Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-cd9895bd7-gbm5v Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-12-25T09:04:36.502Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

11 - A Perspective on the Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States

from Part VI - A Concluding Perspective

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  21 October 2021

By
John W. Diamond  and
George R. Zodrow
Edited by
John W. Diamond  and
George R. Zodrow
John W. Diamond
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
George R. Zodrow
Affiliation:
Rice University, Houston
Get access

Summary

The chapters in this volume provide insightful and provocative discussion of many of the issues related to whether the United States is likely to continue on the robust growth path of earlier years or whether economic growth is likely to decelerate or even enter an extended period of “secular stagnation.” In this concluding chapter, the editors of the volume tie together some of the threads that appear in the various chapters, extend the analyses in several directions, and discuss some policy implications. The discussion is organized around three themes: (i) technology and productivity growth; (ii) labor markets and economic growth, including the importance of human capital accumulation and the role of immigration; and (iii) fiscal policy, including both expenditure and tax reform.

Keywords

technology and productivity growthlabor markets and economic growthhuman capital accumulationimmigrationfiscal policyexpenditure reformtax reform
Type
Chapter
Information
Prospects for Economic Growth in the United States , pp. 321 - 333
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2021

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Abramitzky, Ran, and Boustan, Leah Platt, 2016. “Immigration in American Economic History.” NBER Working Paper No. 21882. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Abramitzky, Ran, Boustan, Leah Platt, Jácome, Elisa, and Pérez, Santiago, 2019. “Intergenerational Mobility of Immigrants in the U.S. over Two Centuries.” NBER Working Paper No. 26408. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Acemoglu, Daron, and Restrepo, Pascual, forthcoming. “Robots and Jobs: Evidence from U.S. Labor Markets.” Journal of Political Economy.Google Scholar
Bell, Alex, Chetty, Raj, Jaravel, Xavier, Petkova, Neviana, and van Reenen, John, 2018. “Who Becomes an Inventor in America? The Importance of Exposure to Innovation.” Quarterly Journal of Economics 134 (2), 647–713.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Berg, Andrew, Buffie, Edward F., and Zanna, Luis-Felipe, 2018. “Should We Fear the Robot Revolution? (The Correct Answer Is Yes).” IMF Working Paper WP/18/116. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Center for American Entrepreneurship, 2017. Immigrant Founders of the 2017 Fortune 500. Center for American Entrepreneurship, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Clausing, Kimberly, 2109a. “Fixing the Five Flaws of the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act.” Reed College, Portland, OR.Google Scholar
Clausing, Kimberly, 2019b. Open: The Progressive Case for Free Trade, Immigration, and Global Capital. Harvard University Press, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Climate Leadership Council, 2018. “Exceeding Paris: How the Baker-Shultz Carbon Dividends Plan Would Significantly Exceed the U.S. Paris Commitment.” Climate Leadership Council, Washington, DC, www.clcouncil.org/media/Exceeding-Paris.pdf.Google Scholar
Cohen, Tyler, 2011. The Great Stagnation: How America Ate All the Low-Hanging Fruit of Modern History, Got Sick, and Will (Eventually) Feel Better. Penguin Group, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Congressional Budget Office, 2019. The 2019 Long-Term Budget Outlook. Congressional Budget Office, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Congressional Research Service, 2019. “U.S. Research and Development Funding and Performance: Fact Sheet.” Congressional Research Service, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Duflo, Esther, and Banerjee, Abhijit, 2019. “Economic Incentives Don’t Always Do What We Want Them To.” New York Times, October 26, www.nytimes.com/2019/10/26/opinion/sunday/duflo-banerjee-economic-incentives.html.Google Scholar
Frey, Carl Benedikt, and Osborne, Michael A., 2017. “The Future of Employment: How Susceptible Are Jobs to Computerization?” Technological Forecasting and Social Change 114 (January), 254–80.Google Scholar
Goger, Annelies, 2019. “Displaced Workers Need More Than What Economists Are Suggesting.” Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Gordon, Robert J., 2016. The Rise and Fall of American Growth: The U.S. Standard of Living Since the Civil War. Princeton University Press, Princeton, NJ and Oxford, UK.CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hicks, Michael J., and Devaraj, Srikant, 2015. “The Myth and the Reality of Manufacturing in America.” Center for Business and Economic Research, Ball State University, Muncie, IN.Google Scholar
Hoxby, Caroline, and Turner, Sarah, 2013. “Expanding College Opportunities for High-Achieving, Low-Income Students.” Working Paper. Stanford University, Stanford, CA.Google Scholar
Kerr, Sari Pekkala, and Kerr, William R., 2016. ”Immigrant Entrepreneurship.” NBER Working Paper No. 22385. National Bureau of Economic Research, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Litan, Robert, 2016. “Wage Insurance: A Potentially Bipartisan Way to Help the Middle Class.” Brookings Institution, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
McAfee, Andrew, and Brynjolfsson, Eric, 2017. Machine, Platform, Crowd: Harnessing Our Digital Future. W.W. Norton, New York, NY.Google Scholar
McKeehan, Margaret, and Zodrow, George R., 2017. “Balancing Act: Weighing the Factors Affecting the Taxation of Capital Income in a Small Open Economy.” International Tax and Public Finance 24 (1), 1–35.Google Scholar
McKinsey Global Institute, 2017. “Jobs Lost, Jobs Gained: Workforce Transitions in a Time of Automation.” McKinsey & Company, New York, NY.Google Scholar
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), 2016. Back to Work: United States: Improving the Re-employment Prospects of Displaced Workers. OECD Publishing, Paris.Google Scholar
Osborne, Michael, and Carl, Frey, 2018. “Automation and the Future of Work: Understanding the Numbers.” Oxford Martin School, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK, www.oxfordmartin.ox.ac.uk/blog/automation-and-the-future-of-work-understanding-the-numbers/.Google Scholar
Osterman, Paul, 2019. “Employment and Training for Mature Adults: The Current System and Moving Forward.” MIT Sloan School of Management, Cambridge, MA.Google Scholar
Peralta-Alva, Adrian, and Roitman, Agustin, 2018. “Technology and the Future of Work.” IMF Working Paper WP/18/207. International Monetary Fund, Washington, DC.Google Scholar
Summers, Lawrence, 2016. “A Disaster Is Looming for American Men.” Washington Post, September 29.Google Scholar
Zodrow, George R., 1988. “The Windfall Recapture Tax: Issues of Theory and Design.” Public Finance Quarterly 16 (4), 387–424.CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×