Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-f554764f5-c4bhq Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2025-04-15T11:35:37.177Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

The Political Dynamics of Partisan Polarization

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  20 March 2025

Eric R. Schmidt
Affiliation:
Millsaps College
Edward G. Carmines
Affiliation:
Indiana University
Paul M. Sniderman
Affiliation:
Stanford University

Summary

This is a study of the dynamics of partisan polarization in the United States. It has three objectives: (1) to identify and explain why some Republicans and Democrats – but not others – have polarized, particularly over the last twenty years; (2) to demonstrate that they have done so not on this or that issue but systematically, programmatically – domain versus issue sorting; and (3) to bring into the open profound asymmetries in polarization between the two parties, not least that Republicans polarized early and thoroughly on issues of race, while Democrats in the largest number stayed neutral or even conservative until only recently. Emerging from the reasoning and results is a revised theory of party identification that specifies the conditions under which ordinary Republicans and Democrats can become ideological partisans – real-life conservatives and liberals in their behavior – in the choices they make on candidates, policies, and parties.
Get access
Type
Element
Information
Online ISBN: 9781009472760
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication: 27 March 2025

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

Element purchase

Temporarily unavailable

References

Abramowitz, A. I. (2010). The Disappearing Center: Engaged Citizens, Polarization, and American Democracy. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Abramowitz, A. I. (2013). The Polarized Public: Why American Government is So Dysfunctional. New York: Pearson Longman.Google Scholar
Abramowitz, A. I. (2015). The new American electorate: Partisan, sorted, and polarized. In Thurber, J. A. & Yoshinaka, A., eds., American Gridlock. New York: Cambridge University Press, pp. 1944.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, A. I. (2018). The Great Alignment: Race, Party Transformation, and the Rise of Donald Trump. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, A. I. & Saunders, K. L. (1998). Ideological realignment in the U.S. electorate. Journal of Politics 60(3): 634652.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, A. I. & Saunders, K. L. (2006). Exploring the bases of partisanship in the American electorate: Social identity vs. ideology. Political Research Quarterly 59(2): 175187.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramowitz, A. I. & Saunders, K. L. (2008). Is polarization a myth? Journal of Politics 70(2): 542555.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Achen, C. H. (1975). Mass political attitudes and the survey response. American Political Science Review 69: 12181231.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Achen, C. H. & Bartels, L. M. (2017). Democracy for Realists. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Aldrich, J. H., Bae, S., & Sanders, B. K. (2024). The Fundamental Voter: American Electoral Democracy, 1952–2020. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Allamong, M. B., Beutel, B., Jeong, J., & Kellstedt, P. M. (N.d.). Open-ended survey responses and political conceptualizations in a polarized era. Unpublished working paper.Google Scholar
Adams, G. D. (1997). Abortion: Evidence of an issue evolution. American Journal of Political Science 41(3): 718737.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
American National Election Studies. (1999). ANES 1988 time series study full release [dataset and documentation]. May 21, 1999 version. https://electionstudies.org/data-center/1988-time-series/.Google Scholar
American National Election Studies. (2021). ANES 2020 time series study full release [dataset and documentation]. February 10, 2022 version. https://electionstudies.org/data-center/2020-time-series-study/.Google Scholar
American National Election Studies. (2022). Time series cumulative data file (1948–2020) [dataset and documentation]. September 16, 2022 version. https://electionstudies.org/data-center/anes-time-series-cumulative-data-file/.Google Scholar
Ansolabehere, S., Rodden., J., & Snyder, J. M. (2008). The strength of issues: Using multiple measures to gauge preference stability, ideological constraint, and issue voting. American Political Science Review 102(2): 215232.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ansolabehere, S. & Schaffner, B. F. (2017). CCES common content, 2016. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/GDF6Z0, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:6:WhtR8dNtMzReHC295hA4cg== [fileUNF].Google Scholar
Arceneaux, K. & Vander Wielen, R. J. (2017). Taming Intuition. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Atkinson, M. L., Coggins, K. E., Stimson, J. A., & Baumgartner, F. R. (2021). The Dynamics of Public Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bafumi, J. & Shapiro, R. Y. (2009). A new partisan voter. Journal of Politics 71(1): 124.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bandura, A. (1986). Social Foundations of Thought and Action. Englewood Heights, NJ: Prentice-Hall.Google Scholar
