Skip to main content Accessibility help

We use cookies to distinguish you from other users and to provide you with a better experience on our websites. Close this message to accept cookies or find out how to manage your cookie settings.

Close cookie message
×
Hostname: page-component-78c5997874-4rdpn Total loading time: 0 Render date: 2024-11-08T04:51:32.337Z Has data issue: false hasContentIssue false

3 - The epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: contributions to infectious disease epidemiology

Published online by Cambridge University Press:  14 January 2010

By
Azra Ghani  and
Marie-Claude Boily
Edited by
George Ellison ,
Melissa Parker  and
Catherine Campbell
Azra Ghani
Affiliation:
Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, University of London, London W2 1PG, UK
Marie-Claude Boily
Affiliation:
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention Statistics and Data Management Branch, Atlanta GA 30333, USA; Centre de Recherche, Centre Hospitalier affilié Universitaire de Quebec, Canada
George Ellison
Affiliation:
South Bank University, London
Melissa Parker
Affiliation:
Brunel University
Catherine Campbell
Affiliation:
London School of Economics and Political Science
Get access

Summary

Introduction

The emergence of HIV/AIDS in the mid-1980s challenged the theoretical basis of epidemiology. From the beginning of the epidemic, HIV/AIDS imposed its rules by successfully attacking and eluding host defence mechanisms, by infecting all strata of different populations and continents in successive epidemic waves of variable amplitude, and by interacting with many other diseases. The propensity of the infection to spread and be maintained in the population, and the difficulty in altering its course with prevention efforts, has forced scientists to develop innovative methodological and preventive approaches to help understand and control the spread of HIV/AIDS.

In this chapter we illustrate from an epidemiological perspective how progress has been made in understanding and controlling the transmission of HIV/AIDS. The primary aim of epidemiology can be split into four areas: to characterise patterns of disease spread (descriptive epidemiology); to understand the factors underlying its spread (theoretical epidemiology); to predict its future course in the absence of intervention; and to evaluate the best options for treatment and control. A great deal has already been written on the first of these areas characterising the spread of this new disease throughout the world. Our focus in this chapter is therefore on the latter three aspects. Throughout the chapter, our emphasis is on the use of theoretical models of HIV/AIDS transmission, which have been instrumental in improving our understanding of the factors allowing the disease to persist and spread, in understanding the course of the disease, and in evaluating the effectiveness of various control strategies.

Type
Chapter
Information
Learning from HIV and AIDS , pp. 59 - 87
Publisher: Cambridge University Press
Print publication year: 2003

Access options

Get access to the full version of this content by using one of the access options below. (Log in options will check for institutional or personal access. Content may require purchase if you do not have access.)

