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Environment and Health: Vital Intersection or Contested Territory?
Published online by Cambridge University Press: 06 January 2021
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The effects of environmental exposure, broadly defined as any exposure from outside the body, on human health are unquestionably the most important determinants of public health. While important genetic determinants of disease exert their effects irrespective of exposure from outside the body, these do not contribute as much to the overall public health burden of disease as factors such as tobacco smoke, poor quality water, inadequate or contaminated food, occupational exposures to dusts and chemicals, motor vehicle accidents, interpersonal violence, air pollution, and other factors external to the body. In many cases, genetic predisposition and environmental exposures combined cause disease in an individual, so it may be impossible to separate out individual biological contributions from various external factors. Nevertheless, it is widely understood that public health concerns populations and communities, and that environmental determinants of health have been paramount throughout human history.
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References
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82 The historical context of these guidelines is of interest: Sir Bradford Hill proposed his viewpoints in 1965, well before the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) or U.S. agencies, such as the Environmental Protection Agency or Occupational Safety and Health Administration, had begun promulgating lists and categories of carcinogens. Further, Dr. Bradford Hill's own commentary on the use of his guidelines was most instructive; they are not meant to replace common sense and judgment but to aid them. Hill's viewpoints are further discussed in Part IV.B. of this Article.
83 JOHN STUART MILL, SYSTEM OF LOGIC: RATIOCINATIVE AND INDUCTIVE (Longman, Green, & Co. 1906).
84 Id. at 373-426.
85 Id.
86 Cf. id. at 437-47.
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91 Id. at 187.
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98 Id.
99 MILL, supra note 83, at 256.
100 See generally ANN ASCHENGRAU & GEORGE R. SEAGE, ESSENTIALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY IN PUBLIC HEALTH (2003) (discussing the foundations of epidemiology in public health).
101 Id.
102 Id.
103 Id.
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113 See supra notes 105-07 and accompanying text.
114 Note that the analysis works just as well in a case where there is no increased disease.
115 See U.S. ENVIRONMENTAL PROTECTION AGENCY, DIOXIN REASSESSMENT REVIEW, sec. 4.5.1, at http://www.epa.gov/sab/pdf/ec95021.pdf (Sept. 29, 1995).
116 See id.
117 See id.
118 See, e.g., Bailey et al., supra note 87.
119 Id.
120 Id.
121 Id.
122 Id.
123 Epidemiologists often find that there are unanticipated problems or uncertainties in conducting epidemiologic studies, and that other epidemiologists usually are quick to point these out. As with most things, designing an informative study is difficult. Criticizing one is easy.
124 VICTOR J. SHOENBACH & WAYNE D. ROSAMOND, UNDERSTANDING THE FUNDAMENTALS OF EPIDEMIOLOGY: AN EVOLVING TEXT 13 (2000).
125 Id.
126 This is a deterministic view of disease causation. One could also take a probabilistic view, in which case scientists would have to discuss sample error from some assumed super-population of identical study settings. This alternative view does not affect any of the points made.
127 Id. at 49-50.
128 Id. at 50.
129 David, Egilman et al., Proving Causation: The Use and Abuse of Medical and Scientific Evidence Inside the CourtroomAn Epidemiologist's Critique of the Judicial Interpretation of the Daubert Ruling, 58 FOOD DRUG L.J. 223, 237 (2003)Google Scholar (Significance testing is a statistical technique used for evaluating the role of chance as a possible explanation for an observed association between cause and effect.) (emphasis added).
130 See id.
131 Troyen, A. Brennan, Causal Chains and Statistical Links: The Role of Scientific Uncertainty in Hazardous-Substance Litigation, 73 CORNELL L. REV. 469, 505 (1988)Google Scholar. The original source of the 5% criterion is lost in time. It apparently came from the original applications of statistical methods to agricultural experiments and expressed a cost-benefit statement about the expense of redoing a large trial involving a whole growing season and plots of various seeds and fertilizers. Its use for public health purposes might thus be questioned. It is interesting to note that in other sciences, notably, physics, another common criterion for statistical significance is not 5% but 10%. In any event, virtually every elementary statistics text warns the student of the highly arbitrary nature of the figure.
132 Barbara Frederick, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Method or Madness?, 27 CONN. L. REV. 237, 241 n.27 (1994).
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136 Brief of Amici Curiae Kenneth Rothman et al. for Appellate, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993) (No. 92-102).
137 Id.
138 Egilman et al., supra note 129, at 237.
139 See Stephen, E. Fienberg et al., Understanding and Evaluating Statistical Evidence in Litigation, 36 JURMETRICS J. 1, 21-23 (1995)Google Scholar.
140 Brief of Amici Curiae Kenneth Rothman et al. for Appellate, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993) (No. 92-102) (quoting Kenneth Rothman, Significance Questing, 105 ANNALS INTERNAL MED. 445, 445-46 (1986)) (citations omitted). According to the Rothman et al. amicus brief:
A better approach to evaluating the error in scientific measurement is the use of confidence intervals. A confidence interval is a range of possible values for a parameter that is consistent with the observed data within specified limits. The process of calculating a confidence interval within the chosen limits is know as interval estimation.
