Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-m6dg7 Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-02T23:24:48.762Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
  • English
  • Français

Aviation and climate change: confronting the challenge

Part of: Sustainable Aerospace

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 February 2016

A. Bows
A. Bows*
Affiliation:
[email protected], Sustainable Consumption Institute, School of Earth Atmospheric and Environmental Sciences, University of Manchester, Manchester, UK
Get access Rights & Permissions [Opens in a new window]

Abstract

Each year greenhouse gas emissions remain high the climate mitigation and adaptation challenges grow. The economic downturn was already in train in 2008, yet concentrations of CO2 increased unabated. Without concerted effort across all sectors there will be little chance of avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’ and the aviation sector has a clear role to play. Current and forthcoming technologies, operational practices and behavioural change offer widespread opportunities for other sectors to mitigate their CO2 emissions in absolute terms, but as they do so, aviation will become an increasingly important player. By comparing a range of global cross-sector emission scenarios with existing aviation projections, this paper illustrates the importance of understanding the future context with regard to other sectors when assessing the aviation industry’s potential impact. Given growth projections for aviation and the relatively slow pace of technological change, aviation’s proportion of 2050 global CO2 emissions is low only in those global cross-sector emission scenarios where there is a high probability of ‘dangerous climate change’. For a ‘reasonable’ (>50%) chance of avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’, the most technologically radical scenarios for aviation make up 15% of global CO2 in 2050 and conventional scenarios exceed the carbon budget entirely. Only by recognising that aviation’s currently projected emissions are incompatible with avoiding ‘dangerous climate change’ can the industry fully grasp the challenge of accelerating innovation and managing demand to deliver a more sustainable route to 2050 and beyond.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 114 , Issue 1158 , August 2010 , pp. 459 - 468
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 2010 

