Cost estimating is all too frequently thought of as a necessary but dull and uninspiring task better performed by persons who are either incapable of, or uninterested in, wrestling with the important and exciting issues of the day. Even with the current concern for the economic implications of choice, cost estimating is only beginning to be accorded its rightful place in the decision making process. The reasons for this are many, but the most significant is probably a general lack of awareness of the potential benefits that are to be realised. One place where cost estimating has, in recent years, been allowed to play its proper role is in military long-range planning, and the rewards have been great. The general philosophy of the military planner and the concepts and methods of the cost estimator that have permitted this to happen are discussed. In the second part of the paper, an example of a cost analysis in support of a military planning problem is presented. The example points up the fact that cost estimating can be an intellectually stimulating activity worthy of the application of the best analytical skills available, and that it can provide useful answers to difficult and important questions even when uncertainty is great and quantification is difficult. Even though the discussion in ‘this paper is based on a military long-range planning application, the concepts, methods and techniques that have made success possible there, have much more general implications. Believing this, it is is hoped that this paper will serve to further the awareness of many, and stimulate some, to seek out the important benefits to be derived from a less traditional approach to cost estimating.
