Hostname: page-component-586b7cd67f-tf8b9 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-04T09:38:13.489Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Estimating the Electoral Effects of Voter Turnout

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  10 May 2010

THOMAS G. HANSFORD  and
BRAD T. GOMEZ
THOMAS G. HANSFORD*
Affiliation:
University of California, Merced
BRAD T. GOMEZ*
Affiliation:
Florida State University
*
Thomas G. Hansford is Associate Professor of Political Science, University of California–Merced, 5200 North Lake Road, Merced, CA 95343 ([email protected]).
Brad T. Gomez is Assistant Professor of Political Science, Florida State University, 536 Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306 ([email protected]).
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

This article examines the electoral consequences of variation in voter turnout in the United States. Existing scholarship focuses on the claim that high turnout benefits Democrats, but evidence supporting this conjecture is variable and controversial. Previous work, however, does not account for endogeneity between turnout and electoral choice, and thus, causal claims are questionable. Using election day rainfall as an instrumental variable for voter turnout, we are able to estimate the effect of variation in turnout due to across-the-board changes in the utility of voting. We re-examine the Partisan Effects and Two-Effects Hypotheses, provide an empirical test of an Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis, and propose a Volatility Hypothesis, which posits that high turnout produces less predictable electoral outcomes. Using county-level data from the 1948–2000 presidential elections, we find support for each hypothesis. Failing to address the endogeneity problem would lead researchers to incorrectly reject all but the Anti-Incumbent Hypothesis. The effect of variation in turnout on electoral outcomes appears quite meaningful. Although election-specific factors other than turnout have the greatest influence on who wins an election, variation in turnout significantly affects vote shares at the county, national, and Electoral College levels.

Type
Research Article
Information
American Political Science Review , Volume 104 , Issue 2 , May 2010 , pp. 268 - 288
Copyright
Copyright © American Political Science Association 2010

