Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T04:46:07.012Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false
Series:   Elements in International Relations

The Selection and Tenure of Foreign Ministers Around the World

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  27 February 2024

Hanna Bäck ,
Alejandro Quiroz Flores  and
Jan Teorell
Hanna Bäck
Affiliation:
Lund University
Alejandro Quiroz Flores
Affiliation:
University of Essex
Jan Teorell
Affiliation:
Stockholm University

Summary

Foreign ministers are prominent actors in foreign affairs, often second only to heads of government in their influence. Yet, despite the growing awareness of the importance of key actors, and their backgrounds, in the study of international relations, foreign ministers remain understudied. In this Element, we make an important empirical contribution by presenting an original dataset on the personal and professional background of foreign ministers, spanning thirteen countries and more than 200 years. We use these data to answer three questions: who are the foreign ministers, why are foreign ministers with particular features appointed, and why do some foreign ministers have longer tenure than others? We find that foreign ministers tend to be men of politics who are appointed both on the basis of their affinity to, and to complement the experiences of, the head of government. We also find that foreign ministers stay longer in office when they perform well or are expected to do so, but that they are more likely to lose their posts when conditions make heads of government more prone to 'pin blame' on them to deflect criticism from foreign policy failures.
Get access

Keywords

foreign ministerssecretaries of statecabinet membersministerial selectiontenure in office
Type
Element
Information
Series: Elements in International Relations
Online ISBN: 9781009441773
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 21 March 2024

