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Research on improvement and optimisation of modelling method of China’s civil aircraft market demand forecast model

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 April 2021

Y. Zhang ,
K. Cao Open the ORCID record for K. Cao [Opens in a new window]  and
W. Dong
Y. Zhang*
Affiliation:
School of Aviation Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXianChina
K. Cao*
Affiliation:
School of Aviation Northwestern Polytechnical UniversityXianChina
W. Dong*
Affiliation:
China COMAC Shanghai Aircraft Design and ResearchShanghaiChina
*
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
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Abstract

With the development of China’s economy, China’s aviation market has expanded, and related industries have also developed rapidly. For the long-term development of the industry, many countries and enterprises began to make demand forecasts with different levels for the product market. The same is true for China’s civil aircraft-related industries. There are a variety of predictive models, but not all of them are appropriate for the prediction of civil aircraft market demand. This paper introduces a variety of modelling methods for forecasting models, including time series forecasting models and causal analysis forecasting models. The contribution of our work is the adoption of a new coefficient determination method to establish a variable-weight combination forecasting model, which greatly improves the forecasting accuracy. In addition, we also propose a new and more stable prediction model, the chain prediction model. Simulation prediction is carried out for each model in this work. Through the analysis and comparison of the prediction results, we conclude that the prediction effects of the variable weight combination prediction model and the chain prediction model are superior to those of other single prediction models. The chain prediction model in particular has better performance in medium- and long-term prediction, compared with the other prediction models. Finally, the model is applied to predict the demand of Chinese civil aircraft in the next 20 years, which confirms that the Chinese civil aircraft market will expand in the future.

Keywords

market forecastcombined forecasting modelchain prediction modelcivil aircraft market
Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 125 , Issue 1289 , July 2021 , pp. 1157 - 1191
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Copyright
© The Author(s), 2021. Published by Cambridge University Press on behalf of Royal Aeronautical Society

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