Bandura, A. (2023). Social Cognitive Theory. New York: Wiley.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barber, M. & Pope, J. C. (2018). Who is ideological? Measuring ideological consistency in the American public. The Forum 16(1): 97122.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Barber, M. & Pope, J. C. (2019). Does party trump ideology? Disentangling party and ideology in America. American Political Science Review 113(1): 3854.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bartels, L. M. (2018). Partisanship in the Trump era. Journal of Politics 80(4): 14831494.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Broockman, D. (2016). Approaches to studying policy representation. Legislative Studies Quarterly 41(1): 181215.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Campbell, A. P., Converse, P. E., Miller, W. E., & Stokes, D. E. (1960). The American Voter. New York: John Wiley and Sons.Google Scholar
Campbell, J. E. (2016). Polarized: Making Sense of a Divided America. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmines, E. G., Ensley, M. J., & Wagner, M. W. (2012). Who fits the left-right divide? Partisan polarization in the American electorate. American Behavioral Scientist 56(12): 16311653.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carmines, E. G. & Stimson, J. A. (1989). Issue Evolution: Race and the Transformation of American Politics. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Carsey, T. M. & Layman, G. C. (2006). Changing sides or changing minds? Party identification and policy preferences in the American electorate. American Journal of Political Science 50(2): 464477.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Claggett, W. J. M. & Shafer, B. E. (2010). The American Public Mind: The Issues Structure of Mass Politics in the Postwar United States. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Clayton, K. (2024). The Public’s Response to Incremental Democratic Backsliding and Effective Solutions. PhD dissertation, Stanford University.Google Scholar
Converse, P. E. (1964). The nature of belief systems in mass publics. In Apter, D., ed., Ideology and Discontent. New York: Free Press, pp. 206261.Google Scholar
Costa, M. (2021). Ideology, not affect: What Americans want from political representation. American Journal of Political Science 65(2): 342358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dennis, J. (1988a). Political independence in America, part I: On being an independent partisan supporter. British Journal of Political Science 18: 77109.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dennis, J. (1988b). Political independence in America, part II: Towards a theory. British Journal of Political Science 14: 197219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dennis, J. (1992). Political independence in America, part II: In search of closet partisans. Political Behavior 14: 197219.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Dias, N. & Lelkes, Y. (2022). The nature of affective polarization: Disentangling policy disagreement from partisan identity. American Journal of Political Science 66(3): 775790.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Diermeier, D. & Li, C. (2019). Partisan affect and elite polarization. American Political Science Review 113(1): 277281.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Downs, A. (1957). An Economic Theory of Democracy. New York: Harper and Row.Google Scholar
Druckman, J. N., Klar, S., Krupnikov, Y., Levendusky, M., & Ryan, J. B. (2024). Partisan Hostility and American Democracy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elder, E. M. & O’Brian, N. (2022). Social groups as the source of political belief systems: Fresh evidence on an old theory. American Political Science Review 116(4): 14071424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ellis, C. & Stimson, J. A. (2012). Ideology in America. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Elliott, K. J. (2024). What is it like to be a partisan? Measures of partisanship and its value for democracy. Perspectives on Politics 22(3): 584598.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Erikson, R. S., MacKuen, M. B., Stimson, J. A. (2002). The Macro Polity. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Feldman, S. & Johnston, C. (2014). Understanding the determinants of political ideology: Implications of structural complexity. Political Psychology 35(3): 337358.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fiorina, M. P. (2017). Unstable Majorities. Stanford, CA: Hoover Institution Press.Google Scholar
Fiorina, M. P., Abrams, S. J., & Pope, J. C. (2011). Culture War? The Myth of a Polarized America. New York: Pearson Longman Press.Google Scholar
Fowler, A., Hill, S. J., Lewis, J. B., et al. (2023). Moderates. American Political Science Review 117: 643660.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Fowler, A., Huber, G. A., Jin, R., & Orr, L. V. (N.d.) Why are you a Democrat? Studying the origins of party identification and partisan animosity with open-ended survey questions. Unpublished working paper.Google Scholar
Freeder, S., Lenz, G. S., & Turney, S. (2018). The importance of knowing ‘what goes with what’: Reinterpreting the evidence on policy attitude stability. Journal of Politics 81(1): 274290.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gärdenfors, P. (2020). Can we use conceptual spaces to model moral principles? Review of Philosophy and Psychology 12: 373395.Google Scholar
Gärdenfors, P. (2000). Conceptual Spaces: The Geometry of Thought. Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gilens, M. (1999). Why Americans Hate Welfare: Race, Media, and the Politics of Antipoverty Policy. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goggin, S. N., Henderson, J. A., & Theodoridis, A. G. (2020). What goes with red and blue? Mapping partisan and ideological associations in the minds of voters. Political Behavior 42: 9851013.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goren, P. (2005). Party identification and core political values. American Journal of Political Science 49(4): 881896.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Goren, P. (2013). On Voter Competence. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Goren, P., Federico, C. M., & Kittilson, M. C. (2009). Source cues, partisan identities, and political value expression. American Journal of Political Science 53(4): 805820.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Graham, M. H. & Svolik, M. W. (2020). Democracy in America? Partisanship, polarization, and the robustness of support for democracy in the United States. American Political Science Review 114(2): 392409.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Green, D., Palmquist, B., &. Schickler, E. (2002). Partisan Hearts and Minds. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.Google Scholar
