Skip to main content Accessibility help
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-dh8gc Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-07T07:51:15.105Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

Chapter 10 - Predictability of coupled processes

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  03 December 2009

Axel Timmermann
Affiliation:
IPRC, SOEST, University of Hawai'i, Honolulu
Fei-Fei Jin
Affiliation:
Department of Meteorology, Florida State University, Tallahassee
Tim Palmer
Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Renate Hagedorn
Affiliation:
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
Get access

Summary

Image of the first page of this content. For PDF version, please use the ‘Save PDF’ preceeding this image.'
Type
Chapter
Information
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2006

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

An, S. I. and Jin, F.-F. (2000). An Eigen analysis of the interdecadal changes in the structure and frequency of the ENSO mode. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 2573–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Arnéodo, A., Elezgaray, J., Pearson, J. and Russo, T. (1991). Instabilities of front patterns in reactin-diffusion systems. Physica D., 49, 141–60CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aurell, E.et al. (1997). Predictability in the large: an extension of the concept of Lyapunov exonent. J. Phys. A, 30, 1CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Bofetta, G., Giuliani, P., Paladin, G. and Vulpiani, A. (1998). An extension of the Lyapunov analysis for the predictability problem. J. Atmos. Sci., 55, 3409–162.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Breiman, L. and Friedman, J. H. (1985). Estimating optimal transformations for multiple regression and correlation (with discussion). J. Am. Stat. Assoc., 80, 580CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Burgers, G. and Stephenson, D. B. (1999). The normality of El Niño. Geophys. Res. Lett., 26, 1027–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Casdagli, M. (1989). Nonlinear prediction of chaotic time series. Physica D, 35, 335–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Farrell, B. F. and Ioannou, P. J. (1996). Generalized stability theory. I: Autonomous operators. J. Atmos. Sci., 53, 2025–402.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Frankignoul, C. and K. Hasselmann (1977). Stochastic climate models. II: Application to sea-surface temperature anomalies and thermocline variability. Tellus, 29, 289–305CrossRef
Gill, A. (1980). Some simple solutions for the heat-induced tropical circulation. Quart. J. Roy. Meteor. Soc., 106, 447–62CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Grötzner, A., Latif, M., Timmermann, A. and Voss, R. (1999). Interannual to decadal predictability in a coupled ocean–atmosphere general circulation model. J. Climate, 12, 2607–242.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Haken, H. (1978). Synergetics: An Introduction, 2nd edn. SpringerCrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hasselmann, K. (1976). Stochastic climate models. 1: Theory. Tellus, 28, 473–85CrossRef
Hegger, R., Kantz, H. and Schreiber, T. (1999). Practical implementation of nonlinear time series methods: the TISEAN package. Chaos, 9, 413CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Hendon, H. H. and Glick, J. (1997). Intraseasonal air-sea interactions in the tropical Indian and Pacific Oceans. J. Climate, 10, 647–612.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jin, F.-F. (1997). An equatorial ocean recharge paradigm for ENSO. I: Conceptual model. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 8112.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Jin, F.-F., An, S. I., Timmermann, A. and Zhang, X. (2003). Strong El Niño events and nonlinear dynamical heating. Geophys. Res. Lett., 30, 1120CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleeman, R. (1991). A simple model of the atmospheric response to ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies. J. Atmos. Sci., 48, 3–182.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kleeman, R. and Moore, A. M. (1997). A theory for the limitation of ENSO predictability due to stochastic atmospheric transients. J. Atmos. Sci., 54, 753–672.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Landsea, C. W. and Knaff, J. A. (2000). How much skill was there in forecasting the very strong 1997–98 El Niño?Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 81, 2107–192.3.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lorenz, E. N. (1963). Deterministic non-periodic flow. J. Atmos. Sci., 20, 1302.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lorenz, E. N. (1969). The predictability of a flow which possesses many scales of motion. Tellus, 21, 289CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Lorenz, E. N. (1975). Climate predictability. In The Physical Bases of Climate and Climate Modeling, pp. 132–6. GARP Publication Series 16. World Meteorological OrganizationGoogle Scholar
Metzger, S. M., Latif, M. and Fraedrich, K. (2004). Combining ENSO forecasts: a feasibility study. Mon. Wea. Rev., 132, 456–722.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Moore, A. M. and Kleeman, R. (1999). Stochastic forcing of ENSO by the intraseasonal oscillation. J. Climate, 12, 1199–2202.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pasmanter, R. A. and Timmermann, A. (2003). Cyclic Markov chains with an application to an intermediate ENSO model. Nonlinear Proc. Geoph., 203, 197–210CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Roulston, M. and Neelin, J. D. (2000). The response of an ENSO model to climate noise, weather noise and intraseasonal forcing. Geophys. Res. Lett., 27, 3723–6CrossRef
Schreiber, T. and Schmitz, A. (1996). Improved surrogate data for nonlinear tests. Phys. Rev. Lett., 77, 635CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Stockdale, T. N., Anderson, D. L. T., Alves, J. O. S. and Balmsadea, M. A. (1998). Global seasonal rainfall forecasts using a coupled ocean-atmosphere model. Nature, 392, 370–3CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Syu, H.-H. and Neelin, J. D. (2000). ENSO in a hybrid coupled model. I: sensitivity to physical parametrizations. Clim. Dynam., 16, 19–34CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmermann, A., Latif, M., Bacher, A., Oberhuber, J. and Roeckner, E. (1999a). Increased El Niño frequency in a climate model forced by future greenhouse warming. Nature, 398, 694–6CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmermann, A., Latif, M. and Voss, R. (1999b). Modes of climate variability as simulated by the coupled atmosphere-ocean model ECHAM3/LSG. I: ENSO-like climate variability and its low-frequency modulation. Clim. Dynam., 15, 605–18CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmermann, A., Voss, H. and Pasmanter, R. (2001). Empirical dynamical system modeling of ENSO using nonlinear inverse techniques. J. Phys. Oceanogr., 31, 1579–982.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmermann, A. (2003). Decadal ENSO amplitude modulations: a nonlinear mechanism. Global Planet. Change, 135–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Timmermann, A., Jin, F.-F. and Abshagen, J. (2003). A nonlinear theory for El Niño bursting. J. Atmos. Sci., 60, 152–652.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Torrence, C. and Compo, G. P. (1998). A practical guide to wavelet analysis. Bull. Am. Meteorol. Soc., 79, 61–782.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Trefethen, L. N., Trefethen, A. E., Reddy, S. C. and Driscoll, T. A. (1993). Hydrodynamic stability without eigenvalues. Science, 261, 578–84CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Voss, H. and Kurths, J. (1997). Reconstruction of nonlinear time delay models from data by the use of optimal transformations. Phys. Lett. A, 234, 336–44CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Voss, H. (2001). Analyzing nonlinear dynamical systems with nonparametric regression. In Nonlinear Dynamics and Statistics, ed. Mees, A. I., pp. 413–34. Boston: BirkhäuserGoogle Scholar
Zebiak, S. and Cane, M. (1987). A model of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Mon. Weather Rev., 115, 2262–782.0.CO;2>CrossRefGoogle Scholar

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

Available formats
×