References

Ades, A. E. and Medley, G. F. (1994). Estimates of disease incidence in women based on antenatal or neonatal seroprevalence data: HIV in New York City. Statistics in Medicine 13: 1881–1894CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Amundsen, E. J., Aalen, O. O., Stigum, H.et al. (2000). Back-calculation based on HIV and AIDS registers in Denmark, Norway and Sweden 1977–95 among homosexual men: estimation of absolute rates, incidence rates and prevalence of HIV. Journal of Epidemiology and Biostatistics 5: 233–243Google ScholarPubMed
Anderson, R. M. and May, R. M. (1988). Epidemiological parameters of HIV transmission. Nature 333: 514–519CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Anderson, R. M. and May, R. M. (1991). Infectious Diseases of Humans: Dynamics and Control. Oxford: Oxford University Press
Anderson, R. M., May, R. M., Boily, M. C., Garnett, G. P. and Rowley, J. T. (1991). The spread of HIV-1 in Africa: sexual contact patterns and the predicted demographic impact of AIDS. Nature 352: 581–589CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Aral, S. O. and Roegner, R. (2000). Mathematical modeling as a tool in STD prevention and control: a decade of progress, a millenium of opportunities. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 27: 556–557CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Auvert, B., Buve, A., Ferry, B.et al. (2001). Ecological and individual level analysis of risk factors for HIV infection in four urban populations in sub-Saharan Africa with different levels of HIV infection. AIDS 15: S15–S30CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Babiker, A., Darby, S., Angelis, D.et al. (2000). Time from HIV-1 seroconversion to AIDS and death before widespread use of highly-active antiretroviral therapy: a collaborative re-analysis. Lancet 355: 1131–1137Google Scholar
Bellocco, R. and Marschner, I. C. (2000). Joint analysis of HIV and AIDS surveillance data in back-calculation. Statistics in Medicine 19: 297–3113.0.CO;2-6>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Blower, S. M. and Boe, C. (1993). Sex acts, sex partners, and sex budgets – implications for risk factor-analysis and estimation of HIV transmission probabilities. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology 6: 1347–1352Google ScholarPubMed
Boily, M-C. and Anderson, R. M. (1996). Human immunodeficiency virus transmission and the role of other sexually transmitted diseases: measures of association and study design. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 23: 312–332CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boily, M-C., Desai, K. N., Masse, B. R., Alary, M. and Anderson, R. M. (1999). Some important issues in the design of Phase III HIV vaccine efficacy trials. Vaccine 17: 989–1004CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boily, M-C., Lowndes, C. and Alary, M. (2000a). Complementary hypotheses concerning the community STD mass treatment puzzle in Rakai, Uganda. AIDS 27: 558–571Google Scholar
Boily, M-C., Lowndes, C. and Alary, M. (2002). The impact of HIV epidemic phases on the effectiveness of core group interventions: insights from mathematical models. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 78 (Suppl. 1): i78–i90CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Boily, M-C., Poulin, R. and Masse, B. (2000b). Some methodological issues in the study of sexual networks: from model to data to model. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 27: 558–571CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brookmeyer, R. and Gail, M. H. (1988). A method for obtaining short-term projections and lower bounds on the size of the AIDS epidemic. Journal of the American Statistical Association 83: 301–308CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Brookmeyer, R. and Gail, M. H. (1994). AIDS Epidemiology: A Quantitative Approach. Oxford: Oxford University Press
Bruneau, J., Lamothe, F., Franco, E.et al. (1997). High rates of HIV infection among injection drug users participating in needle exchange programs in Montreal: results of a cohort study. American Journal of Epidemiology 146: 994–1002CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Brunham, R. C. (1991). The concept of core and its relevance to the epidemiology and control of sexually transmitted diseases. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 18: 67–68CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Buve, A., Carael, M., Hayes, R. J.et al. (2001a). Multicentre study on factors determining differences in rate of spread of HIV in sub-Saharan Africa: methods and prevalence of infection. AIDS 15 (Suppl. 4): S5–S14CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Buve, A., Carael, M., Hayes, R. J.et al. (2001b). The multicentre study on factors determining the differential spread of HIV in four African cities: summary and conclusions. AIDS 15 (Suppl. 4): S127–S131CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Cannon, R. O., Schmid, G. P., Moore, P. S. and Pappaioanou, M. (1989). Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) seroprevalence in persons attending STD clinics in the United States, 1985–1987. Sexually Transmitted Disease 16: 184–189CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Carael, M., Cleland, J., Deheneffe, J. C., Ferry, B. and Ingham, R. (1995). Sexual behaviour in developing countries: implications for HIV control. AIDS 9: 1171–1175CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Chiasson, M. A., Stoneburner, R. L., Lifson, A. R.et al. (1990). Risk factors for human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) infection in patients at a sexually transmitted disease clinic in New York City. American Journal of Epidemiology 131: 208–220CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Day, N. E., Gore, S. M., McGee, M. A. and South, M. (1989). Predictions of the AIDS epidemic in the UK: the use of the back projection method. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 325: 123–134CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Day, S., Ward, H., Bell, G.et al. (1998). Sexual histories, partnerships and networks associated with the transmission of gonorrhoea. International Journal of STD and AIDS 9: 666–671Google ScholarPubMed