An important advantage of interval estimation is that it: do[es] not require irrelevant null hypothesis to be set up nor [does it] force a decision about significance to be madethe estimates can be presented and evaluated by statistical and other criteria, by the researcher or the reader. In addition the estimates of one investigation can be compared with others. While it is often the case that different measurements or methods of investigation or theoretical approaches lead to different results, this is not a disadvantage; these differences reflect important theoretical differences about the meaning of the research and the conclusions to be drawn from it. And it is precisely those differences which are obscured by simply reporting the significance level of the results.
Id. (quoting L. Atkins & D. Jarrett, The Significance of Significance Tests, in DEMYSTIFYING SOCIAL STATISTICS (J. Irvine & I. Miles eds., 1979)).
141 A detailed example showing how results can be of public health significance but not statistical significance can be found in Ozonoff, supra note 104.
142 For example, a difference of one-eighth inch in height between East Coast children and West Coast children will be statistically significant if very large numbers of children on both coasts are measured.
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144 Id.
145 See Fienberg et al., supra note 139, at 14.
146 A good example is the Fisher Exact Test, commonly used for small tables frequently encountered in environmental epidemiology. Certain well known statistical programs even force the user to employ this test if several table cells contain expected values of less than five, even though it has been known for years that the test is inappropriate. Cf. Ralph, B. DAgostino et al., The Appropriateness of Some Common Procedures for Testing the Equality of Two Independent Binomial Populations, 42 AM. STATISTICIAN 198 (1988)Google Scholar.
147 MICHAEL OAKES, STATISTICAL INFERENCE: A COMMENTARY FOR THE SOCIAL AND BEHAVIOURAL SCIENCES vii-viii (1986). Oakes then goes on to quote a review by Dusoir of a statistics text in a technical journal:
A more fundamental criticism is that the book, as almost all other elementary statistics texts, presents statistics as if it were a body of coherent technical knowledge, like the principles of oscilloscope operation. In fact statistics is a collection of warring factions, with deep disagreements over fundamentals, and it seems dishonest not to point this out.
Id. at viii.
148 As expressed by the epidemiologist Kenneth Rothman in his Daubert amicus brief, The result of using significance testing as a criterion for decision making is that the focus is changed from the information presented by the observations themselves to conjecture about the role chance could have played in bringing about those observations. Brief of Amici Curiae Kenneth Rothman et al. for Appellate, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993) (No. 92-102) (emphasis in original). Kenneth Rothman is the author of a standard text, KENNETH ROTHMAN & SANDER GREENLAND, MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY (2d ed. 1997), and the former Editor-in-Chief of the journal EPIDEMIOLOGY.
149 See REFERENCE MANUAL ON SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE 157 (2000) (causation is a judgment issue for epidemiologists and others interpreting the epidemiological data.); see also Kenneth Rothman & Sander Greenland, Causation and Causal Inference, in MODERN EPIDEMIOLOGY 7 (Kenneth Rothman & Sander Greenland eds., 2d ed. 1998). As professors Rothman and Greenland explain in their textbook:
Perhaps the most important common thread that emerges from the debated philosophies [of scientific causation] is Hume's legacy that proof is impossible in empiric science. This simple fact is especially important to epidemiologists, who often face the criticism that proof is impossible in epidemiology, with the implication that it is possible in other scientific disciplines. Such criticism may stem from a view that experiments are the definitive source of scientific knowledge. Such a view is mistaken . Even the most careful and detailed mechanistic dissection of individual events cannot provide more than associations .
Id. at 22.
150 See Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 43 F.3d 1311, 1320 (9th Cir. 1995). Judge Kosinski, in the Daubert remand, writes of the plaintiff's case that it does not attempt to show causation directly; instead, they rely on experts who present circumstantial proof of causation. Id. Of course there is no such thing as a direct proof of causation.
151 Professors Rothman and Greenland are not alone in their view that judgmentnot a checklistis a scientist's most useful tool in inferring causation. Indeed, that perspective is shared by a number of the nation's leading epidemiologists and other scientists, historians of science, and philosophers of science. Thus, an amicus brief tendered to the U.S. Supreme Court in the Daubert case by Harvard professors Stephen Jay Gould (Zoology, Geology, and History of Science, now deceased), Gerald Holton (Physics and History of Science), Everett Mendelsohn (History of Science), and Kathleen Joy Propert (Biostatistics), Columbia University professor Ronald Bayer (Sociomedical Sciences), and NYU professor Dorothy Nelkin (Sociology and Law) explained that [c]onclusiveness in inferring causalityin epidemiology as with the study of all free-living human beingsis a desire more often than an accomplishment. Brief of Amici Curiae Ronald Bayer et al. for Appellate, Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993) (No. 92-102) (quoting Mervyn Susser, Rules for Inference in Epidemiology, 6 REGULATORY TOXICOLOGY & PHARMACOLOGY 116, 127 (1986)). These scholars went on to observe that [a]s a consequence, those who seek in science the immutable truth they find lacking in the law are apt to be disappointed. Id. One notable similarity [between law and epidemiology] is the dependence of both fields upon subjective judgments . In the end, a quality which lawyers should understandjudiciousnessmatters more than any. Scientists use both deductive and inductive inference to sustain the momentum of a continuing process of research . The courts of law, and the courts of application, use inference to reach decisions about what action to take. Those decisions cannot rest on certitudes, most especially when population risks are converted into individual risks. Id. (quoting Susser, supra) (emphasis added).
