Hostname: page-component-745bb68f8f-s22k5 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-01-07T16:18:21.891Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Fiscal Policy Outcomes and Electoral Accountability in American States

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 August 2014

Robert C. Lowry ,
James E. Alt  and
Karen E. Ferree
Robert C. Lowry
Affiliation:
Michigan State University
James E. Alt
Affiliation:
Harvard University
Karen E. Ferree
Affiliation:
Harvard University
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Clear fiscal policy effects appear in American state gubernatorial and legislative elections between 1968 and 1992, independent of the effects of incumbency, coattails, term limits, and macroeconomic conditions. The results show that accountability is generally stronger following a period of unified party control than under divided government. Voter reactions to taxes and spending relative to the state economy are conditional on expectations, which differ for each party. Net of these expectations, Republican gubernatorial candidates lose votes if their party is responsible for unanticipated increases in the size of the state budget; Democrats do not and, indeed, may be rewarded for small increases. Independent of this, the incumbent governor's party is punished in legislative elections for failing to maintain fiscal balance. Taken together, these results show how electoral accountability for fiscal policy outcomes is strong but highly contingent on a complex configuration of party labels, partisan control, expectations, and institutions.

Type
Articles
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 92 , Issue 4 , December 1998 , pp. 759 - 774
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 1998

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Advisory Commission on Intergovernmental Relations. 1987. Significant Features of Fiscal Federalism. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, and Perotti, Roberto. 1995. “The Political Economy of Budget Deficits.” IMF Staff Papers 42(March):1–31.10.2307/3867338CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alesina, Alberto, Roubini, Nouriel, and Cohen, Gerald. 1997. Political Cycles and the Macroeconomy. Cambridge: MIT Press.10.7551/mitpress/5437.001.0001CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alt, James E., and Lowry, Robert C.. 1994. “Divided Government and Budget Deficits: Evidence from the States.” American Political Science Review 88(December):811–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Christopher. 1995. “The Dynamics of Public Support for Coalition Governments.” Comparative Political Studies 28(October):350–83.10.1177/0010414095028003002CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Austen-Smith, David, and Banks, Jeffrey. 1989. “Electoral Accountability and Incumbency.” In Models of Strategic Choice in Politics, ed. Ordeshook, Peter. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press. Pp. 121–48.Google Scholar
Barro, Robert. 1974. “Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?” Journal of Political Economy 82(November/December):1095–117.10.1086/260266CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Baumer, Donald C., and Gold, Howard J.. 1995. “Party Images and the American Electorate.” American Politics Quarterly 23(January):33–61.10.1177/1532673X9502300102CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bayoumi, Tamim, Goldstein, Morris, and Woglom, Geoffrey. 1994. “Do Credit Markets Discipline Sovereign Borrowers? Evidence from U.S. States.” Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 27(November):1046–59.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Case, Anne. 1995a. “Does Electoral Accountability Affect Economic Policy Choices? Evidence from Gubernatorial Term Limits.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 110(August): 769–98.10.2307/2946699CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Besley, Timothy, and Case, Ann. 1995b. “Incumbent Behavior: Vote-Seeking, Tax-Setting, and Yardstick Competition.” American Economic Review 85(March):25–45.Google Scholar
Briffault, Richard. 1996. Balancing Acts: The Reality Behind State Balanced Budget Requirements. New York: Twentieth Century Fund.Google Scholar
Burden, Barry C., and Kimball, David C.. 1998. “A New Approach to the Study of Ticket-Splitting.” American Political Science Review 92(September):533–44.10.2307/2585479CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, Thomas M., and Wright, Gerald C.. 1998. “State and National Factors in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 42(July):994–1002.10.2307/2991738CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Chubb, John E. 1988. “Institutions, the Economy, and the Dynamics of State Elections.” American Political Science Review 82(March): 133–54.10.2307/1958062CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Council of State Governments. Various years. Book of the States. Lexington, KY: Council of State Governments.Google Scholar
