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Air transport demand estimates for UK domestic and international routes Part 7—demand models*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  04 July 2016

A. P. Ellison
A. P. Ellison*
Affiliation:
Department of Economics, Queen Mary College
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Extract

Demand forecasting is a hazardous business, particularly in civil aviation. Any technique which can improve the accuracy of forecasts will aid the development of the industry, for demand fluctuations are a prime source of aviation's instability. If these fluctuations could be predicted accurately the consequences of wide demand fluctuations could be minimised, but this rarely happens. Many of the causes of the fluctuations are outside the control of the forecaster. Otherwise, ignorance of the relationship between cause and effect is the source of inaccurate predictions. An approach to forecasting, which is designed to overcome the latter, is the application of econometric models. Many of the econometric models in civil aviation are still primitive, yet, much has been expected of them.

Type
Research Article
Information
The Aeronautical Journal , Volume 76 , Issue 736 , April 1972 , pp. 261 - 267
Copyright
Copyright © Royal Aeronautical Society 1972 

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Footnotes

*

Part II will be published in the May issue of the Aeronautical Journal.

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