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Alexiadou, Despina. 2016. Ideologues, Partisans, and Loyalists: Ministers and Policymaking in Parliamentary Cabinets. Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Alexiadou, Despina, and Gunaydin, Hakan. 2019. “Commitment or Expertise? Technocratic Appointments as Political Responses to Economic Crises.” European Journal of Political Research 58(3): 845–865.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Anderson, Matthew Smith. 1993. The Rise of Modern Diplomacy. London & New York: Longman.Google Scholar
Bäck, Hanna, Debus, Marc, and Müller, Wolfgang C.. 2016. “Intra-party Diversity and Ministerial Selection in Coalition Governments.” Public Choice 166: 355–378.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bäck, Hanna, Teorell, Jan, Von Hagen-Jamar, Alexander, and Quiroz Flores, Alejandro. 2021. “War, Performance and the Survival of Foreign Ministers.” Foreign Policy Analysis 17(2): 1–12.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Box-Steffensmeier, Janet M., and Jones, Bradford S.. 2004. Event History Modelling: A Guide for Social Scientists. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
de Mesquita, Bueno, Bruce, , and Siverson, Randolph. 1995. “War and the Survival of Political Leaders: A Comparative Study of Regime Types and Political Accountability.” American Political Science Review 89: 841–855.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bueno de Mesquita, Bruce, Smith, Alastair, Siverson, Randolph M., and Morrow, James D.. 2003. The Logic of Political Survival. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buzan, Barry, and Lawson, George. 2014. “Rethinking Benchmark Dates in International Relations.” European Journal of International Relations 20(2): 437–462.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Byman, Daniel L., and Pollack, Kenneth M.. 2001. “Let Us Now Praise Great Men: Bringing the Statesman Back In.” International Security 25(4): 107–146.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carlgren, Wilhelm. 1982. “Sweden: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 455–470.Google Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Choi, Ajin. 2003. “Guess Who Did What. Political Leaders and the Management of Territorial Disputes.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 47(3): 251–278.Google Scholar
Chiozza, Giacomo, and Goemans, Hein. 2011. Leaders and International Conflict. Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Coggins, Bridget. 2014. Power Politics and State Formation in the Twentieth Century: The Dynamics of Recognition. Cambridge: Cambridge University PressCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Crichlow, Scott. 2005. “Psychological Influences on the Policy Choices of Secretaries of State and Foreign Ministers.” Cooperation and Conflict: Journal of the Nordic International Studies Association 40(2): 179–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Croco, Sarah and Weeks, Jessica. 2016. “War Outcomes and Leader Tenure,” World Politics 68(4), 577–607.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cromwell, Valeries. 1982. “United Kingdom: The Foreign and Commonwealth Office,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 541–574.Google Scholar
Dallek, Robert. 2007. Nixon and Kissinger: Partners in Power. Harper Perennial.Google Scholar
De Santis, Hugh, and Heinrichs, Waldo. 1982. “United States of America: The Department of State and American Foreign Policy,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 575–604.Google Scholar
Debs, Alexandre, and Goemans, Hein. 2010. “Regime Type, the Fate of Leaders, and War.” American Political Science Review 104: 430–445.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dethan, Georges. 1982. “France: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs since the Nineteenth Century,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 203–224.Google Scholar
Dewan, Torun, and Dowding, Keith. 2005. “The Corrective Effect of Ministerial Resignations on Government Popularity.” American Journal of Political Science 49(1): 46–56.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Doss, Kurt. 1982. “Germany: The History of the German Foreign Office,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 203–224.Google Scholar
Duque, Marina. 2018. “Recognizing International Status: A Relational Approach.” International Studies Quarterly 62: 577–592.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fabry, Mikulas. 2010. Recognizing States: International Society & the Establishment of New States since 1776. Oxford: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fearon, James D. 1995. “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization 49(3): 379–414.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Finer, Samuel E. 1997. The History of Government, I: Ancient Monarchies and Empires. Oxford: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Gandrud, Christopher. 2015. “simPH: An R Package for Illustrating Estimates from Cox Proportional Hazard Models Including for Interactive and Nonlinear Effects.” Journal of Statistical Software 65(i03): 1–20.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goddard, Stacie E. 2009. “When Right Makes Might: How Prussia Overturned the European Balance of Power.” International Security 33(3): 110–142.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goemans, Henk E., Skrede Gleditsch, Kristian, and Chiozza, Giacomo. 2009. “Introducing Archigos: A Data Set of Political Leaders.” Journal of Peace Research 46(2): 183–269.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hagan, Joe D., Everts, Philip P., Fukui, Haruhiro, and Stempel, John D.. 2001. “Foreign Policy by Coalition: Deadlock, Compromise, and Anarchy.” International Studies Review 3(2): 169–216.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hallerberg, Mark, and Wehner, Joachim. 2020. “When Do You Get Economists as Policy Makers?” British Journal of Political Science 50(3): 1193–1205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret G. 1980. “Explaining Foreign Policy Behavior Using the Personal Characteristics of Political Leaders.” International Studies Quarterly 24(1): 7–46.