152 EPA, supra note 115.
153 Id.
154 Of these, the most important are non-differential exposure misclassification and small sample size. See David Ozonoff, Assessing the Effects of Exposure Misclassification in Hazardous Waste Studies (1994) (paper presented at the annual meeting of the International Society of Environmental Epidemiology, Nov. 1994) (on file with author); see also David, Ozonoff et al., Health Problems Reported by Residents of a Neighborhood Contaminated by a Hazardous Waste Facility, 11 AM. J. INDUS. MED. 581 (1987)Google Scholar.
155 NATIONAL RESEARCH COUNCIL, ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY, VOLUME 2: USE OF THE GRAY LITERATURE AND OTHER DATA IN ENVIRONMENTAL EPIDEMIOLOGY 22 (1997).
156 Id.
157 DAUBERT: THE MOST INFLUENTIAL SUPREME COURT RULING YOUVE NEVER HEARD OF (June 2003), at http://defendingscience.org.
158 Id.
159 Id.
160 If 1,000 cases appear naturally and another 1,000 are due to exposure (the result of a RR = 2.0), then of every 2,000 cases only 1,000 or 50% would seem to be a result of the exposure.
161 See Fienberg et al., supra note 139.
162 Bailey et al., supra note 87.
163 Ralph Metzger, Epidemiology Can Be Your Friend: Using Epidemiology in the Courtroom, in ATLA ANNUAL CONVENTION REFERENCE MATERIALS, VOLUME 2, 2815 (2001).
164 See Sander, Greenland, Relation of Probability of Causation to Relative Risk and Doubling Dose: A Methodologic Error That Has Become a Social Problem, 89 AM. J. PUB. HEALTH 1166 (1999)Google Scholar; Sander, Greenland & James, M. Robins, Epidemiology, Justice and the Probability of Causation, 40 JURIMETRICS J. 321 (2000)Google Scholar.
165 For an illuminating comment, see Greenland, supra note 164. For a more extended discussion, see Greenland & Robins, supra note 164.
166 See, e.g., Marder v. G.D. Searle & Co., 630 F. Supp. 1087, 1092-93 (D. Md. 1986).
167 See Fienberg et al., supra note 139.
168 See DeLuca v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 922 F.2d 941 (3d Cir. 1990); State v. Sercey, 825 So.2d 959 (Fla. Dist. Ct. App. 2002).
169 See ERIC D. GREEN ET AL., PROBLEMS, CASES, AND MATERIALS ON EVIDENCE 753-943 (3d ed. 2000).
170 Id.
171 It should be noted here that high-dose animal studies are generally accepted by scientists and regulators. Cf. J. E., Huff et al., Carcinogenesis Studies: Results of 398 Experiments on 104 Chemicals from the U.S. National Toxicology Program, 534 ANNALS N.Y. ACAD. SCI. 1 (1988)Google Scholar.
172 External and internal validity are thus analogous to the reliability and fit criteria of the Daubert Court. See Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579, 590-91 (1993).
173 See Robert, R. Kuehn, Suppression of Environmental Science, 30 AM. J.L. & MED. 333 (2004)Google Scholar.
174 See infra Parts IV.A-B.
175 See, e.g., Kumho Tire Co., Ltd. v. Carmichael, 526 U.S. 137 (1999); Gen. Elec. Co. v. Joiner, 522 U.S. 136 (1997); Daubert v. Merrell Dow Pharm., Inc., 509 U.S. 579 (1993); Anderson v. W.R. Grace & Co., 628 F. Supp. 1219 (D. Mass. 1986).
176 See, e.g., Jennifer, L. Bush, The Federal Lead Poisoning Prevention Program: Inadequate Guidance for an Expeditious Solution, 23 B.C. ENVTL. AFF. L. REV. 645 (1996)Google Scholar; Robert, A. Levy, The New Business of Government Sponsored Litigation, 9 KAN J. L. & PUB. POLY 592 (1994)Google Scholar; Jane, Schukoske, The Evolving Paradigm of Laws on Lead-Based Paint, 45 S.C. L. REV. 611 (1994)Google Scholar.
177 AGENCY FOR TOXIC SUBSTANCES AND DISEASE REGISTRY, CAC, CASE STUDIES IN ENVIRONMENTAL MEDICINE: LEAD TOXICITY, at http://www.atsdr.cdc.gov/HEC/CSEM/lead/index.html (last updated Aug. 20, 2003); see also CDC PREVENTING LEAD POISONING, supra note 23 (link to Figures).
178 J.L., Annest et al., Chronological Trend in Blood Lead Levels Between 1976 and 1980, 308 NEW ENG. J. MED. 1373 (1983)Google Scholar.
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