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3 - Real Exchange Rates and Export Performance in Oil-dependent Arab Economies*

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  05 July 2016

Ibrahim Elbadawi  and
Hoda Selim
By
Ibrahim Elbadawi  and
Linda Kaltani
Ibrahim Elbadawi
Affiliation:
Dubai Economic Council and Economic Research Forum (ERF), Egypt
Hoda Selim
Affiliation:
Economic Research Forum (ERF), Egypt
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Summary

Abstract

Diversifying oil economies toward manufacturing and more sophisticated products and services is one of the most pressing public policy challenges facing these countries. This paper provides new evidence about the impact of oil rents and real exchange rate (RER) undervaluation on various measures of exports, using a global sample spanning 1980–2011. Our results suggest that RER undervaluation can ameliorate the negative impact of oil rents on exports, and that it can be particularly effective in countries with underdeveloped financial markets or low institutional development. In the light of these findings, the paper argues that a strategy of depreciating the real currency can be a viable, albeit second best, industrial policy choice in order to promote export diversification, technical upgrading and export sophistication in institutionally-deficient oil and mineral-dependent economies. Moreover, this type of public policy can minimize the reliance on traditional vertical industrial policy, which usually requires high initial institutional capacity in order to succeed.

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Understanding and Avoiding the Oil Curse in Resource-rich Arab Economies , pp. 44 - 81
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2016

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