Thailand in 2015: The Waiting Game

Summary

In Thailand, 2015 was a tough year for the impatient. Politics and economic development came to a near standstill in the expectation of the imminent death of King Bhumibol. Prime Minister General Prayuth Chan-o-cha and his men want to be in charge when the life of the world's richest and longest-reigning monarch comes to an end. But the King kept breathing on the sixteenth floor of Siriraj Hospital on the banks of the ever-winding Chao Phraya River, while unaccountable elites positioned themselves for the post-Bhumibol era. The generals continued to play the waiting game and held the country hostage. A process to write a new constitution, the twentieth since the end of the absolute monarchy in 1932, was exposed as a sham when an admittedly flawed draft was rejected, only to set in motion another cycle of consultations, writing and, presumably, rejection to keep the junta in power indefinitely.

Meanwhile, the features of the next reign began to take shape. As Crown Prince Vajiralongkorn reached for the crown, some of his former confidants dropped like flies, allegedly aided by Thailand's generals. If the purge and death of would-be allies is anything to go by, the rule of Rama X will be marked by insecurity and instability. King Bhumibol had allowed people to use his royal charisma to legitimize their own agendas as long as these did not threaten the monarchy's interests and exalted position. While Thais were “working towards the monarchy” in that way, the stability of the crown seemed fairly secure. The recent alleged murders of individuals who attached themselves to the Crown Prince, such as Major General Phisitsak Seniwong Na Ayutthaya, the Prince's main bodyguard, however, intensified fears that anyone who got close to Vajiralongkorn would get burned like Icarus, who sought proximity to the sun, only to fall to his death. Hence, the generals might find it difficult to keep a lid on the country's boiling pot.

But even without a vengeful royal hothead, the country's simmering tensions brought about by grave structural changes in the social makeup of Thailand over the past decades are bound to transform the country sooner or later. The suppression of democracy that continued in 2015 with the arrests of academics, students, journalists and critics of the junta and the monarchy has to be seen in this light.