Desai, K. (2001). Phase III Clinical Trials of Prophylactic HIV-1 Vaccines: Validation of Efficacy Measures and Sample Size. Quebec: Laval University Faculty of Medicine
Donnelly, C. A. and Cox, D. R. (2001). Mathematical biology and medical statistics: contributions to the understanding of AIDS epidemiology. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 10: 141–154CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Donner, A. and Klar, N. (2000). Design and Analysis of Cluster Randomization Trials in Health Research. London: Arnold
Downs, A. M., Heisterkamp, S. H., Rava, L., Houweling, H., Jager, J. C. and Hamers, F. F. (2000). Back-calculation by birth cohort, incorporating age-specific disease progression, pre-AIDS mortality and change in European AIDS case definition. AIDS 14: 2179–89CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ferguson, N. M., Donnelly, C. A., Donnelly, C. A. and Anderson, R. M. (2001). The foot-and-mouth epidemic in Great Britain: pattern of spread and impact of interventions. Science 292: 1155–1160CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ferry, B., Carael, M., Buve, A.et al. (2001). Comparison of key parameters of sexual behaviour in four African urban populations with different levels of HIV infection. AIDS 15(Suppl. 4): S41–S50CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Flom, P. L., Friedman, S. R., Kottiri, B. J.et al. (2001). Stigmatized drug use, sexual partner concurrency, and other sex risk network and behavior characteristics of 18- to 24-year-old youth in a high-risk neighborhood. Sexually Transmitted Disease 28: 598–607CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Friedman, S. R. (1996). Network methodologies, contact tracing, gonorrhoea and human immunodeficiency virus. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 23: 523–525CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garnett, G. P. and Anderson, R. M. (1993). Contact tracing and the estimation of sexual mixing patterns: the epidemiology of gonococcal infections. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 20: 181–191CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Garnett, G. P., Hughes, J. P., Anderson, R. M.et al. (1996). The determination of the sexual mixing pattern of patients attending STD and other clinics in Seattle, by contact tracing. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 23: 248–257CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ghani, A. C. and Garnett, G. P. (1998). Measuring sexual partner networks for transmission of sexually transmitted diseases. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A 161: 227–238CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Ghani, A. C., Donnelly, C. A. and Garnett, G. P. (1998). Sampling biases and missing data in explorations of sexual partner networks for the spread of sexually transmitted diseases. Statistics in Medicine 17: 2079–20973.0.CO;2-H>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ghani, A. C., Swinton, J. and Garnett, G. P. (1997). The role of sexual partnership networks in the transmission of gonorrhoea. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 24: 45–56CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Giesecke, J. (1994). Modern Infectious Disease Epidemiology. London: Arnold
Gilbert, P. (2001). Interpretability and robustness of sieve analysis models for assessing HIV strain variations in vaccine efficacy. Statistics in Medicine 20: 263–2793.0.CO;2-1>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gras, M. J., Weide, J. F., Langendam, M. W., Coutinho, R. A. and Hoek, A. (1999). HIV prevalence, sexual risk behaviour and sexual mixing patterns among migrants in Amsterdam, The Netherlands. AIDS 13: 1953–1962CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Greenland, S. and Frerichs, R. R. (1988). On measures and models for the effectiveness of vaccines and vaccination programmes. International Journal of Epidemiology 17: 456–463CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gregson, S., Anderson, R. M., Ndlovu, J., Zhuwau, T. and Chandiwana, S. K. (1997). Recent upturn in mortality in rural Zimbabwe: evidence for an early demographic impact of HIV-1 infection? AIDS 11: 1269–1280CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Gregson, S. and Garnett, G. P. (2000). Contrasting gender differentials in HIV-1 prevalence and associated mortality increase in eastern and southern Africa: artefact of data or natural course of epidemics? AIDS 14: S85–S99Google ScholarPubMed
Gregson, S., Garnett, G. P. and Anderson, R. M. (1994a). Assessing the potential impact of the HIV-1 epidemic on orphanhood and the demographic structure of populations in sub-Saharan Africa. Population Studies 48: 435–458CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Gregson, S., Garnett, G. P. and Anderson, R. M. (1994b). Is HIV-1 likely to become a leading cause of adult mortality in sub-Saharan Africa? Journal of AIDS 7: 839–852Google Scholar