Eichengreen, Barry, and Bayoumi, Tamim. 1994. “The Political Economy of Fiscal Restrictions: Implications for Europe from the United States.” European Economic Review 38(April):783–91.10.1016/0014-2921(94)90114-7CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ferejohn, John. 1986. “Incumbent Performance and Electoral Control.” Public Choice 50(1–3):5–25.10.1007/BF00124924CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, Morris. 1989. Congress, Keystone of the Washington Establishment. 2d ed. New Haven: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, Morris. 1996. Divided Government. 2d ed. Boston: Allyn and Bacon.Google Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, and King, Gary. 1994. “Enhancing Democracy Through Legislative Redistricting.” American Political Science Review 88(September):541–59.10.2307/2944794CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goldstein, Morris, and Woglom, Geoffrey. 1992. “Market-Based Fiscal Discipline in Monetary Unions: Evidence from the US Municipal Bond Market.” In Establishing a Central Bank: Issues in Europe and Lessons from the U.S., ed. Canzoneri, Matthew, Grilli, Vitorio, and Masson, Paul R.. New York: Cambridge University Press. Pp. 228–69.10.1017/CBO9780511895876.009CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research. 1992. State Legislative Election Returns in the United States, 1968–1989 [computer file] (Study #8907). 5th ICPSR ed. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [producer and distributor], 1992.Google Scholar
Jones, Mark P. 1995. Electoral Laws and the Survival of Presidential Democracies. Notre Dame, IN: University of Notre Dame Press.Google Scholar
Keech, William. 1995. Economic Politics: The Costs of Democracy. New York: Cambridge University Press.10.1017/CBO9780511609374CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kone, Susan L., and Winters, Richard F.. 1993. “Taxes and Voting: Electoral Retribution in the American States.” Journal of Politics 55(February):22–40.10.2307/2132226CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lowry, Robert C., and Alt, James E.. 1997. “A Visible Hand? Balanced Budget Laws, Imperfect Information, and Fiscal Policy in the States.” Michigan State University. Typescript.Google Scholar
Miller, Warren E., and the National Election Studies. 1998. American National Election Studies Cumulative Data File, 1948–1996 [computer file]. 9th ICPSR version. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan, Center for Political Studies [producer], 1998. Ann Arbor, MI: Inter-University Consortium for Political and Social Research [distributor], 1998.Google Scholar
Nannestad, Peter, and Paldam, Martin. 1994. “The VP-function: A Survey of the Literature on Vote and Popularity Functions after 25 Years.” Public Choice 79(3–4):213–45.10.1007/BF01047771CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Niemi, Richard G., Stanley, Harold W., and Vogel, Ronald J.. 1995. “State Economies and State Taxes: Do Voters Hold Governors Accountable?” American Journal of Political Science 39(November):936–57.10.2307/2111664CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Peltzman, Sam. 1987. “Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Elections.” American Economic Review 77(May):293–97.Google Scholar
Peltzman, Sam. 1992. “Voters as Fiscal Conservatives.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 107(May):329–61.10.2307/2118475CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Poterba, James M. 1996. “Budget Institutions and Fiscal Policy in the U.S. States.” American Economic Review 86(May):395–400.Google Scholar
Powell, G. Bingham, and Whitten, Guy. 1993. “A Cross-National Analysis of Economic Voting: Taking Account of the Political Context.” American Journal of Political Science 37(May):391–414.10.2307/2111378CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Scammon, Richard M., and McGillivray, Alice V., eds. 1995. America Votes 21. Washington, DC: CQ Press.Google Scholar
U.S. Department of Commerce. Various years. Statistical Abstract of the United States. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
U.S. General Accounting Office. 1993. “Balanced Budget Requirements: State Experiences and Implications for the Federal Government.” GAO/AFMD-93-58BR. Washington, DC: Government Printing Office.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.