Kiki (Crisis Without End), ed. Helen Caldicotte, 25–9. Tokyo: Bukkuman-sha.Google Scholar
Keiger, Dale. 1983. “Born to Lose: The Truth about Zimmer.” Cincinnati Magazine, September, 16–12, 82–93.Google Scholar
Kitazawa, Koichi. 2012. “Fukushima Daiichi Genpatsu Jiko Dokuritsu Kensho Iinkai, Kitazawa Koichi Iincho Message, Fukona Jiko no Haikei wo Akiraka ni shi Anzen na Kuniwo Mezasu Kyokun ni” (Message from Koichi Kitazawa, Chairman of the Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident: Towards Building a Safe Nation by Revealing the Causes of the Unfortunate Accident). In Fukushima Genpatsu Jiko Dokuritsu Kensho Iinkai: Chosa-Kensho Hokokusho, 1–5. Tokyo: Discover Twenty One.Google Scholar
Kitazawa, Koichi. 2014. “Letter from Koichi Kitazawa, Chairman of the Independent Investigation Commission on the Fukushima Nuclear Accident.” In The Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Station Disaster: Investigating the Myth and Reality, ed. Bricker, Helen Kay, vii–xiii. London: Routledge.Google Scholar
Kőszegi, Botond. 2006. “Emotional Agency.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 121 (1): 121–156.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kono, Taro. 2011. “Madamada Inpai Sarete Imasu” (A Lot is Still Hidden). Kono Taro Official Website, Sept. 19.Google Scholar
Kyodo News. 2015. “IAEA report on Fukushima Slams Lack of Tsunami Preparedness despite Awareness of Threat.” Japan Times, May 25, 2011. Accessed March 11, 2020.Google Scholar
Levy, Gilat, and Razin, Ronny. 2007. “On the Limits of Communication in Multidimensional Cheap Talk: A Comment.” Econometrica 75 (3): 885–894.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, Robert. 2019. “Kyshtym Disaster.” Encyclopædia Britanica, September 22. https://www.britannica.com/event/Kyshtym-disaster. Accessed Feb 26, 2020.Google Scholar
Liptak, Kevin, LeBlanc, Paul, and Mang, Olanma. 2019. “Whistleblower Timeline: Team Trump Contracts and Ukraine.” CNN, updated November 14, 2019.Google Scholar
Lustenberger, Thomas, and Rossi, Enzo. 2020. “Central Bank Transparency and Communication Affect Financial and Macroeconomic Forecasts?” International Journal of Central Banking 16 (2): 153–200.Google Scholar
Medvedev, Zhores. 1976. “Two Decades of Dissidence.” New Scientist, November 4.Google Scholar
Milne, Roger, and Perera, Judith. 1989. “Soviet Union Comes Clean on Nuclear Blast.” New Scientist, August 5.Google Scholar
Morgan, John, and Stocken, Phillip C.. 2003. “An Analysis of Stock Recommendations.” Rand Journal of Economics 34 (1): 183–203.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, Stephan. 2001. “Political Correctness.” Journal of Political Economy 109 (2): 231–265.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Muccury, Justin. 2015. “Fukushima Operator ‘Knew of Need to Protect Against Tsunami but did not Act.’” The Guardian, June 18.Google Scholar
New York Times, 1979. “Karen Silkwood: From Activist to Protest Symbol.” New York Times, May 19.Google Scholar
NHK, 2014. “Merutodaun, File#5, Shirarezaru Tairyou Hoshutu.” NHK, Broadcast on December 21.Google Scholar
Onishi, Norimitsu, and Fackler, Martin. 2011. “Japan Held Nuclear Data, Leaving Evacuees in Peril.” New York Times, August 8.Google Scholar
Ota, Shozo. 2013. “Law and Disaster: Information Dissemination in Disaster: Ochlocratic Perception of People.” Paper presented at the East Asian Law and Society Conference March 23, 2013.Google Scholar
Ottaviani, Marco, and Sorensen, Peter N.. 2006. “Professional Advice.” Journal of Economic Theory 126 (1): 120–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pavesi, Fillipo, and Scotti, Massimo. 2014. “Experts, Conflicts of Interest, and Reputation for Ability.” International Journal of Economic Theory 10 (2): 219–233.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Posner, Richard. 2014. Economic Analysis of Law, Ninth Edition. Riverwood: Alpen Publishers.Google Scholar
Shear, Michael, Fink, Sheri, and Weiland, Noah. 2020. “Inside Trump Administration, Debate Raged Over What to Tell Public.” New York Times, March 7.Google Scholar
Shishikura, Masanobu, Sawai, Yuki, Okamura, Yukinobu, Komatsubara, Junko, Aung, Than T., Ishiyama, Tatsuya, Fujikawa, Osamu, and Fujino, Shigehiro. 2007. “Age and Distribution of Tsunami Deposit in the Ishinomaki Plain, Northeastern Japan.” Katsudanso Kojishin Kenkyu (Active Fault, Old Earthquake Research) 7: 11–46.Google Scholar
Sobel, Joel. 1985. “A Theory of Credibility.” Review of Economic Studies 52 (4): 557–573.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Jeremy. 1989. “Cheap Talk and the Fed: A Theory of Imprecise Policy Announcements.” American Economic Review 79 (1): 32–42.Google Scholar
Tabuchi, Hiroko, and Bradsher, Keith. 2011. “Lack of Date Heightens Japan’s Nuclear Crisis.” New York Times, April 8.Google Scholar
TEPCO. 2010. “Press Release, June 17, 2010.” TEPCO. http://www.tepco.co.jp/cc/press/10061703-j.html. Accessed February 27, 2020.Google Scholar
Trueman, Brett. 1994. “Analyst Forecasts and Herding Behavior.” Review of Financial Studies 7 (1): 97–124.Google Scholar
Ward, Alex. 2020 “How Spain’s coronavirus outbreak got so bad so fast — and how Spaniards are trying to cope.” Vox, March 20.Google Scholar
Yang, Yuan, Liu, Nian, Liu, Qianer, and Yu, Robin. 2020. “Hidden Infections Challenge China’s Claim Coronavirus is under Control.” Financial Times, March 27.Google Scholar
Yano, Makoto. 2009. “The Foundation of Market Quality Economics.” Japanese Economic Review 60 (1): 1–32.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.