3 - States, nations, and war

Summary

This chapter further develops the theoretical argument made in chapter 2 on the causal relations between the state-to-nation imbalance and regional war proneness. I argue that there is a need to distinguish between underlying and proximate causes of regional war. Regional factors, rather than global forces, account for regional war proneness; more specifically, the state-to-nation imbalance is the key underlying cause of regional war proneness. I then present the details of this balance: the various forces that reinforce the balance versus those that challenge it. Next, I introduce the combined effects of variations in the two main dimensions of the balance (state-to-nation congruence and state strength) on variations in state war proneness. This should produce “observable implications” of the theory (King et al. 1994). The chapter then presents the causal relations between the state-to-nation imbalance and regional war proneness and provides some empirical evidence to support these relations. I also elaborate on the effects of the two outputs of the state-to-nation imbalance — revisionism and failed states — and the linkages between them. Finally, I introduce the relations between the state-to-nation imbalance and the proximate causes of war, notably the security dilemma, profit, and scapegoating.

The argument

We have to distinguish between underlying and proximate causes of regional war. The key underlying factor that determines the extent of regional war proneness is the state-to-nation balance in a certain region.