Conclusion: Turkey and the West – What Next?

Summary

This chapter reflects on the book’s findings and elucidates three major factors behind Turkey’s intra–alliance opposition behavior: 1) international systemic and regional sub–systemic factors; 2) irreconcilable interests due to lack of progress in its EU accession talks, US support for Syrian Kurds at the expense of Turkey’s key interests in the Middle East, the unresolved Cyprus problem, Turkey’s resentment for its exclusion from European and Middle Eastern security developments by its transatlantic partners, causing biases and mistrust in Turkey’s relations with the EU, the USA, and NATO; and 3) domestic factors. It then explores three potential scenarios on the future of Turkey’s relations with the West and argues that the factors outlined here provoke unease and reinforce ambitions on the part of Turkey to provide a hedge against the West. It places the book’s findings in a larger context of intra–alliance opposition/conflict and discusses the implications of its findings for the IR literature. It argues that Turkish hard balancing is on the horizon and concludes by making recommendations for engaging Turkey in a mutually beneficial way.