Cost effective transportation and hightechnology

Summary

This paper discusses the cost of high technology and the benefits to commercial air transport. The manufacturer's dilemma today is that whereas one could pay a 16% price premium to obtain a 10% reduction in fuel cost in the late 1970s, in 1985 that price premium has diminished to only 2½/2% to achieve a 10% fuel saving. Consequently, we must obtain the benefits of high technology at an extremely low cost.

Four areas are discussed in some depth: Aerodynamics, including the effects of computational fluid dynamics, wing design, and laminar flow. Structures, including the effects of new materials, both metallic and non-metallic, and the automated tools necessary to build the non-metallic structure. Avionics, including both fly-by-wire and fly-by-light, and the improvements due to high speed digital computers as well as flat panel flight deck displays. Propulsion systems, including the effects of high bypass ratio, high pressure ratio turbofan engines, and single and counterrotation turbopropellers. The final result is an integration of these four areas of technology into a composition transport aircraft and the resulting performance.

We all tend to think of the aviation industry as exciting high technology and eagerly look forward to the next new developments. Unfortunately, the air transport industry has just been through a most agonising depression on a worldwide basis, and their primary thoughts are, 'How can we keep those manufacturers with their new toys at bay until we can recover?' Certainly the manufacturers respect this view because we, for one, have just spent several billions to roll out three new products, and high technology has been expensive. To illustrate, if we compare the cost elements of a 727 of 1970 with one of 1980 (Fig. 1), we see the 68% increase in fuel cost (Fig. 2) that certainly drove the designs of the 757 and 767 airplanes. But if we look further at the cost element breakdown for a 1985 757, we see the large reduction in cash cost due to the high efficiency of its Rolls-Royce engine and the technology of its new wing, structures, and systems. What we often fail to perceive properly is the very large change due to the ownership cost of this high technology aircraft.