Grossman, M. & Hopkins, D. (2016). Asymmetric Politics: Ideological Republicans and Group Interest Democrats. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hacker, J. & Pierson, P. (2010). Winner-Take-All Politics: How Washington Made the Rich Richer and Turned its Back on the Middle Class. New York: Simon and Schuster.Google Scholar
Hare, C. (2022). Constrained citizens? Ideological structure and conflict extension in the U.S. electorate, 1980-2016. British Journal of Political Science 52(4): 16021621.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hare, C., Highton, B., & Jones, B. (2024). Assessing the structure of policy preferences: A hard test of the low-dimensionality hypothesis. Journal of Politics 86(2): 672686.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hersh, E. (2020). Politics is for Power. New York: Scribner.Google Scholar
Hetherington, M. J. (2009). Putting polarization in perspective. British Journal of Political Science 39(2): 413448.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hill, S. J. & Tausanovitch, C. (2017). Southern realignment, party sorting, and the polarization of American primary electorates, 1958–2012. Public Choice 176: 107132.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hopkins, D. J. (2023). Stable Condition: Elites’ Limited Influence on Health Care Attitudes. New York: Russell Sage Foundation.Google Scholar
Huddy, L., Mason, L., & Aarøe, L. (2015). Expressive partisanship: Campaign involvement, political emotion, and partisan identity. American Political Science Review 109(1): 117.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, S., Sood, G., & Lelkes, Y. (2012). Affect, not ideology: A social identity perspective on polarization. Public Opinion Quarterly 76(3): 405431.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, S. & Krupenkin, M. (2018). The strengthening of partisan affect. Political Psychology 39: 201218.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Iyengar, S. & Westwood, S. (2015). Fear and loathing across party lines: New evidence for group polarization. American Journal of Political Science 59(3): 690707.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kabaservice, G. (2012). Rule and Ruin: The Downfall of Moderation and the Destruction of the Republican Party, from Eisenhower to the Tea Party. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Katznelson, I. (2014). Fear Itself: The New Deal and the Origins of Our Time. New York: W. W. Norton.Google Scholar
Keith, B. E., Magleby, D. B., Nelson, C. J., Orr, E. A., & Westlye, M. C. (1992). The Myth of the Independent Voter. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinder, D. R. & Kalmoe, N. P. (2017). Neither Liberal nor Conservative: Ideological Innocence in the American Public. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Klar, S. & Krupnikov, Y. (2016). Independent Politics. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kozlowski, A. C. & Murphy, J. P. (2021). Issue alignment and partisanship in the American public: Revisiting the “partisans without constraint” thesis. Social Science Research 94: 102948.CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Layman, G. C. (2001). The Great Divide: Religious and Cultural Conflict in American Party Politics. New York: Columbia University Press.Google Scholar
Layman, G. C. & Carsey, T. M. (2002). Party polarization and conflict extension in the American electorate. American Journal of Political Science 46(4): 786802.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Leege, D. C., Wald, K. D., Krueger, B. S., & Mueller, P. D. (2002). The Politics of Cultural Differences: Social Change and Voter Mobilization Strategies in the Post-New Deal Period. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Lenz, G. S. (2009). Learning and opinion change, not priming: Reconsidering the priming hypothesis. American Journal of Political Science 53(4): 821837.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lenz, G. S. (2012). Follow the Leader? How Voters Respond to Politicians’ Policies and Performance. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, M. S. (2009). The Partisan Sort. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Levendusky, M. S. (2010). Clearer cues, more consistent voters: A benefit of elite polarization. Political Behavior 32(1): 111131.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lewis, A. (2017). The Rights Turn in Conservative Christian Politics: How Abortion Transformed the Culture Wars. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lodge, M. & Taber, C. S. (2013). The Rationalizing Voter. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Long, J. A. (2022). jtools: Analysis and Presentation of Social Scientific Data. R package version 2.2.0, https://cran.r-project.org/package=jtools.Google Scholar
Luker, K. (1985). Abortion and the Politics of Motherhood. Berkeley, CA: University of California Press.Google Scholar
Lupton, R. N., Myers, W. M., & Thornton, J. R. (2015). Political sophistication and the dimensionality of elite and mass attitudes, 1980−2004. Journal of Politics 77(2): 368380.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mann, T. & Ornstein, N. (2012). It’s Even Worse than It Looks. New York: Basic Books.Google Scholar
