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The estimation of parameters from population data on the general stochastic epidemic

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  01 July 2016

Norman T. J. Bailey  and
Anthony S. Thomas
Norman T. J. Bailey
Affiliation:
World Health Organization, Geneva
Anthony S. Thomas
Affiliation:
World Health Organization, Geneva
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Extract

We consider the usual stochastic model of a general epidemic, consisting of n + 1 homogeneously mixing individuals, assuming that initially when t = 0 there is one infective and n susceptibles (Bailey (1957)). At any time t we suppose that there are r susceptibles still uninfected, s infectives in circulation, and u individuals who have been removed (and are dead, isolated, or recovered and immune), where

Type
III. Results on the General Stochastic Epidemic
Information
Advances in Applied Probability , Volume 3 , Issue 2 , Autumn 1971 , pp. 211 - 214
Copyright
Copyright © Applied Probability Trust 1971 

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References

Bailey, N. T. J. (1957) The Mathematical Theory of Epidemics. Griffin, London Google Scholar