Myanmar: The Future Takes Form — But Little Change in Sight

Summary

The military regime, headed by the State Peace and Development Council (SPDC), in 2006 further consolidated its ranks, relocated to a new capital, and at year's end looked poised to wrap up the long-running constitutional assembly and retire control to a loyal successor regime, possibly by 2008. The National League for Democracy (NLD) made a last-ditch effort to gain a role in the transition by offering to recognize the SPDC as the lawful government in return for convening of the elected parliament, while democracy activists abroad celebrated another campaign “victory” as the UN Security Council adopted Myanmar on its formal agenda. But neither conciliatory gestures nor threats had any apparent effect on the military leaders who seemingly remain supremely confident in their own judgement. With competition for Myanmar's rich energy resources intensifying, any notion that economic failure could force the military to accommodate demands for reform also appears increasingly implausible. While the regime may change, the prospects for substantive changes in power or policy in the near term look slim.

Military Politics

Despite its long-standing hold on power, the Myanmar military has never claimed a right to rule directly. Since they first assumed the reigns of government in 1988, the generals have struggled to find a way to return titular sovereignty to civilians without relinquishing actual control of the country. They were unsuccessful in their first attempt in 1990 when the election failed to produce a compliant parliament, and hit another snag five years later when the NLD, the landslide winners of that election, refused to cooperate in the drafting of a constitution designed to institutionalize a leading role for the military in politics (and limit its own). But this time, it appears, they are not going to take “no” for an answer.

Consolidating the military hierarchy

One of the most difficult challenges facing the ruling military council since its birth in 1988 has been the power vacuum created by the concomitant departure of former strongman Ne Win, whose towering influence over the army and the country had defined so much of its post-independence history.