Grosskurth, H., Gray, R., Hayes, R., Mabey, D. and Wawer, M. (2000). Control of sexually transmitted diseases for HIV-1 prevention: understanding the implications of the Mwanza and Rakai trials. Lancet 355: 8–14CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Grosskurth, H., Mosha, F., Todd, J.et al. (1995). Impact of improved treatment of sexually transmitted diseases on HIV infection in rural Tanzania: randomised controlled trial. Lancet 346: 530–536CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Halloran, M. E. (1998). Statistical issues in phase III vaccine trial design. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 161: 265–272CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Halloran, M. E. and Struchiner, C. J. (1991). Study designs for dependent happenings. Epidemiology 2: 331–338CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Haraldsdottir, S., Gupta, S. and Anderson, R. M. (1992). Preliminary studies of sexual networks in a male homosexual community in Iceland. AIDS 5: 374–381Google Scholar
Hayes, R. (2001). Can RCTs measure the endpoints in which we are interested? International Journal of STD and AIDS 12: 13Google Scholar
Hayes, R. J. (1998). Design of human immunodeficiency virus intervention trials in developing countries. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 161: 251–263CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayes, R. J., Alexander, N. D., Bennett, S. and Cousens, S. N. (2000). Design and analysis issues in cluster-randomized trials of interventions against infectious disease. Statistical Methods in Medical Research 9: 95–116CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Hayes, R. J., Wawer, M., Whitworth, J.et al. (1997). Randomised trials of STD treatment for HIV prevention: report of an international workshop. Genitourinary Medicine 73: 432–443Google ScholarPubMed
Hendriks, J. C., Medley, G. F., Heisterkamp, S. H.et al. (1992). Short-term predictions of HIV prevalence and AIDS incidence. Epidemiology and Infection 109: 149–160Google ScholarPubMed
Hethcote, H. W. and Yorke, J. A. (1984). Gonorrhea: Transmission Dynamics and Control. New York: Springer Verlag
Isham, V. (1988). Mathematical modelling of the transmission dynamics of HIV infection and AIDS: a review. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society A 151: 5–30CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Isham, V. (1989). Estimation of the incidence of HIV infection. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London B 325: 113–121CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jenkins, R. A., Jenkins, P. R., Nannis, E. D., McKee, K. T. Jr and Temoshok, L. R. (2000). Correlates of human immunodeficiency virus infection risk behavior in male attendees of a clinic for sexually transmitted disease. Clinical Infectious Diseases 30: 723–729CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Jochelson, K., Mothibeli, M. and Leger, J. P. (1991). Human immunodeficiency virus and migrant labor in South Africa. International Journal of Health Services 21: 157–173CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Johnson, A. M., Mercer, C. H., Erens, B.et al. (2001). Sexual behaviour in Britain: partnerships, practices, and HIV risk behaviours. Lancet 358: 1835–1842CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Johnson, A. M., Wadsworth, J., Wellings, K. and Fields, J. (1994). Sexual Attitudes and Lifestyles. Oxford: Blackwell Scientific Publications
Jolly, A. M., Muth, S. Q., Wylie, J. L. and Potterat, J. J. (2001). Sexual networks and sexually transmitted infections: a tale of two cities. Journal of Urban Health 78: 433–445CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kamali, A., Quigley, M., Nakiyingi, J.et al. (2003). Syndromic management of sexually-transmitted infections and behaviour change interventions on transmission of HIV-1 in rural Uganda: a community randomised trial. Lancet 361: 645–652CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Keeling, M. J., Woolhouse, M. E., Shaw, D. J.et al. (2001). Dynamics of the 2001 UK foot and mouth epidemic: stochastic dispersal in a heterogeneous landscape. Science 294: 813–187CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Kinsey, A. C., Pomeroy, W. B. and Martin, C. E. (1948). Sexual Behaviour in the Human Male. Philadelphia: WB Saunders
Kinsey, A. C., Pomeroy, W. B., Martin, C. E. and Gebhard, P. H. (1953). Sexual Behaviour in the Human Female. Philadelphia: WB Saunders
Klovdahl, A. S., Potterat, J. J., Woodhouse, D., Muth, J. and Darrow, W. W. (1994). Social networks and infectious diseases: the Colorado Springs study. Social Science and Medicine 38: 79–88CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Koumans, E. H., Farley, T. A., Gibson, J. J.et al. (2001). Characteristics of persons with syphilis in areas of persisting syphilis in the United States: sustained transmission associated with concurrent partnerships. Sexually Transmitted Disease 28: 497–503CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Kretzschmar, M. and Morris, M. (1996). Measures of concurrency in networks and the spread of infectious disease. Mathematical Biosciences 133: 165–195CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Laga, M. (1995). STD control for HIV prevention – it works!Lancet 346: 518–519CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Lagarde, E., Auvert, B., Carael, M.et al. (2001). Concurrent sexual partnerships and HIV prevalence in five urban communities of sub-Saharan Africa. AIDS 15: 877–884CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Laumann, E. O., Gagnon, J. H., Michaels, R. T. and Michaels, S. (1994). The Social Organization of Sexuality: Sexual Practices in the United States. Chicago: Chicago University Press
Lurie, M., Wilkinson, D., Harrison, A. and abdool Karim, S. (1997). Migrancy and HIV/STDs in South Africa–a rural perspective. South African Medical Journal 87: 908–909Google ScholarPubMed