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

REFERENCES

Arceneaux, Kevin, and Nickerson, David W.. 2009. “Who Is Mobilized to Vote? A Re-analysis of 11 Field Experiments.” American Journal of Political Science 53 (January): 1–16.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berinsky, Adam J. 2005. “The Perverse Consequences of Electoral Reform in the United States.” American Politics Research 33 (July): 471–91.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brambor, Thomas, Clark, William Roberts, and Golder, Matt. 2006. “Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses.” Political Analysis 14 (Winter): 63–82.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burnham, Walter Dean. 1965. “The Changing Shape of the American Political Universe.” American Political Science Review 59 (March): 7–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus. 1966. “Surge and Decline: A Study of Electoral Change.” Public Opinion Quarterly 24 (Autumn): 397–418.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, Angus, Converse, Philip E., Miller, Warren E., and Stokes, Donald E.. 1960. The American Voter. New York: John Wiley & Sons.Google Scholar
Childs, Colin. 2004. “Interpolating Surfaces in ArcGIS Spatial Analyst.” ArcUser. Redlands, CA: ESRI Press.Google Scholar
Citrin, Jack, Schickler, Eric, and Sides, John. 2003. “What if Everyone Voted? Simulating the Impact of Increased Turnout in Senate Elections.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (January): 75–90.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cox, Gary W. 1988. “Closeness and Turnout: A Methodological Note.” Journal of Politics 50 (August): 768–75.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Davidson, Russell, and MacKinnon, James G.. 1993. Estimation and Inference in Econometrics. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
DeNardo, James. 1980. “Turnout and the Vote: The Joke's on the Democrats.” American Political Science Review 74 (June): 406–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
DeNardo, James. 1986. “Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?” American Political Science Review 80 (December): 1291–304.Google Scholar
Downs, Anthony. 1957. An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Dudley, Robert L., and Rapoport, Ronald B.. 1989. “Vice-Presidential Candidates and the Home State Advantage: Playing Second Banana at Home and on the Road.” American Journal of Political Science 33 (May): 537–40.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dunning, Thad. 2008. “Model Specification in Instrumental-Variables Regression.” Political Analysis 16 (Summer): 290–302.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, Robert S. 1995. “State Turnout and Presidential Voting: A Closer Look.” American Politics Quarterly 23 (October): 387–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gabel, Matthew, and Scheve, Kenneth. 2007. “Estimating the Effect of Elite Communications on Public Opinion Using Instrumental Variables.” American Journal of Political Science 51 (October): 1013–28.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gelman, Andrew, Park, David, Shor, Boris, Bafumi, Joseph, and Cortina, Jeronimo. 2008. Red State, Blue State, Rich State, Poor State: Why Americans Vote the Way They Do. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Gerber, Alan S., and Green, Donald P.. 2000. “The Effects of Personal Canvassing, Telephone Calls, and Direct Mail on Voter Turnout: A Field Experiment.” American Political Science Review 94 (September): 653–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Geys, Benny. 2006. “Explaining Voter Turnout: A Review of Aggregate-Level Research.” Electoral Studies 25 (December): 637–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gomez, Brad T., Hansford, Thomas G., and Krause, George A.. 2007. “The Republicans Should Pray for Rain: Weather, Turnout, and Voting in U.S. Presidential Elections.” Journal of Politics 69 (August): 649–63.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grofman, Bernard, Owen, Guillermo, and Collet, Christian. 1999. “Rethinking the Partisan Effects of Higher Turnout: So What's the Question?” Public Choice 99 (June): 357–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hajnal, Zoltan, and Trounstine, Jessica. 2005. “Where Turnout Matters: The Consequences of Uneven Turnout in City Politics.” Journal of Politics 67 (May): 515–35.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hetherington, Marc J. 1999. “The Effect of Political Trust on the Presidential Vote, 1968–96.” American Political Science Review 93 (June): 311–26.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Highton, Benjamin, and Wolfinger, Raymond E.. 2001. “The Political Implications of Higher Turnout.” British Journal of Political Science 31 (January): 179–223.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holbrook, Thomas M. 1991. “Presidential Elections in Space and Time.” American Journal of Political Science 35 (February): 91–109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jacobson, Gary C. 2004. The Politics of Congressional Elections. 6th ed. New York: Longman.Google Scholar
Kaufman, Karen M., Petrocik, John R., and Shaw, Daron R.. 2008. Unconventional Wisdom: Facts and Myths about American Voters. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleibergen, Frank, and Paap, Richard. 2006. “Generalized Reduced Rank Tests Using the Singular Value Decomposition.” Journal of Econometrics 133 (July): 97–126.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leighley, Jan E., and Nagler, Jonathan. 1992. “Socioeconomic Class Bias in Turnout, 1964–1988: The Voters Remain the Same.” American Political Science Review 86 (September): 725–36.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levi, Margaret, and Stoker, Laura. 2000. “Political Trust and Trustworthiness.” Annual Review of Political Science 3 (June): 475–507.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis-Beck, Michael S., and Rice, Tom W.. 1983. “Localism in Presidential Elections: The Home State Advantage.” American Journal of Political Science 27 (August): 548–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martin, Paul S. 2003. “Voting's Rewards: Voter Turnout, Attentive Publics, and Congressional Allocation of Federal Money.” American Journal of Political Science 47 (January): 110–27.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Martinez, Michael D., and Gill, Jeff. 2005. “The Effects of Turnout on Partisan Outcomes in U.S. Presidential Elections 1960–2000.” Journal of Politics 67 (November): 1248–74.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Miguel, Edward, Satyanath, Shanker, and Sergenti, Ernest. 2004. “Economic Shocks and Civil Conflict.” Journal of Political Economy 112 (August): 725–53.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mooney, Christopher Z., and Duval, Robert D.. 1993. Bootstrapping. Beverly Hills, CA: Sage.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nagel, Jack H., and McNulty, John E.. 1996. “Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Senatorial and Gubernatorial Elections.” American Political Science Review 90 (December): 780–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nagel, Jack H., and McNulty, John E.. 2000. “Partisan Effects of Voter Turnout in Presidential Elections.” American Politics Quarterly 28 (July): 408–29.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicholson, Stephen P., and Miller, Ross A.. 1997. “Prior Beliefs and Voter Turnout in the 1986 and 1988 Congressional Elections.” Political Research Quarterly 50 (March): 199–213.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pacek, Alexander, and Radcliff, Benjamin. 1995. “Turnout and the Vote for Left-of-Centre Parties: A Cross-National Analysis.” British Journal of Political Science 25 (January): 137–43.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pagan, Adrian. 1984. “Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors.” International Economic Review 25 (February): 221–47.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Petrocik, John R. 1981. “Voter Turnout and Electoral Oscillation.” American Politics Quarterly 9 (April): 161–80.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Radcliff, Benjamin. 1994. “Turnout and the Democratic Vote.” American Politics Quarterly 22 (July): 259–76.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Hansen, John Mark. 1993. Mobilization, Participation, and Democracy in America. New York: Macmillan.Google Scholar
Rosenstone, Steven J., and Wolfinger, Raymond E.. 1978. “The Effect of Registration Laws on Voter Turnout.” American Political Science Review 72 (March): 22–45.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schaffer, Mark E. 2007. “xtivreg2: Stata Module to Perform Extended IV/2SLS, GMM and AC/HAC, LIML and k-Class Regression for Panel Data Models.” http://ideas.repec.org/c/boc/bocode/s456501.html (accessed March 16, 2010).Google Scholar
Staiger, Douglas, and Stock, James H.. 1997. “Instrumental Variables Regression with Weak Instruments.” Econometrica 65 (May): 557–86.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stein, Michael L. 1999. Interpolation of Spatial Data: Some Theory for Kriging. New York: Springer.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teixeira, Ruy. 1992. The Disappearing American Voter. Brookings Institution Press. Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Tucker, Harvey J., and Vedlitz, Arnold. 1986. “Does Heavy Turnout Help Democrats in Presidential Elections?” American Political Science Review 80 (December): 1291–304.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wolfinger, Raymond E., and Rosenstone, Stephen J.. 1980. Who Votes? New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Wooldridge, Jeffrey M. 2002. Econometric Analysis of Cross Section and Panel Data. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Submit a response

Comments

No Comments have been published for this article.