Mansbridge, J. (1986). Why We Lost the ERA. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, L. (2014). “I disrespectfully agree”: The differential effects of partisan sorting on social and issue polarization. American Journal of Political Science 59(1): 126145.Google Scholar
Mason, L. (2018). Uncivil Agreement: How Politics Became Our Identity. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Mason, L. & Wronski, J. (2018). One tribe to bind them all: How our social group attachments strengthen partisanship. Political Psychology 39: 257277.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
McCarty, N., Poole, K. T., & Rosenthal, H. M. (2016). Polarized America: The Dance of Ideology and Unequal Riches (2nd ed.) Cambridge, MA: MIT Press.Google Scholar
Noel, H. (2013). Political Ideologies and Political Parties in America. New York: Cambridge University Press.Google Scholar
Olapido, G. (2021). Minneapolis voters reject bid to replace police with public safety department. The Guardian, November 3.Google Scholar
Orr, L. V., Fowler, A., & Huber, G. A. (2023). Is affective polarization driven by identity, loyalty or substance? American Journal of Political Science 67(4): 948962.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Orr, L. V. & Huber, G. A. (2020). The policy basis of measured partisan animosity in the United States. American Journal of Political Science 64(3): 569586.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Parker, K. & Hurst, K. (2021). Growing share of americans say they want more spending on police in their area. www.pewresearch.org/short-read/2021/10/26/growing-share-of-americans-say-they-want-more-spending-on-police-in-their-area/.Google Scholar
Pierson, P. & Schickler, E. (2020). Madison’s Constitution under stress: A developmental analysis of political polarization. Annual Review of Political Science 1 6: 101127.Google Scholar
Pierson, P. & Schickler, E. (2024). Partisan Nation: The Dangerous New Logic of American Politics in a Nationalized Era. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.Google Scholar
Poole, K. T. & Rosenthal, H. (2011). Ideology and Congress (2nd ed.). New Brunswick, NJ: Transaction.Google Scholar
R Development Core Team. (2008). R: A Language and Environment for Statistical Computing. Vienna, Austria: R Foundation for Statistical Computing. ISBM 3–900051–07–0, www.R-project.org.Google Scholar
Rae, N. C. (1989). The Decline and Fall of the Liberal Republicans. New York: Oxford University Press.Google Scholar
Rogowski, J. C. & Sutherland, J. L. (2016). How ideology fuels affective polarization. Political Behavior 38(2): 485508.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Schier, S. E. & Eberly, T. (2016). Polarized: The Rise of Ideology in American Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.Google Scholar
Shafer, B. E. & Claggett, W. J. M. (1995). The Two Majorities: The Issue Context of Modern American Politics. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Simonovits, G., McCoy, J., & Littvvay, L. (2022). Democratic hypocrisy and out-group threat: Explaining citizen support for democratic erosion. Journal of Politics 84(3): 18061811.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Smith, R. M. & King, D. (2024). America’s New Racial Battle Lines. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sniderman, P. S. & Carmines, E. G. (1997). Reaching Beyond Race. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sniderman, P. M., Brody, R. A, & Tetlock, P. C. (1991). Reasoning and Choice: Explorations in Political Psychology. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Sniderman, P. M. & Stiglitz, E. H. (2012). The Reputational Premium: A Theory of Party Identification and Policy Reasoning. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.Google Scholar
Schaffner, B., Ansolabehere, S., & Luks, S. (2021). Cooperative election study common content, 2020. https://doi.org/10.7910/DVN/E9N6PH, Harvard Dataverse, V4, UNF:6:zWLoanzs2F3awt+875kWBg== [fileUNF].Google Scholar
Tesler, M. (2016). Post-Racial or Most-Racial? Race and Politics in the Obama Era. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Valentino, N. & Sears, D. O. (2005). Old times there are not forgotten: Race and partisan realignment in the contemporary South. American Journal of Political Science 49(3): 672688.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wattenburg, M. (2019). The changing nature of mass belief systems: The rise of concept and policy ideologues. Critical Review 31(2): 198229.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Webster, S. W. & Abramowitz, A. I. (2017). The ideological foundations of affective polarization in the U.S. electorate. American Politics Research 45(4): 621647.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Wickham, H. (2016). ggplot2: Elegant Graphics for Data Analysis. New York: Springer-Verlag. ISBN 978-3-319-24277-4, https://ggplot2.tidyverse.org.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zaller, J. R. (1992). The Nature and Origins of Mass Opinion. New York: Cambridge University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Zingher, J. N. (2022). Political Choice in a Polarized America. New York: Oxford University Press.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save element to Kindle

To save this element to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

The Political Dynamics of Partisan Polarization
Available formats
×

Save element to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

The Political Dynamics of Partisan Polarization
Available formats
×

Save element to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

The Political Dynamics of Partisan Polarization
Available formats
×