May, R. M. and Anderson, R. M. (1987). Transmission dynamics of HIV infection. Nature 326: 137–142CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Medley, G. F., Anderson, R. M., Cox, D. R. and Billard, L. (1987). Incubation period of AIDS in patients infected via blood transfusion. Nature 328: 719–721CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Medley, G. F., Anderson, R. M., Cox, D. R. and Billard, L. (1988). Estimating the incubation period for AIDS patients. Nature 333: 504–505CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Morris, M., Podhisita, C., Wawer, M. and Handcock, M. (1996). Bridge populations in the spread of HIV/AIDS in Thailand. AIDS 11: 1265–1271CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Padian, N., Marquis, L., Francis, D. P., Anderson, R. E., Rutherford, P. and Winkelstein, W. (1987). Male to female transmission of HIV. Journal of the American Medical Association 258: 788–790CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Padian, N. S., Shiboski, S. C. and Jewell, N. P. (1991). Female-to-male transmission of human-immunodeficiency-virus. Journal of the American Medical Association 266: 1664–1667CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Peterman, T. A., Stoneburner, R. L., Allen, J. R., Jaffe, H. W. and Curran, J. W. (1988). Risk of HIV transmission from heterosexual adults with transfusion associated interactions. Journal of the American Medical Association 259: 55–59CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Pickering, H., Okongo, M., Nnalusiba, B., Bwanika, K. and Whitworth, J. (1997). Sexual networks in Uganda: casual and commercial sex in a trading town. AIDS Care 9: 199–207CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Plummer, F. A., Nagelkerke, N. J. D., Moses, S., Ndinya-Achola, J. O., Bwayo, J. and Ngugi, E. (1991). The importance of core groups in the epidemiology and control of HIV-1. AIDS 5: S169–S176Google ScholarPubMed
Potterat, J. J., Zimmerman-Rogers, H., Muth, S. Q.et al. (1999). Chlamydia transmission: concurrency, reproduction number, and the epidemic trajectory. American Journal of Epidemiology 150: 1331–1339CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Quinn, T. C., Wawer, M. J., Sewankambo, N.et al. (2000). Viral load and heterosexual transmission of human immunodeficiency virus type 1. New England Journal of Medicine 342: 921–929CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenberg, D., Moseley, K., Kahn, R.et al. (1999). Networks of persons with syphilis and at risk for syphilis in Louisiana: evidence of core transmitters. Sexually Transmitted Disease 26: 108–114CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenberg, P. S. and Biggar, R. J. (1998). Trends in HIV incidence among young adults in the United States. Journal of the American Medical Association 279: 1894–1899CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rosenberg, P. S. and Goedert, J. J. (1998). Estimating the cumulative incidence of HIV infection among persons with haemophilia in the United States of America. Statistics in Medicine 17: 155–1683.0.CO;2-O>CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rothenberg, R. B., Long, D. M., Sterk, C. E.et al. (2000). The Atlanta Urban Networks Study: a blueprint for endemic transmission. AIDS 14: 2191–200CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Rothenberg, R. B., Potterat, J. J., Woodhouse, D. E., Muth, S. Q., Darrow, W. W. and Klovdahl, A. S. (1998). Social network dynamics and HIV transmission. AIDS 12: 1259–1536CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Spira, A., Bajos, N. and the ACSF Group (1994). Sexual behaviour and AIDS. Aldershot: Avebury
Stoner, B. P., Whittington, W. L., Hughes, J. P., Aral, S. O. and Holmes, K. K. (2000). Comparative epidemiology of heterosexual gonococcal and chlamydial networks: implications for transmission patterns. Sexually Transmitted Disease 27: 215–223CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Timaeus, I. (1998). Impact of the HIV epidemic on mortality in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence from national surveys and censuses. AIDS 12: S15–S27Google ScholarPubMed
UNAIDS/WHO (2001). AIDS epidemic update. UNAIDS, 02.58E, http:www.unaids.org
Haastrecht, H. J., Bindels, P. J., Hoek, A. A. and Coutinho, R. A. (1997). Estimating the size of the HIV epidemic among injecting drug users in Amsterdam. European Journal of Epidemiology 13: 261–265CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Ward, H., Ison, C. A., Martin, I.et al. (2000). A prospective social and molecular investigation of gonococcal transmission. Lancet 356: 1812–1817CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wawer, M. J., Sewankambo, N., Serwadda, D.et al. (1999). Control of sexually transmitted diseases for AIDS prevention in Uganda: a randomised community trial. Lancet 353: 525–535CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wilkinson, D., Abdool Karim, S. S., Williams, B. and Gouws, E. (2000). High HIV incidence and prevalence among young women in rural South Africa: developing a cohort for intervention trials. Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome 23: 405–409CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Wilkinson, D., Connolly, C. and Rotchford, K. (1999). Continued explosive rise in HIV prevalence among pregnant women in rural South Africa. AIDS 13: 740CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Williams, B. and Campbell, C. (1996). Mines, migrancy and HIV in South Africa – managing the epidemic. South African Medical Journal 86: 1249–1251Google ScholarPubMed
Woodhouse, D. E., Rothenberg, R. B., Potterat, J. J.et al. (1994). Mapping a social network of heterosexuals at high risk for HIV infections. AIDS 8: 1331–1336CrossRefGoogle Scholar
Yorke, J. A., Hethcote, H. W. and Nold, A. (1978). Dynamics and control of the transmission of gonorrhea. Sexually Transmitted Diseases 5: 51–55CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed
Zaba, B., Boerma, T. and White, R. (2000). Monitoring the AIDS epidemic using HIV prevalence data among young women attending antenatal clinics: prospects and problems. AIDS 14: 1633–1645CrossRefGoogle ScholarPubMed