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

1. IPCC, Climate Change 2007: the physical science basis, Report of Working Group 1 to the Fourth Assessment report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007.Google Scholar
2. Canadell, P., Lequere, C., Raupach, M.R., Ciais, P., Conway, T.J., Field, C.B. and Houghton, S., Global carbon sources and sinks: 2007 update, Climate Change, Global Risks, Challenges and Decisions, International Scientific Congress on Climate Change, Copenhagen, Denmark, 2009.Google Scholar
3. Raupach, M.R., Marland, G., Ciais, P., Le Quere, C., Canadell, J.G., Klepper, G. and Field, C.B., Global and regional drivers of accelerating CO2 emissions, PNAS, 2007, 104, (24), pp 10288–10293.Google Scholar
4. Edenhofer, O., Stern, N., Bauer, N., Bowen, A., Brunner, S., Flachsland, C. and Jakob, M., Towards a global green recovery: recommendations for immediate G20 action, The German Foreign Office, 2009.Google Scholar
5. Randles, S. and Bows, A., Aviation, emissions and the climate change debate, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2009, 21, (1), pp 1 – 16.Google Scholar
6. Aviation, Strategy towards sustainable development of UK aviation, Sustainable Aviation, 2005.Google Scholar
7. Greener by Design, Air Travel – Greener by Design Annual Report 2006-2007, Royal Aeronautical Society, 2007.Google Scholar
8. easyJet How to green Europe’s skies, (cited 20 April), Available from: www.easyjet.com/EN/About/Information/green_skies_europe.html, 2007.Google Scholar
9. Bows, A., Anderson, K. and Mander, S., Aviation in turbulent times, Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2009, 21, (1), pp 17–37.Google Scholar
10. Bows, A., Randles, S., Mander, S. and Anderson, K., Aviation emissions in the context of climate change: a consumption-production approach, Tyndall Centre Manchester, UK. 2008.Google Scholar
11. DTI, Our energy future – creating a low carbon economy, Energy White Paper, Department of Trade and Industry, Stationery Office, London, UK. 2003.Google Scholar
12. DfT, The future of air transport, Aviation White Paper, Department for Transport, HMSO, London, UK. 2004.Google Scholar
13. Bows, A. and Anderson, K.L., Policy clash: Can projected aviation growth be reconciled with the UK Government’s 60% carbon-reduction target?, Transport Policy, 2007, 14, (2), pp 103–110.Google Scholar
14. DfT, Aviation and global warming, Department for Transport, The Stationery Office, London, UK. 2004.Google Scholar
15. Committee on Climate Change, Building a low-carbon economy – The UK’s contribution to tackling climate change, The Committee on Climate Change, The Stationery Office, Norwich, UK. 2008.Google Scholar
16. EU, Written statement of reservation on behalf of the member states of the European Community (EC) and the other states members of the European Civil Aviation (ECAC) (made at the 36th Assembly of the International Civil Aviation Organization in Montreal, 18-28 September 2007).Google Scholar
17. Bows, A. and Anderson, K., A bottom-up analysis of including aviation within the EU’s Emissions Trading Scheme, Tyndall Centre Working Paper, 126, 2008.Google Scholar
18. Scheelhaase, J.D. and Grimme, W.G., Emissions trading for international aviation – an estimation of the economic impact on selected European airlines, J Air Transport Management, 2007, 13, (5), pp 253–263.Google Scholar
19. Mendes, L.M.Z. and Santos, G., Using economic instruments to address emissions from air transport in the European Union, Environment and Planning A, 2008, 40, pp 189–209.Google Scholar
20. Sausen, R., Isaksen, I., Grewe, V., Hauglustaine, D., Lee, D.S., Myhre, G., Kohler, M.O., Pitari, G., Schumann, U., Stordal, F. and Zerefos, C., Aviation radiative forcing in 2000: An update on IPCC (1999), Meteorologische Zeitschrift, 2005, 14, (4), pp 555–561.Google Scholar
21. Williams, V. and Noland, R.B., Variability of contrail formation conditions and the implications for policies to reduce the climate impacts of aviation, Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2005, 10, (4), pp 269–280.Google Scholar
22. Penner, J.E., Lister, D.G., Griggs, D.J., Dokken, D.J. and McFarland, M., Aviation and the Global Atmosphere; a Special Report of IPCC Working Groups I and III, IPCC, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 1999.Google Scholar
23. Berghof, R., Schmitt, A., Middel, J., Eyers, C., Hancoz, R., Gruebler, A. and Hepting, M., Constrained Scenarios on Aviation and Emissions 2050: Final Technical Report, DLR, European Commission, 2005.Google Scholar
24. Owen, B. and Lee, D.S., Allocation of international aviation emissions from scheduled air traffic-Future cases, 2005-2050 (Report 3 of 3). CATE-2006-3(C)-3A, Centre for Air Transport and the Environment, Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, UK, 2006.Google Scholar
25. Vedantham, A. and Oppenheimer, M., Aircraft Emissions and the Global Atmosphere, Environmental Defense Fund, New York, USA. 1994.Google Scholar
26. Vedantham, A. and Oppenheimer, M., Long-term scenarios for aviation: demand and emissions of CO2 and NO2 , Energy Policy, 1998, 26, (8), pp 625–641.Google Scholar
27. CAEP/4-FESG, Report 4. Report of the Forecasting and Economic Analysis Sub-Group (FESG): Long-Range Scenarios, International Civil Aviation Organisation Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection Steering Group Meeting, Camberra, Australia. 1998.Google Scholar
28. Newton, P.J. and Falk, R.S., DTI Forecast of Fuel Consumption and Emissions from Civil Aircraft in 2050 Based on ANCAT/EC2 1992 Data, Department of Trade and Industry, The Stationery Office, London, UK, p 15, 1997.Google Scholar
29. Nakicenovic, N., Davidson, O., Davis, G., Grubler, A., Kram, T., Lebre La Rovere, E., Metz, B., Morita, T., Pepper, W., Sankovski, A., Shukla, P., Swart, R., Watson, R. and Dadi, Z., IPCC Special Report on Emission Scenarios, (Ed) Nakicenovic, N. and Swart, R., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK. 2000.Google Scholar
30. Committee on Climate Change, Meeting the UK aviation target – options for reducing emissions to 2050, Committee on Climate Change, Seacourt, London, UK, 2009.Google Scholar
31. Wood, R., Bleda, M., Randles, S., Anderson, K., Bows, A. and Foottit, A., Aviation in the North West: Emissions, Economics and Organisational Flying: a research report by the Tyndall Centre, Manchester, UK, 2009.Google Scholar
32. Lee, D.S., Owen, B., Graham, A., Fichter, C., Lim, L.L. and Dimitriu, D., Allocation of International aviation emissions from scheduled air traffic – present day and historical Manchester Metropolitan University, Manchester, 2005.Google Scholar
33. Anderson, K. and Bows, A., Reframing the climate change challenge in light of post-2000 emission trends, Philosophical Transactions A, 2008, 366, (1882), pp 3863–3882.Google Scholar
34. Meinshausen, M., What does a 2C target mean for greenhouse gas concentrations? a brief analysis based on multi-gas emission pathways and several climate sensitivity uncertainty estimates, in Avoiding Dangerous Climate Change, Schellnhuber, H.J., Cramer, W., Nakicenovic, N., Wigley, T. and Yohe, G., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 253–279, 2006.Google Scholar
35. Stern, N., Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, Her Majesty’s Treasury, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, 2006.Google Scholar
36. easyJet Andy Harrison’s article in the Financial Times published 14 February 2007: To misquote Monty Python’s The Life of Brian: ‘It’s happening, it’s really happening.’ (cited 23 April 2009), Available from: http://www.easyjet.com/EN/About/information/financial_times_article_andy_harrison.html, 2007.Google Scholar
37. BAA Aviation and climate change, (cited 23 April 2009), Available from: http://www.heathrowairport.com/portal/page/Heathrow%5EGeneral%5EOur+business+and+community%5EHeathrow+and+climate+change%5EAviation+and+climate+change/1590875427b54110VgnVCM20000039821c0a_/448c6a4c7f1b0010VgnVCM200000357e120a_/, 2009.Google Scholar
38. British Airways Aviation & Climate Change: Fast facts (cited 07 January 2010), Available from: https://www.britishairways.com/cms/global/pdfs/csr/sustainable_aviation.pdf, 2007.Google Scholar
39. Boeing, 2008 Environment Report, Boeing, 3, 2008.Google Scholar
40. Leggett, J., Pepper, W.J. and Swart, R.J., Emission Scenarios for the IPCC: An Update, in Climate Change 1992: The Supplementary Report to the IPCC Scientific Assessment, Houghton, J.T., Callander, B.A. and Varney, S.K., Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp 69–95, 1992.Google Scholar
41. Boeing Projects Asia Pacific Will be Largest Aviation Market in World, (cited 9 December 2009), Available from: www.boeing.com/commercial/cmo, 2009.Google Scholar