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret G. 2001. “How Decision Units Shape Foreign Policy: A Theoretical Framework.” International Studies Review 3(2): 47–81.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret G., and Hermann, Charles F.. 1989. “Who Makes Foreign Policy Decisions and How: An Empirical Inquiry.” International Studies Quarterly 33(4): 361–387.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret G., and Thomas, Preston. 1994. “Presidents, advisers, and foreign policy: The effect of leadership style on executive arrangements.” Political Psychology 15(1): 75–96.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hermann, Margaret G., and Hagan, Joe D.. 1998. “International Decision Making: Leadership Matters.” Foreign Policy 110: 124–137.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Holsti, Ole. 1970. “The ‘Operational Code’ Approach to the Study of Political Leaders: John Foster Dulles’ Philosophical and Instrumental Beliefs.” Canadian Journal of Political Science/Revue canadienne de science politique 3(1): 123–157.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., and Stam, Allan C.. 2014. “How Prior Military Experience Influences the Future Militarized Behavior of Leaders.” International Organization 68(3): 527–559.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Stam, Allan, and Ellis, Cali 2015. Why Leaders Fight. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Horowitz, Michael C., Phillip Potter, Todd S. Sechser, , and Stam, . 2018. “Sizing Up the Adversary: Leader Attributes and Coercion in International Conflict.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(10): 2180–2204.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hsu, Immanuel. 1982. “The Development of the Chinese Foreign Office in the Ch’ing Period,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 119–134.Google Scholar
Indridason, Indridi, and Kam, Christopher. 2008. “Cabinet Reshuffles and Ministerial Drift.” British Journal of Political Science 38(4): 621–656.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Huber, John D., and Martinez-Gallardo, Cecilia. 2008. “Replacing Cabinet Ministers: Patterns of Ministerial Stability in Parliamentary Democracies.” American Political Science Review 102(2): 169–180.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hudson, Valerie. 2005. “Foreign Policy Analysis: Actor Specific Theory and the Ground of International Relations.” Foreign Policy Analysis 1: 1–30.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jackson, Patrick Thaddeus, and Daniel, Nexon. 1999. “Relations before States: Substance, Process, and the Study of World Politics.” European Journal of International Relations 5(3): 291–333.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jones, Benjamin T., and Metzger, Shawna. 2019. “Different Words, Same Song: Advice for Substantively Interpreting Duration Models.” PS: Political Science & Politics 52(4): 691–695.Google Scholar
Jönsson, Christer and Martin, Hall. 2005. Essence of Diplomacy. London: Palgrave Macmillan.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Juliet, Kaarbo, and Hermann, Margaret G.. 1998. “Leadership Styles of Prime Ministers: How Individual Differences Affect the Foreign Policymaking Process.” The Leadership Quarterly 9(3): 243–263.Google Scholar
Christopher, Kam, and Indridason, Indridi H.. 2005. “The Timing of Cabinet Reshuffles in Five Westminster Parliamentary Systems.” Legislative Studies Quarterly 30(3): 327–363.Google Scholar
Kam, Christopher, Bianco, William T., Itai, Sened, and Regina, Smyth. 2010. Ministerial selection and intraparty organization in the contemporary British parliament. American Political Science Review 104(2), 289–306.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Keele, Luke. 2010. “Proportionally Difficult: Testing for Nonproportional Hazards in Cox Models.” Political Analysis 18(2): 189–205.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinne, Brandon J. 2014. “Dependent Diplomacy: Signaling, Strategy, and Prestige in the Diplomatic Network.” International Studies Quarterly 58: 247–259.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kissinger, Henry A. 1994. Diplomacy. New York: Simon & Schuster.Google Scholar
Kowert, Paul A., and Hermann, Margaret G.. 1997. “Who Takes Risks? Daring and Caution in Foreign Policy Making.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 41(5): 611–637.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Daniel, Krcmaric, Nelson, Stephen C., and Roberts, Andrew. 2020. “Studying Leaders and Elites: The Personal Biography Approach.” Annual Review of Political Science 23(1): 133–151.Google Scholar
Kuneralp, Sinan. 1982. “Turkey: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs under the Ottoman Empire and the Turkish Republic,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 493–514.Google Scholar
Leira, Halvard. 2019. “The Emergence of Foreign Policy.” International Studies Quarterly 63: 187–198.Google Scholar
Levy, Jack. 1983. War in the Modern Great Power System, 1495–1975. Lexington: University Press of Kentucky.Google Scholar
Licht, Amanda A. 2011. “Change Comes with Time: Substantive Interpretation of Nonproportional Hazards in Event History Analysis.” Political Analysis 19(2): 227–243.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Markowitz, Jonathan N., and Fariss, Christopher J.. 2018. “Power, proximity, and democracy: Geopolitical competition in the international system.” Journal of Peace Research 55(1): 78–93.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mitzen, Jennifer. 2005. “Reading Habermas in Anarchy: Multilateral Diplomacy and Global Public Spheres.” American Political Science Review 99(3): 401–417.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Modelski, George. 1970. “The World’s Foreign Ministers: A Political Elite.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 14(2): 135–175.Google Scholar