Save book to Kindle

To save this book to your Kindle, first ensure [email protected] is added to your Approved Personal Document E-mail List under your Personal Document Settings on the Manage Your Content and Devices page of your Amazon account. Then enter the ‘name’ part of your Kindle email address below. Find out more about saving to your Kindle.

Note you can select to save to either the @free.kindle.com or @kindle.com variations. ‘@free.kindle.com’ emails are free but can only be saved to your device when it is connected to wi-fi. ‘@kindle.com’ emails can be delivered even when you are not connected to wi-fi, but note that service fees apply.

Find out more about the Kindle Personal Document Service.

  • The epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: contributions to infectious disease epidemiology
    • By Azra Ghani, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, University of London, London W2 1PG, UK, Marie-Claude Boily, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention Statistics and Data Management Branch, Atlanta GA 30333, USA; Centre de Recherche, Centre Hospitalier affilié Universitaire de Quebec, Canada
  • Edited by George Ellison, South Bank University, London, Melissa Parker, Brunel University, Catherine Campbell, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Book: Learning from HIV and AIDS
  • Online publication: 14 January 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614026.004
Available formats
×

Save book to Dropbox

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Dropbox.

  • The epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: contributions to infectious disease epidemiology
    • By Azra Ghani, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, University of London, London W2 1PG, UK, Marie-Claude Boily, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention Statistics and Data Management Branch, Atlanta GA 30333, USA; Centre de Recherche, Centre Hospitalier affilié Universitaire de Quebec, Canada
  • Edited by George Ellison, South Bank University, London, Melissa Parker, Brunel University, Catherine Campbell, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Book: Learning from HIV and AIDS
  • Online publication: 14 January 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614026.004
Available formats
×

Save book to Google Drive

To save content items to your account, please confirm that you agree to abide by our usage policies. If this is the first time you use this feature, you will be asked to authorise Cambridge Core to connect with your account. Find out more about saving content to Google Drive.

  • The epidemiology of HIV/AIDS: contributions to infectious disease epidemiology
    • By Azra Ghani, Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Faculty of Medicine, Imperial College of Science, Technology and Medicine, University of London, London W2 1PG, UK, Marie-Claude Boily, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for HIV, STD and TB Prevention Statistics and Data Management Branch, Atlanta GA 30333, USA; Centre de Recherche, Centre Hospitalier affilié Universitaire de Quebec, Canada
  • Edited by George Ellison, South Bank University, London, Melissa Parker, Brunel University, Catherine Campbell, London School of Economics and Political Science
  • Book: Learning from HIV and AIDS
  • Online publication: 14 January 2010
  • Chapter DOI: https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9780511614026.004
Available formats
×