Air transport demand 2000—through a glass darkly

Extract

One of my US friends in the forecasting fraternity wrote a paper some years ago which he called ‘The Perils of Prediction'. He concluded, on the evidence of successes and failures, that all air traffic forecasters needed to have their heads examined for staying in the business. So why am I here today to talk about air transport demand in the next quarter of a century? Only because I am totally persuaded that the industry cannot do without forecasts —and, moreover, very long term forecasts—of the future volume and nature of demand. I shall examine this proposition in detail shortly. But, in spite of this conviction, you will note that I have added the words ‘through a glass darkly’ to my title. Those of you familiar with St. Paul's Epistle to the Corinthians will remember the words:

'When I was a child, I spoke as a child, I understood as a child, I thought as a child, but when I became a man I put away childish things for now we see through a glass darkly, but then face to face'.