Morrow, James D. 1989. “Capabilities, Uncertainty, and Resolve: A Limited Information Model of Crisis Bargaining.” American Journal of Political Science 33(4): 941–972.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neto, Octavio Amorim, and Strøm, Kaare. 2006. “Breaking the Parliamentary Chain of Delegation: Presidents and Non-partisan Cabinet Members in European Democracies.” British Journal of Political Science 36(4): 619–643.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neumann, Iver B. 2012. At Home with the Diplomats. Ithaca: Cornell University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Neumayer, Eric. 2008. “Distance, Power and Ideology: Diplomatic Representation in a World of Nationstates.” Area 40(2): 228–236.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Nicolson, Harold. 1939. Diplomacy. London: Thornton Butterworth.Google Scholar
Nish, Ian. 1982. “Japan: The Foreign Ministry,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 327–344.Google Scholar
Osterhammel, Jürgen. 2014. The Transformation of the World: A Global History of the Nineteenth Century. Princeton: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Palmer, Glenn, D’Orazio, Vito, Kenwick, Michael, and Lane, Matthew. 2015. “The MID4 Data Set: Procedures, Coding Rules, and Description.” Conflict Management and Peace Science 32(2): 222–242.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sunhee, Park, and Hendry, David J.. 2015. “Reassessing Schoenfeld Residual Tests of Proportional Hazards in Political Science Event History Analyses.” American Journal of Political Science 59(4): 1072–1087.Google Scholar
Preston, Thomas. 2001. The President and His Inner Circle: Leadership Style and the Advisory Process in Foreign Policy Making. New York: Columbia University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quiroz Flores, Alejandro. 2009. “The Political Survival of Foreign Ministers.” Foreign Policy Analysis 5(2): 117–133.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quiroz Flores, Alejandro. 2016. Ministerial Survival During Political and Cabinet Change. Foreign Affairs, Diplomacy and War. London: Routledge.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Quiroz Flores, Alejandro. 2022. Survival Analysis: A New Guide for Social Scientists. Elements Series in Quantitative and Computational Methods. Cambridge University Press. In Press.Google Scholar
Quiroz Flores, Alejandro, and Smith, Alastair. 2011. “Leader Survival and Cabinet Change.” Economics and Politics 23(3): 345–366.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Risse, Thomas. 2000. “‘Let’s Argue!’: Communicative Action in World Politics.” International Organization 54(1): 1–39.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Rumpler, Helmut. 1982. “Austria: The Foreign Ministry of Austria and Austria-Hungary 1848 to 1918,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 33–48.Google Scholar
Satow, Ernest Mason. 1922. A Guide to Diplomatic Practice: Vol. 1. London: Longmans.Google Scholar
Saunders, Elizabeth N. 2017. “No Substitute for Experience: Presidents, Advisers, and Information in Group Decision Making.” International Organization 71(S1): S219–S247.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Serra, Enrico. 1982. “Italy: The Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 297–326.Google Scholar
Sharp, Paul. 1999. “For Diplomacy: Representation and the Study of International Relations.” International Studies Review 1(1): 33–57.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Shea, Patrick E., and Paul, Poast. 2018. “War and Default.” Journal of Conflict Resolution 62(9): 1876–1904.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smyth, Denis. 1982. “Spain: Spain’s First Secretariat of State, Ministry of State and Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 423–454.Google Scholar
Strøm, Kaare. 2003. “Parliamentary Democracy and Delegation” in Strøm, K., Muller, W. C., and Bergman, T., eds. Delegation and Accountability in Parliamentary Democracies. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 55–108.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Svolik, Milan. 2012. The Politics of Authoritarian Rule. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teorell, Jan, Bäck, Hanna and von Hagen-Jamar, Alexander. 2018. “Foreign Ministers and State Recognition in the Long 19th Century,” Unpublished paper. Department of Political Science, Lund University.Google Scholar
Teorell, Jan. 2023. “Rules of Recognition? Explaining Diplomatic Representation since the Congress of Vienna.” Cooperation and Conflict 58(2): 155–174.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Teorell, Jan, Coppedge, Michael, Lindberg, Staffan and Skaaning, Svend-Erik. 2019. “Measuring Polyarchy across the Globe, 1900–2017,” Studies in Comparative International Development 54(1): 71–95.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trager, Robert F. 2010. “Diplomatic Calculus in Anarchy: How Communication Matters.” American Political Science Review 104(2): 347–368.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trager, Robert F. 2016. “The Diplomacy of War and Peace.” Annual Review of Political Science 19(1): 205–228.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Uldricks, Teddy. 1982. “Union of Soviet Socialist Republics: The Tsarist and Soviet Ministry of Foreign Affairs,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 513–540.Google Scholar
von Hagen-Jamar, Alexander., and Hanna, Bäck. 2018. “Politicians, Soldiers and Diplomats: A Comparative Analysis of Foreign Minister Experience and the Initiation and Escalation of International Disputes.” Unpublished manuscript, Lund: Lund UniversityGoogle Scholar
Wels, Cornelis B. 1982. “Netherlands: The Foreign Policy Institutions in the Dutch Republic and the Kingdom of the Netherlands,” in Steiner, Zara, ed. The Times Survey of Foreign Ministries of the World. London: Times Books, 363–390.Google Scholar
Wu, Cathy Xuanxuan, and Wolford, Scott. 2018. “Leaders, States, and Reputations.” Journal of Conflict Resolution :62(10): 2087–2117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

The Selection and Tenure of Foreign Ministers Around the World
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

The Selection and Tenure of Foreign Ministers Around the World
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

The Selection and Tenure of Foreign Ministers Around the World
Available formats
×